Disease-economy trade-offs under alternative pandemic control strategies

Abstract

Public policy and academic debates regarding mitigation strategies frequently note potential disease-economy trade-offs, and advocate for prioritizing one outcome over the other. Using a calibrated coupled epi-economic model of individual behavior embedded within the broader economy during COVID-19, we show that targeted isolation strategies can avert up to 91% of individual economic losses relative to voluntary isolation strategies. Notably, the economic savings from targeted isolation strategies do not impose an additional disease burden, avoiding disease-economy trade-offs. In contrast, widely-used blanket lockdowns do create sharp disease-economy trade-offs and impose substantial economic costs per marginal case avoided. These results highlight the benefits of targeted isolation strategies for disease control, as they address the fundamental coordination failure between infectious and susceptible individuals which drives the recession. Our coupled-systems framework uses a novel data-driven approach to map economic activities to contacts, which facilitates developing effective mitigation strategies for future novel pathogens. Application of this framework can help control disease spread and avert trillions of dollars in losses.

Revisiting the guidelines for ending isolation for COVID-19 patients

“…In both cases, a criterion for determining when to end the isolation phase is needed. Although a longer isolation period may decrease the chance of transmission, it also entails both a higher burden on the mental and physical health of the patient ( Mian et al, 2021 ) and cause higher economic loss ( Ash et al, 2021 ). Scientifically sound guidelines for determining when to end isolation are thus warranted.…”

If You Build it, Will They Vaccinate? The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccine Sites on Vaccination Rates and Outcomes

“…Our results imply an economic cost of $46,929 ($32.85 multiplied by 1,429 required doses to avert one COVID-19 death). Other studies have estimated a statistical-value of life of each COVID-19 death ranging from $4.5 million to $10.6 million (Robinson, Sullivan, and Shogren 2021;Ash et al 2021). Thus, our results imply a 9,500% to 22,500% economic return on the costs of COVID-19 vaccination.…”

“…It is important to note that these estimates are not quantifying the effect of the first, second, or third dose of the vaccine. Using previous estimates of the statistical value of life years lost due to COVID-19 deaths (Robinson, Sullivan, and Shogren 2021;Ash et al 2021), our mortality results imply a 9,500% to 22,500% economic return on the costs of COVID-19 vaccination.…”

Estimation of timing of infection from longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 viral load data: mathematical modelling study

“…Many countries in Europe, Asia, and North America experienced several waves of COVID-19 epidemic, which were slowed down due to stringent lockdown measurements. The lockdown is not a sustainable measure because it downregulated world’s economy and impacted citizens’ health both physically and mentally [ 49 , 50 ]. Therefore, ways to control epidemics without the lockdown measures have been warranted.…”