The Effectiveness of Community-based Social Distancing for Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey

Abstract

The objective of this study was to demonstrate the effects of community-based social distancing interventions after the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Turkey on the course of the pandemic and to determine the number of prevented cases. Methods: In this ecological study, the interventions implemented in response to the first COVID-19 cases in Turkey were evaluated and the effect of the interventions was demonstrated by calculating the effective reproduction number (Rt) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coro navirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) when people complied with community-based social distancing rules. Results: Google mobility scores decreased by an average of 36.33±22.41 points (range, 2.60 to 84.80) and a median of 43.80 points (interquartile range [IQR], 24.90 to 50.25). The interventions caused the calculated Rt to decrease to 1.88 (95% confidence interval, 1.87 to 1.89). The median growth rate was 19.90% (IQR, 10.90 to 53.90). A positive correlation was found between Google mobility data and Rt (r=0.783; p<0.001). The expected number of cases if the growth rate had not changed was predicted according to Google mobility categories, and it was estimated to be 1 381 922 in total. Thus, community-based interventions were estimated to have prevented 1 299 593 people from being infected. Conclusions: Community-based social distancing interventions significantly decreased the Rt of COVID-19 by reducing human mobility, and thereby prevented many people from becoming infected. Another important result of this study is that it shows health policymakers that data on human mobility in the community obtained via mobile phones can be a guide for measures to be taken.

The effect of different COVID-19 public health restrictions on mobility: A systematic review

“…Of the 14 included studies, four studies included data from multiple countries across Europe, North America, Asia, Australasia and Africa [ 24 , 28 , 30 , 32 ]. Four studies were conducted in the United States of America (USA) [ 19 , 21 , 23 , 25 ] and other studies used data from Australia [ 31 ], Canada [ 26 ], India [ 29 ], Nigeria [ 27 ], South Africa [ 20 ] and Turkey [ 22 ] ( Table 1 ). All studies reported data from the first wave of the pandemic, with Google Mobility Scores included from January to August 2020, with most studies analysing data during the first two months of the pandemic.…”

Geographical Modules of COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh: Social Response and Action Taken

“…Scientific data and academic researchers have also found that the number of individuals infected; through social distancing, models can be significantly reduced [12]. For example, Durmuş et al (2020) [13] have found in their research that where social distancing was applied, there was a substantial decline in the level of infecting people. Social deformity has been seen as the best way to prevent the spread of the disease and almost every country is being advised to follow it.…”

COVID-19: Korunma Stratejileri

“…Sosyal mesafe uygulaması insan hareketliliğini azaltarak bir kişinin hastalığı ortalama kaç kişiye bulaştıracağını gösteren ''R0'' değerini de olumlu yönde etkilemektedir. COVID-19 pandemisi sosyal mesafe kısıtlamaları süresince sağlıklı ve formda kalabilmek için evde yapılabilecek kardiyovasküler egzersizler, kas ve kemik güçlendirme egzersizleri ve eklem güçlendirme egzersizlerini içeren orta derecede rutin egzersizler bağışıklık sistemini güçlü tutabilir (23,24).…”