Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

Katzenberger, Anja; Schewe, Jacob; Pongratz, Julia; Levermann, Anders

doi:10.5194/esd-12-367-2021

Cited by 129 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…Thus, both within and across sites, predicted changes toward longer or more intense dry seasons could impose a stress on wet-associated species and reorganize species distributions. Climate projections in the Western Ghats indicate that while the dry season will become drier and longer, mean annual rainfall will increase in central and northern parts and decrease in the south (Rajendran et al, 2012;Katzenberger et al, 2021). In our study, mean annual precipitation did not perform as well as CWD to explain species distributions.…”

Section: Seasonal Drought Shapes Species Distributionscontrasting

confidence: 86%

Seasonal drought regulates species distributions and assembly of tree communities across a tropical wet forest region

Krishnadas

Sankaran

Page

et al. 2021

Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

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Aim How seasonal drought influences tree species distributions might shape future vegetation composition with impending changes to rainfall patterns. Theory suggests that across a seasonal drought gradient, dry‐tolerant species might have wider distributions than species sensitive to seasonal drought, which will be restricted to less seasonal conditions. As wet‐associated species drop out with increasing seasonality, the community will contain mainly dry‐tolerant species. Time period Present. Location Western Ghats Biodiversity Hotspot in peninsular India. Major taxa studied Woody angiosperms. Methods Across a 1,200 km seasonal drought gradient, we modelled occurrences of 183 species using Gaussian logistic regression in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We used the first‐order model coefficients to attribute the association of species to seasonality (dry/wet) and second‐order coefficients to assess modal responses. For 92 species, we checked for an interaction between dry/wet association and two traits: wood density and specific leaf area (SLA). Finally, we assessed the consequences of the seasonality associations of species for regional community assembly. Results Of 183 species, 38% were significantly wet associated, 27% dry associated and 34% indifferent to seasonality. Nearly 80% of species had estimated modes of occurrence within the seasonality range considered here. Species with lower SLA and lower wood density were more likely to occur in more seasonal sites where dry‐associated species formed the majority of co‐occurring species. The proportion of wet‐associated species increased only after intermediate levels of seasonality. The community proportion of extreme wet‐associated species decreased prominently from less to more seasonal sites. Main conclusions Dry‐associated species persisted in less seasonal sites, but not vice versa. A shift toward more seasonal rainfall might favour dry‐associated species and shrink the ranges of wet‐associated species. Future work should assess how the intensity and duration of drought and interactions with other drivers of global change regulate the relative performance of species at more and less seasonal sites.

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Section: Seasonal Drought Shapes Species Distributionscontrasting

confidence: 86%

Seasonal drought regulates species distributions and assembly of tree communities across a tropical wet forest region

Krishnadas

Sankaran

Page

et al. 2021

Global Ecol. Biogeogr.

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“…Indeed the increase in temperature might be offset by the increase of winter snowfall over the Karakoram slowing down the decrease of snow cover in this area. Concerning the summer precipitation, a declining trend of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation during the post-1950 has been reported (Krishnan et al, 2013(Krishnan et al, , 2016Sabin et al, 2020), while CMIP6 analyses are showing the opposite under future warming pathways (Katzenberger et al, 2021) with an intensification of precipitations by most of CMIP6 models, that our results also confirm with a precipitations increase over most of TP and HM (Fig. 9i, j) with a relative increase over HM of 7.9 [5.3 19.9] % to 28.5 [13.9 to 78.7] % (Table E1).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6

Lalande

Ménégoz

Krinner

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate change over High Mountain Asia (HMA, including the Tibetan Plateau) is investigated over the period 1979–2014 and in future projections following the four shared socioeconomic pathways SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The skill of 26 CMIP6 models is estimated for near-surface air temperature, snow cover extent and total precipitation, and 10 of them are used to describe their projections until 2100. Similarly to previous CMIP models, this new generation of GCMs shows a mean cold bias over this area reaching −1.9 [−8.2 to 2.9] °C (90 % confidence interval) in comparison with the CRU observational dataset, associated with a snow cover mean overestimation of 12 [−13 to 43] %, corresponding to a relative bias of 52 [−53 to 183] % in comparison with the NOAA CDR satellite dataset. The temperature and snow cover model biases are more pronounced in winter. Simulated precipitation rates are overestimated by 1.5 [0.3 to 2.9] mm day−1, corresponding to a relative bias of 143 [31 to 281] %, but this might be an apparent bias caused by the undercatch of solid precipitation in the APHRODITE observational reference. For most models, the cold surface bias is associated with an overestimation of snow cover extent, but this relationship does not hold for all models, suggesting that the processes of the origin of the biases can differ from one model to another one. A significant correlation between snow cover bias and surface elevation is found, and to a lesser extent between temperature bias and surface elevation, highlighting the model weaknesses at high elevation. The models performing the best for temperature are not necessarily the most skillful for the other variables, and there is no clear relationship between model resolution and model skill. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the physical processes driving the climate in this complex topographic area, as well as for further parameterization developments adapted to such areas. A dependency of the simulated past trends to the model biases is found for some variables and seasons, however, some highly biased models fall within the range of observed trends suggesting that model bias is not a robust criterion to discard models in trend analysis. The HMA median warming simulated over 2081–2100 with respect to 1995–2014 ranges from 1.9 [1.2 to 2.7] °C for SSP1-2.6 to 6.5 [4.9 to 9.0] °C for SSP5-8.5. This general warming is associated with a relative median snow cover extent decrease from −9.4 [−16.4 to −5.0] % to −32.2 [−49.1 to −25.0] % and a relative median precipitation increase from 8.5 [4.8 to 18.2] % to 24.9 [14.4 to 48.1] % by the end of the century in these respective scenarios. The warming is 11 % higher over HMA than over the other Northern Hemisphere continental surfaces excluding the Arctic area. Seasonal temperature, snow cover and precipitation changes over HMA show a linear relationship with the Global Surface Air Temperature (GSAT), except for summer snow cover that shows a slower decrease at strong levels of GSAT.

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“…High con dence in land monsoon rainfall increase in South and East Asia is projected ). To add this, a recent study foresees the Indian monsoon much stronger, more erratic under the catastrophic climate change with an increase in the summer monsoon precipitation by at least 5% per kelvin of global warming (Katzenberger et al 2021). Time will tell whether such erratic events will occur in the future.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Erratic Asian Summer Monsoon 2020: COVID-19 Lockdown Initiatives Possible Cause for These Episodes?

Kripalani

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The summer (June through September) monsoon 2020 has been very erratic with episodes of heavy and devastating rains, landslides and catastrophic winds over South Asia (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh), East Asia (China, Korea, and Japan), and Southeast Asia (Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia). The withdrawal of the summer monsoon over India was delayed by two weeks. The monsoon season over East Asia has been the longest. China recorded a Dam burst in the 20th century. Furthermore, the Korean Peninsula has experienced back-to-back severe tropical cyclones. Could the lockdown activities initiate to control the COVID-19 spread a possible cause for these major episodes?The strict enforcement of the lockdown regulations has led to a considerable reduction of air pollutants – dust and aerosols throughout the world. A recent study based on satellites and merged products has documented a statistically significant mean reduction of about 20%, 8% and 50% in nitrogen dioxide, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and PM2.5 concentrations, respectively over the megacities across the globe. Our analysis reveals a considerable reduction of about 20% in AOD over South as well as over East Asia, more-over East Asia than over South Asia. The reduced aerosols have impacted the strength of the incoming solar radiation as evidenced by enhanced warming, more-over the land than the oceans. The differential warming over the land and the ocean has resulted in the amplification of the meridional ocean-land thermal contrast and strengthening of the monsoon flow. These intense features have supported the surplus transport of moisture from the oceans towards the main lands. Some similarity between the anomalous rainfall pattern and the anomalous AOD pattern is discernable. In particular, the enhancement of rainfall, the reduction in AOD and the surface temperature warming match very well over two regions one over west-central India and the other over the Yangzte River Valley. Results further reveal that the heavy rains over the Yangzte River Valley could be associated with the preceding reduced aerosols, while the heavy rains over west-central India could be associated with reduced aerosols and also due to the surface temperature warming

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Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

Cited by 129 publications

References 73 publications

Seasonal drought regulates species distributions and assembly of tree communities across a tropical wet forest region

Seasonal drought regulates species distributions and assembly of tree communities across a tropical wet forest region

Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6

Erratic Asian Summer Monsoon 2020: COVID-19 Lockdown Initiatives Possible Cause for These Episodes?

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