In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave–wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China–Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (∼5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback-the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.

[1] Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S. are found on average to be significantly higher during the middle of the work week than on weekends, attributable to a midweek intensification of afternoon storms and an increase in area with detectable rain. TRMM radar data show a significant midweek increase in the echo-top heights reached by afternoon storms. Weekly variations in model-reanalysis wind patterns over the region are consistent with changes in convection implied by the satellite data. Weekly variations in rain gauge averages are also consistent with the satellite estimates, though possibly smaller in amplitude. A midweek decrease of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic is also seen. EPA measurements of surface particulate concentrations show a midweek peak over much of the U.S. These observations are consistent with the theory that anthropogenic air pollution suppresses cloud-drop coalescence and early rainout during the growth of thunderstorms over land, allowing more water to be carried above the 0°C isotherm, where freezing yields additional latent heat, invigorating the storms and producing large ice hydrometeors. The enhanced convection induces regional convergence, uplifting and an overall increase of rainfall. Compensating downward air motion suppresses convection over the adjacent ocean areas. Pre-TRMM-era data suggest that the weekly cycle only became strong enough to be detectable beginning in the 1980's. Rain-gauge data also suggest that a weekly cycle may have been detectable in the 1940's, but with peak rainfall on Sunday or Monday, possibly explained by the difference in composition of aerosol pollution at that time. This ''weekend effect'' may thus offer climate researchers an opportunity to study the regional climate-scale impact of aerosols on storm development and monsoon-like circulation.

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness (suppressed rainfall and reduced tropospheric relative humidity) under CO 2 warming from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model projections. We find a strengthening of the HC manifested in a "deep-tropics squeeze" (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, enhanced ascent, increased high clouds, suppressed low clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200−100 hPa) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence and reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among various water-cycle parameters examined, global dryness is found to have the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide a physical basis for inferring that greenhouse warming is likely to contribute to the observed prolonged droughts worldwide in recent decades.Hadley Circulation | global dryness | global warming | drought T he Hadley Circulation (HC), the zonally averaged meridional overturning motion connecting the tropics and midlatitude, is a key component of the global atmospheric general circulation. How the HC has been or will be changed as a result of global warming has tremendous societal implications on changes in weather and climate patterns, especially the occurrences of severe floods and droughts around the world (1, 2). Recent studies have suggested that the global balance requirement for water vapor and precipitation weakens the tropical circulation in a warmer climate (3, 4). So far, the most robust signal of weakening of tropical circulation from models appears to come from the Walker circulation but not from the HC, possibly because of the large internal variability in the latter (5, 6). Observations based on reanalysis data have shown weak signals of increasing, decreasing, or no change in HC strength in recent decades, with large uncertainties depending on the data source and the period of analyses (7-10). Meanwhile, studies have also shown that even though water vapor is increased almost everywhere as global temperature rises, increased dryness (lack of rainfall and reduced surface relative humidity) is found in observations and in model projections, especially in many land regions around the world (11-13). Reduction in midtropospheric relative humidity and clouds in the subtropics and midlatitude under global warming have also been noted in models and observations, suggesting the importance of cloud feedback and circulation changes (14-16). Even though robust global warming signals have been found in changing rainfall characteristics (2,17,18), in the widening of the subtropics, and in the relative contributions of circulation and surface warming to tropical rainfall from climate model projections and observation...

The radiative effects of Saharan dust aerosols are investigated in the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model. A sectional aerosol microphysics model (CARMA) is run online in GEOS-5. CARMA treats the dust aerosol lifecycle, and its tracers are radiatively coupled to GEOS-5. A series of AMIP-style simulations are performed, in which input dust optical properties (particle shape and refractive index) are varied. Simulated dust distributions for summertime Saharan dust compare well to observations, with best results found when the most absorbing dust optical properties are assumed. Dust absorption leads to a strengthening of the summertime Hadley cell circulation, increased dust lofting to higher altitudes, and a strengthening of the African easterly jet, resulting in increased dust atmospheric lifetime and farther northward and westward transport. We find a positive feedback of dust radiative forcing on emissions, in contrast with previous studies, which we attribute to our having a relatively strong longwave forcing caused by our simulating larger effective particle sizes. This longwave forcing reduces the magnitude of midday net surface cooling relative to other studies, and leads to a nighttime warming that results in higher nighttime wind speeds and dust emissions. The radiative effects of dust particle shape have only minor impact on transport and emissions, with small (~5%) impact on top of atmosphere shortwave forcing, in line with previous studies, but relatively more pronounced effects on shortwave atmospheric heating and surface forcing (~20% increase in atmospheric forcing for spheroids). Shape effects on longwave heating terms are of order~10%.

This paper briefly presents the West African Monsoon (WAM) Modeling and Evaluation Project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models' (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitudeheight cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail 123Clim Dyn (2010) 35:3-27 DOI 10.1007 to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/ uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting the evidence revealed in the analysis using ALMIP data. An analysis of variability of CEOF modes suggests that the Sahara mode leads the WAM evolution, and divergence in simulating this mode contributes to discrepancies in the precipitation simulation.

Dust, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC) aerosols, when deposited onto snow, are known to reduce the albedo of the snow (i.e., snow darkening effect (SDE)). Here using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) with aerosol tracers and a state-of-the-art snow darkening module (GOddard SnoW Impurity Module: GOSWIM) for the land surface, we examine the role of SDE on climate in the boreal spring snowmelt season. SDE is found to produce significant surface warming (over 15 W m À2) over broad areas in midlatitudes, with dust being the most important contributor to the warming in central Asia and the western Himalayas and with BC having larger impact in the Europe, eastern Himalayas, East Asia, and North America. The contribution of OC to the warming is generally low but still significant mainly over southeastern Siberia, northeastern East Asia, and western Canada (~19% of the total solar visible absorption by these snow impurities). The simulations suggest that SDE strengthens the boreal spring water cycle in East Asia through water recycling and moisture advection from the ocean and contributes to the maintenance of dry conditions in parts of a region spanning Europe to central Asia, partially through feedback on the model's background climatology. Overall, our study suggests that the existence of SDE in the Earth system associated with dust, BC, and OC contributes significantly to enhanced surface warming over continents in northern hemisphere midlatitudes during boreal spring, raising the surface skin temperature by approximately 3-6 K near the snowline.

[1] In this paper, we present corroborative observational evidences from satellites, in-situ observations, and reanalysis data showing possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on subseasonal and regional summer monsoon rainfall over India. We find that increased absorbing aerosols in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in recent decades may have led to long-term warming of the upper troposphere over northern India and the Tibetan Plateau, enhanced rainfall in northern India and the Himalayas foothill regions in the early part (May-June) of the monsoon season, followed by diminished rainfall over central and southern Indian in the latter part (July-August) of the monsoon season. These signals, which are consistent with current theories of atmospheric heating and solar dimming by aerosol and induced cloudiness in modulating the Indian monsoon, would have been masked by conventional method of using all-India rainfall averaged over the entire monsoon season. Citation: Lau, W. K. M., and K.-M. Kim (2010), Fingerprinting the impacts of aerosols on long-term trends of the Indian summer monsoon regional rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16705,