The Economic Consequences of R = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics

Gans, Joshua S.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3662452

Cited by 11 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…The large economic savings (averted losses) and the marked difference in the probability of contact (Fig.3B) from the targeted isolation strategy arise primarily from shifting the burden of isolating from susceptible to infectious individuals (Fig.3A). Under a voluntary isolation strategy, some infectious individuals continue to work and consume despite the risk they impose on others [38, 39, 40]. This is the key coordination failure that increases the probability of infection (Fig.3B) and forces susceptible individuals to work and consume less to avoid infection (Fig.3A).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative pandemic control strategies

Ash¹,

Bento²,

Kaffine

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Public policy and academic debates regarding mitigation strategies frequently note potential disease-economy trade-offs, and advocate for prioritizing one outcome over the other. Using a calibrated coupled epi-economic model of individual behavior embedded within the broader economy during COVID-19, we show that targeted isolation strategies can avert up to 91% of individual economic losses relative to voluntary isolation strategies. Notably, the economic savings from targeted isolation strategies do not impose an additional disease burden, avoiding disease-economy trade-offs. In contrast, widely-used blanket lockdowns do create sharp disease-economy trade-offs and impose substantial economic costs per marginal case avoided. These results highlight the benefits of targeted isolation strategies for disease control, as they address the fundamental coordination failure between infectious and susceptible individuals which drives the recession. Our coupled-systems framework uses a novel data-driven approach to map economic activities to contacts, which facilitates developing effective mitigation strategies for future novel pathogens. Application of this framework can help control disease spread and avert trillions of dollars in losses.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative pandemic control strategies

Ash¹,

Bento²,

Kaffine

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Further work should also investigate the effect that simultaneously implementing alternative dosing and increased delays between two doses would have on health benefits. Additionally, in future work we plan to consider longer time horizons, accommodating boosters, loss of immunity, and endogenous behavioral response to risk, such that R = 1 for an extended period of time (Gans 2020). We will also explicitly model a global production constraint, not only the problems of individual countries, and will analyze scenarios where it is not possible to maintain strict age prioritization.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… See Sabino et al 2021. 15 Assuming that the epidemic peaks earlier or that vaccinations start in the declining phase of the epidemic would decrease measured vaccine benefits, as discussed in Section 6.1.16 The choice of T might play a bigger role in models where the reproductive number is close to 1, for example, due to behavioral responses to risk, as inGans (2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Could Vaccine Dose Stretching Reduce COVID-19 Deaths?

Więcek

Ahuja

Kremer

et al. 2021

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We argue that alternative COVID-19 vaccine dosing regimens could potentially dramatically accelerate global COVID-19 vaccination and reduce mortality, and that the costs of testing these regimens are dwarfed by their potential benefits. We first use the high correlation between neutralizing antibody response and efficacy against disease (Khoury et. al. 2021) to show that half or even quarter doses of some vaccines generate immune responses associated with high vaccine efficacy. We then use an SEIR model to estimate that under these efficacy levels, doubling or quadrupling the rate of vaccination by using fractional doses would dramatically reduce infections and mortality. Since the correlation between immune response and efficacy may not be fully predictive of efficacy with fractional doses, we then use the SEIR model to show that fractional dosing would substantially reduce infections and mortality over a wide range of plausible efficacy levels. Further immunogenicity studies for a range of vaccine and dose combinations could deliver outcomes in weeks and could be conducted with a few hundred healthy volunteers. National regulatory authorities could also decide to test efficacy of fractional dosing in the context of vaccination campaigns based on existing immune response data, as some did for delayed second doses. If efficacy turned out to be high, the approach could be implemented broadly, while if it turned out to be low, downside risk could be limited by administering full doses to those who had received fractional doses. The SEIR model also suggests that delaying second vaccine doses will likely have substantial mortality benefits for multiple, but not all, vaccine-variant combinations, underscoring the importance of ongoing surveillance. Finally, we find that for countries choosing between approved but lower efficacy vaccines available immediately and waiting for mRNA vaccines, using immediately available vaccines typically reduces mortality.

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“…Knowledge of true prevalence of CoViD-19 is critical for informing policy decisions about how to distribute resources and manage the impacts of CoViD-19 on public health, society and the economy [34] , [35] . The true scale of the epidemic can affect economic development since it reduces long-run economic growth by limiting the size of social networks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data

Palatella¹,

Vanni

Lambert

2021

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

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Estimation of the prevalence of undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections is critical for understanding the overall impact of CoViD-19, and for implementing effective public policy intervention strategies. We discuss a simple yet effective approach to estimate the true number of people infected by SARS-CoV-2, using raw epidemiological data reported by official health institutions in the largest EU countries and the USA.

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The Economic Consequences of R = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics

Cited by 11 publications

References 35 publications

Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative pandemic control strategies

Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative pandemic control strategies

Could Vaccine Dose Stretching Reduce COVID-19 Deaths?

A phenomenological estimate of the true scale of CoViD-19 from primary data

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