Abstract:variation of the storm height distribution, thereby providing unique differences in the rainfall amount, intensity, and the diurnal variation.
“…Owing to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and the successive Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite, a variety of precipitation characteristics in early summer, including heavy precipitation, have been revealed throughout East Asia (Takayabu and Hikosaka 2009;Xu et al 2009;Xu 2013;Yokoyama et al 2014Yokoyama et al , 2017Park et al 2016). Based on three-dimensional observations of precipitation by the TRMM satellite-borne Precipitation Radar (PR), Yokoyama et al (2014) showed that precipitation characteristics drastically change in the meridional direction across the baiu front, which is detected as a boundary between the tropics and midlatitudes based on the largescale environment.…”
This study estimates future changes in the early summer precipitation characteristics around Japan using changes in the large-scale environment, by combining Global Precipitation Measurement precipitation radar observations and phase 5 of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project climate model large-scale projections. Analyzing satellite-based data, we first relate precipitation in three types of rain events (small, organized, and midlatitude), which are identified via their characteristics, to the large-scale environment. Two environmental fields are chosen to determine the large-scale conditions of the precipitation: the sea surface temperature and the midlevel large-scale vertical velocity. The former is related to the lower-tropospheric thermal instability, while the latter affects precipitation via moistening/drying of the midtroposphere. Consequently, favorable conditions differ between the three types in terms of these two environmental fields. Using these precipitation–environment relationships, we then reconstruct the precipitation distributions for each type with reference to the two environmental indices in climate models for the present and future climates. Future changes in the reconstructed precipitation are found to vary widely between the three types in association with the large-scale environment. In more than 90% of models, the region affected by organized-type precipitation will expand northward, leading to a substantial increase in this type of precipitation near Japan along the Sea of Japan, and in northern and eastern Japan on the Pacific side, where its present amount is relatively small. This result suggests an elevated risk of heavy rainfall in those regions because the maximum precipitation intensity is more intense in organized-type precipitation than in the other two types.
“…Owing to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and the successive Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite, a variety of precipitation characteristics in early summer, including heavy precipitation, have been revealed throughout East Asia (Takayabu and Hikosaka 2009;Xu et al 2009;Xu 2013;Yokoyama et al 2014Yokoyama et al , 2017Park et al 2016). Based on three-dimensional observations of precipitation by the TRMM satellite-borne Precipitation Radar (PR), Yokoyama et al (2014) showed that precipitation characteristics drastically change in the meridional direction across the baiu front, which is detected as a boundary between the tropics and midlatitudes based on the largescale environment.…”
This study estimates future changes in the early summer precipitation characteristics around Japan using changes in the large-scale environment, by combining Global Precipitation Measurement precipitation radar observations and phase 5 of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project climate model large-scale projections. Analyzing satellite-based data, we first relate precipitation in three types of rain events (small, organized, and midlatitude), which are identified via their characteristics, to the large-scale environment. Two environmental fields are chosen to determine the large-scale conditions of the precipitation: the sea surface temperature and the midlevel large-scale vertical velocity. The former is related to the lower-tropospheric thermal instability, while the latter affects precipitation via moistening/drying of the midtroposphere. Consequently, favorable conditions differ between the three types in terms of these two environmental fields. Using these precipitation–environment relationships, we then reconstruct the precipitation distributions for each type with reference to the two environmental indices in climate models for the present and future climates. Future changes in the reconstructed precipitation are found to vary widely between the three types in association with the large-scale environment. In more than 90% of models, the region affected by organized-type precipitation will expand northward, leading to a substantial increase in this type of precipitation near Japan along the Sea of Japan, and in northern and eastern Japan on the Pacific side, where its present amount is relatively small. This result suggests an elevated risk of heavy rainfall in those regions because the maximum precipitation intensity is more intense in organized-type precipitation than in the other two types.
This study examined the characteristics of the diurnal variations of heavy rainfall (⩾110 mm in 12 hours) in Korea and the related atmospheric circulation for July from 1980–2020. During the analysis period, two dominant pattens of diurnal variation of the heavy rainfall emerged: all-day heavy rainfall (AD) and morning only heavy rainfall (MO) types. For the AD-type, the heavy rainfall is caused by abundant moisture content in conjunction with active convection in the morning (0000–1200, LST; LST = UTC + 9) and the afternoon hours (1200–2400 LST). These systems are related to the enhanced moisture inflow and upward motion induced by the strengthening of the western North Pacific subtropical high and upper-tropospheric jet. For the MO-type, heavy rainfall occurs mostly in the morning hours; the associated atmospheric patterns are similar to the climatology. We find that the atmospheric pattern related to severe heavy rainfalls in 2020 corresponds to a typical AD-type and resembles the 1991 heavy-rainfall system in its overall synoptic/mesoscale circulations. The present results imply that extremely heavy rainfall episodes in Korea during the 2020 summer may occur again in the future associated with the recurring atmospheric phenomenon related to the heavy rainfall.
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