Changes in vegetative growing seasons are dominant indicators of the dynamic response of ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, knowledge of growing seasons over the past decades is essential to predict ecosystem changes. In this study, the long-term changes in the growing seasons of temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere were examined by analyzing satellite-measured normalized difference vegetation index and reanalysis temperature during 1982-2008. Results showed that the length of the growing season (LOS) increased over the analysis period; however, the role of changes at the start of the growing season (SOS) and at the end of the growing season (EOS) differed depending on the time period. On a hemispheric scale, SOS advanced by 5.2 days in the early period (1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999) but advanced by only 0.2 days in the later period (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008). EOS was delayed by 4.3 days in the early period, and it was further delayed by another 2.3 days in the later period. The difference between SOS and EOS in the later period was due to less warming during the preseason (January-April) before SOS compared with the magnitude of warming in the preseason (June-September) before EOS. At a regional scale, delayed EOS in later periods was shown. In North America, EOS was delayed by 8.1 days in the early period and delayed by another 1.3 days in the later period. In Europe, the delayed EOS by 8.2 days was more significant than the advanced SOS by 3.2 days in the later period. However, in East Asia, the overall increase in LOS during the early period was weakened in the later period. Admitting regional heterogeneity, changes in hemispheric features suggest that the longer-lasting vegetation growth in recent decades can be attributed to extended leaf senescence in autumn rather than earlier spring leaf-out.

Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels, assuming all other factors are unchanged. 2) For TC precipitation rates, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase globally, with a median projected increase of 14%, or close to the rate of tropical water vapor increase with warming, at constant relative humidity. 3) For TC intensity, 10 of 11 authors had at least medium-to-high confidence that the global average will increase. The median projected increase in lifetime maximum surface wind speeds is about 5% (range: 1%–10%) in available higher-resolution studies. 4) For the global proportion (as opposed to frequency) of TCs that reach very intense (category 4–5) levels, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase, with a median projected change of +13%. Author opinion was more mixed and confidence levels lower for the following projections: 5) a further poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific; 6) a decrease of global TC frequency, as projected in most studies; 7) an increase in global very intense TC frequency (category 4–5), seen most prominently in higher-resolution models; and 8) a slowdown in TC translation speed.

The summer rainfall over the middle‐lower valley of the Yangtze River and over the whole eastern China experienced a notable regime shift in about 1979. This change is consistent with a simultaneous jump‐like change in the 500 hPa geopotential height (Φ500) over the northern Pacific. The rainfall over the Yangtze River valley is closely related to the Φ500 averaged over the area 20°–25°N, 125°–140°E, with a correlation coefficient of 0.66 for the period 1958–1999. Since 1980, the subtropical northwestern Pacific high (SNPH) has enlarged, intensified, and extended southwestward. The changes in the SNPH are strongly associated with the variations of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the eastern tropical Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. The anomalies of these SSTs, responsible primarily for the shift of the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River through the changes in SNPH, precede the Φ500 signals with different leading times.

An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest detectable TC activity changes in some regions associated with TC track changes, while data quality and quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on TC intensity and frequency. A number of specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible detectable anthropogenic influence on TCs were assessed using the conventional approach of preferentially avoiding type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection). We conclude there is at least low to medium confidence that the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific is detectable, or highly unusual compared to expected natural variability. Opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence, or whether any other observed changes represent detectable changes. The issue was then reframed by assessing evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence while seeking to reduce the chance of type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection). For this purpose, we used a much weaker “balance of evidence” criterion for assessment. This leads to a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection) but which may be useful for risk assessment. Several examples of these alternative statements, derived using this approach, are presented in the report.

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The present study reveals the changes in the characteristics of cold surges over East Asia associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Based on circulation features, cold surges are grouped into two general types: wave train and blocking types. The blocking type of cold surge tends to occur during negative AO periods, that is, the AO-related polarity of the blocking type. However, the wave train type is observed during both positive and negative AO periods, although the wave train features associated with negative AO are relatively weaker. The cold surges during negative AO are stronger than those during positive AO in terms of both amplitude and duration. The cold surges during positive AO in which the extent of effect is confined to inland China passes through East Asia quickly because of weaker Siberian high and Aleutian low, leading to short duration of these cold surges. In contrast, the cold surge during negative AO, characterized by a well-organized anticyclone-cyclone couplet with high pressure over continental East Asia and low pressure over Japan, brings continuous cold air into the entire East Asian region for more than one week with long-lasting cold advection. It is also found that the tracks of the cold surges during negative AO tend to occur more frequently over Korea and Japan and less frequently over China, compared with those during positive AO. The tracks are related to a west-east dipole structure of the ratio of rain conversion to snow according to AO phase, resulting in freezing precipitation or snowfall events over inland China (Korea and Japan) are likely to occur more frequently during the positive (negative) AO periods.

[1] It has been newly found that the occurrence of cold surges in east Asia is significantly influenced by the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In the present study, the events of cold surge are objectively determined based on several synoptic criteria and the phase-dependency of its occurrences in association with the AO has been revealed. During the negative AO phase, the frequency of cold surge occurrence is relatively increased than that of neutral and positive AO phases

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