The ability of eight climate models to simulate the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is examined using diagnostics developed by the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group. Although the MJO signal has been extracted throughout the annual cycle, this study focuses on the boreal winter (November-April) behavior. Initially, maps of the mean state and variance and equatorial space-time spectra of 850-hPa zonal wind and precipitation are compared with observations. Models best represent the intraseasonal space-time spectral peak in the zonal wind compared to that of precipitation. Using the phasespace representation of the multivariate principal components (PCs), the life cycle properties of the simulated MJOs are extracted, including the ability to represent how the MJO evolves from a given subphase and the associated decay time scales. On average, the MJO decay (e-folding) time scale for all models is shorter (;20-29 days) than observations (;31 days). All models are able to produce a leading pair of multivariate principal components that represents eastward propagation of intraseasonal wind and precipitation anomalies, although the fraction of the variance is smaller than observed for all models. In some cases, the dominant time scale of these PCs is outside of the 30-80-day band.Several key variables associated with the model's MJO are investigated, including the surface latent heat flux, boundary layer (925 hPa) moisture convergence, and the vertical structure of moisture. Low-level moisture convergence ahead (east) of convection is associated with eastward propagation in most of the models. A few models are also able to simulate the gradual moistening of the lower troposphere that precedes observed MJO convection, as well as the observed geographical difference in the vertical structure of moisture associated with the MJO. The dependence of rainfall on lower tropospheric relative humidity and the fraction of rainfall that is stratiform are also discussed, including implications these diagnostics have for MJO simulation. Based on having the most realistic intraseasonal multivariate empirical orthogonal functions, principal component power spectra, equatorial eastward propagating outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), latent heat flux, low-level moisture convergence signals, and vertical structure of moisture over the Eastern Hemisphere, the superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) and the ECHAM4/ Ocean Isopycnal Model (OPYC) show the best skill at representing the MJO.

[1] Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S. are found on average to be significantly higher during the middle of the work week than on weekends, attributable to a midweek intensification of afternoon storms and an increase in area with detectable rain. TRMM radar data show a significant midweek increase in the echo-top heights reached by afternoon storms. Weekly variations in model-reanalysis wind patterns over the region are consistent with changes in convection implied by the satellite data. Weekly variations in rain gauge averages are also consistent with the satellite estimates, though possibly smaller in amplitude. A midweek decrease of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic is also seen. EPA measurements of surface particulate concentrations show a midweek peak over much of the U.S. These observations are consistent with the theory that anthropogenic air pollution suppresses cloud-drop coalescence and early rainout during the growth of thunderstorms over land, allowing more water to be carried above the 0°C isotherm, where freezing yields additional latent heat, invigorating the storms and producing large ice hydrometeors. The enhanced convection induces regional convergence, uplifting and an overall increase of rainfall. Compensating downward air motion suppresses convection over the adjacent ocean areas. Pre-TRMM-era data suggest that the weekly cycle only became strong enough to be detectable beginning in the 1980's. Rain-gauge data also suggest that a weekly cycle may have been detectable in the 1940's, but with peak rainfall on Sunday or Monday, possibly explained by the difference in composition of aerosol pollution at that time. This ''weekend effect'' may thus offer climate researchers an opportunity to study the regional climate-scale impact of aerosols on storm development and monsoon-like circulation.

Eastward propagation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) detours the Maritime Continent (MC) region southward during austral summer, exhibiting enhanced convective activity preferentially in the southern part of the MC area with much weaker anomalies in the central MC area. Column‐integrated moist static energy budget of the MJO is analyzed to understand the processes responsible for the MJO detouring. Results show that zonal and meridional moisture advection is the essential process to the MJO detouring, causing the difference between the southern and central MC regions in the moisture recharge before and during the MJO onset. Further analysis reveals that moisture advection by MJO perturbation winds acting upon the background moisture gradient has the dominant contribution to the regional contrast between the central and southern MC areas. The zonal moisture advection is greater in the southern MC region because the zonal gradient of the background moisture field is much steeper in the southern MC area than in the central MC area. The onset of the Australian monsoon in austral summer contributes to the establishment of the sharp zonal moisture gradient in the southern MC region. The meridional moisture advection is weaker in the central MC area because meridional wind anomalies associated with the MJO vary regionally, presumably through interactions with the topography and land‐sea contrast.