The Argentina-Brazil Regional Power Transition

Abstract

Almost four decades have passed since the Argenrina-Brazil balance of power gave way to a Brazilian uncontested primacy in the Southern Cone. The peaceful and cooperative nature of this regional power transition poses an interesting puzzle for structurail theories and those concerned with the US-China transition. Why do cer.tain countries accept accommodation more le nie ntly, like Argentina did? I offer an explanatory model and use process tracing to show that key cooperative turns in this bilateral relationship-during the late l 970s and early 1990s-required concurre nt structural changes, both at the inte rnational and domestic levels. My conclusions suggest, against the prevalent narrative, that cooperation between Argentina a nd Brazil was not a product of democracy. Instead, peaceful power transitions take place when the costs of confrontation are high and social coalitions are largely redefined in the declining state. The structure of international politics in the Southern Cone has changed considerably over time. While today's scenario is one of cooperation under ßrazilian unipolari ty, Arge ntine preemine nce was patent a century before, and the two-centuriesold rivalry between these two countries was still in place not many decades ago

Domestic Contestation and Presidential Prerogative in Colombian Foreign Policy

“…For Darnton, the most important costs are intra‐governmental. For Schenoni (), presidents faced shifting domestic social coalitions in responding to international factors, in his case, rapprochement between Argentina and Brazil. When the pro‐rivalry coalition disintegrates, a president is less constrained domestically and so responds to cost signals from the international system.…”

“…The cases below suggest an important role for domestic factors that are poorly incorporated into presidentialist explanations. After exploring the cases, we consider why Darnton's () and Schenoni's () arguments are not sufficient to explain all the cases.…”

“…The role of external constraints is emphasised in LAFPA. Two explanations beyond presidentialism, bureaucratic opposition (Darnton, ) and political coalitions (Schenoni, ) are also considered. While helpful, these explanations do not match the evidence.…”

“…Recent work highlights the importance of bureaucratic opposition or acquiescence (Darnton, ) and coalitional politics (Schenoni, ) to Latin American foreign policymaking. A bureaucratic explanation is congruent with the outcome of the Plan Colombia case, but is partially contradicted in the three divergent cases.…”

Performance of the South American Defense Council Under Autonomy Pressures

“…In terms of regionalism, the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) project allowed for the resolution of various problematic trade and security issues. They included the industrial–commercial complementarity of Argentina and Brazil, along with their economic satellites Paraguay and Uruguay, as well as the reduction of tensions derived from a historical rivalry, which was attempted to be appeased by measures of complex interdependence (Milanese, ; Russell & Tokatlian, ; Schenoni, ). An older bloc that achieved high levels of institutionalization through the “unipolar moment” was the Andean Community (CAN, in Spanish) led by Colombia and Venezuela.…”