Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil

Oliveira, Adriana Valente de; Serrano, Rodrigo Otávio Peréa; Mesquita, Anderson Azevedo; Moreira, José Genivaldo do Vale

doi:10.1590/0102-7786360050

Cited by 6 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 25 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The tted distributions are important tools, notably with regard to relating the probability of an extreme an event, in addition to relating its occurrence to the return period. Consistently, De Oliveira et al (2021) emphasized that such methods constitute structuring elements useful for establishing solutions capable of mitigating the impacts associated with the occurrence or recurrence of potentially harmful events.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In the Brazilian context, the study by De Jesus and Dos Santos Nascimento (2020) is evident, in which the Gumbel distribution allowed the estimation of maximum daily rainfall for the state of Bahia and demonstrated good adherence to the observed values. Returning to the Amazon context, in the study conducted by De Oliveira et al (2021), the Gumbel method proved to be an appropriate tool for the adjustment of rainfall and ow data in the city of Rio Branco, Acre. Thus, it was possible to estimate different qualities of life associated with different levels of hydrological risk, with a goal of establishing plans to mitigate the impacts of extreme events, especially in a scenario of severe ooding.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, the observed values of annual maximum daily rainfall (P 1,d ) were averaged by the weighted average method and were based on observations from the stations that covered the period from 1970 to 2021 (Mizukami and Smith 2012). It is noteworthy that this study was not impacted by missing data, as in other studies conducted in the region (Do Vale Moreira and Naghettini 2016; De Oliveira et al 2021).…”

Section: ; Do Vale Moreira and Naghettini 2016)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Naghettini and Pinto (2007) and De Oliveira et al (2021), the return period associated with a reference quantile , which is the average time interval for the event to recur in any year, is determined by the equation: According to Back and Cadorin (2020), the Anderson-Darling test statistic (A 2 ) is determined by the following equation:…”

Section: De Oliveira Et Al 2021)mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Heavy rainfall events in the state of Acre, western Amazonia

Moreira

Almeida

Silva

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Currently, humanity is unable to prevent extreme hydrological events from occurring. However, the use of appropriate tools to estimate the probability associated with different hydrological variables, such as heavy rainfall, can help mitigate social and environmental damage. The objective of this study was to verify the hypothesis that the maximum rainfall records (over different intervals of duration) from the three main rainfall stations in the state of Acre fit the Gumbel distribution. Additionally, the periods of intense rainfall were evaluated based on the association between rainfall duration and return period. Using the maximum likelihood method, and once the baseline stationarity assumption established by the Mann-Kendall test was met, the relevant equations were fitted to the classical Gumbel model. Adherence to the model was assessed using the Anderson‒Darling test. The fitted distributions allowed the estimation of rainfall intensity for different intervals of duration and return periods for the cities of Cruzeiro do Sul, Tarauacá and Rio Branco. These results are relevant for the implementation of plans aimed at strengthening the water security in the state of Acre.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: ; Do Vale Moreira and Naghettini 2016)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: De Oliveira Et Al 2021)mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Heavy rainfall events in the state of Acre, western Amazonia

Moreira

Almeida

Silva

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Rainfall is one of the hydro-meteorological variables of the greatest significance for society since it triggers other processes such as deluges, torrents, and floods. Additionally, this important hydrological variable can greatly influence society, from the economic and social conditions of the population and its activities, such as power generation, agricultural and industrial activities, besides potentiating the materialization of damages associated with extreme events (Silva et al, 2019;Oliveira et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribuição espaço-temporal das anomalias de precipitação pluviométrica no Acre

Lima

Ferreira

Moreira

et al. 2023

Rev. Bras. Geog. Fis.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

O estudo das modificações na precipitação pluviométrica em amplitude espaço-temporal é essencial para a compreensão da variabilidade das chuvas e dos eventos extremos de baixa e alta precipitação local que podem trazer danos ambientais quanto sociais. Nesse contexto, objetivou-se apresentar um estudo da variação da pluviosidade nas mesorregiões do Acre, utilizando como ferramenta o Índice de Anomalia de Chuva (IAC) para identificar os períodos de maior ou menor severidade dos eventos climáticos. Os dados utilizados foram da precipitação pluviométrica da série histórica de 1970 a 2019, anotados para a mesorregião do Vale do Acre e do Vale do Juruá das estações meteorológicas operadas pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia. Na análise, foi utilizada a estatística descritiva para os dados mensais e o cálculo do IAC a partir das médias anuais de precipitação para a identificação dos anos secos e úmidos das mesorregiões. Verificou-se que o Vale do Acre apresentou um período de estiagem severa (maio a setembro), enquanto no Juruá a estiagem ocorreu em apenas três meses (junho a agosto). A partir do IAC, observou-se que, para a mesorregião Vale do Acre, houve predominância de anos secos, no período de 1970 a 1990, enquanto na mesorregião Vale do Juruá os anos chuvosos foram registrados com maior frequência. Portanto, o Vale do Juruá apresentou período chuvoso prolongado e baixa quantidade de anos secos, enquanto o Vale do Acre apresentou menor período chuvoso e maior severidade dos eventos de anos secos. Concluiu-se que o Índice de Anomalia de Chuva funcionou como uma ferramenta para o monitoramento da severidade dos eventos de chuva e seca nas mesorregiões do estado do Acre. Palavras-chave: Pluviometria, índice de anomalia de chuva, variabilidade climática, Amazônia Ocidental. Space-temporal distribution of rainfall anomalies in Acre A B S T R A C T The study of changes in rainfall in space-time amplitude is essential to understanding the variability of rainfall and extreme events of low and high local precipitation that can cause environmental and social damage. In this context, the objective was to present a study of rainfall variation in the mesoregions of Acre using the Rain Anomaly Index (RAI) as a tool to identify periods of greater or lesser severity of climatic events. The data used were the rainfall of the historical series from 1970 to 2019, recorded for the mesoregion of Vale do Acre and Juruá from the meteorological stations operated by the National Institute of Meteorology. In the analysis, descriptive statistics were used for the monthly data and calculating the IAC from the annual precipitation averages to identify the mesoregions’ dry and wet years. It was found that the Vale do Acre presented a period of severe drought (May to September), while in Juruá, the drought occurred in just three months (June to August). From the IAC, it was observed that for the Vale do Acre mesoregion, there was a predominance of dry years from 1970 to 1990, while in the Vale do Juruá mesoregion, the rainy years were recorded more frequently. Therefore, the Vale do Juruá presented a prolonged rainy period and a low number of dry years, while the Vale do Acre presented a shorter rainy period and greater severity of dry-year events. It was concluded that the Rainfall Anomaly Index worked as a tool to monitor the severity of rainfall and drought events in the mesoregions of Acre. Keywords: pluviometry, rain anomaly index, climate variability, Western Amazon.

show abstract