A climate shift in the mid‐1990s in summertime circulation over east Asia is described and the dynamics associated with the climate shift are discussed. The east Asian summer monsoon has a large interdecadal variability as well as interannual variability. It is suggested herein that the east Asian summer monsoon has undergone a decadal change in the mid‐1990s. After the mid‐1990s, there has been a significant decrease in the strength of zonal winds near the subtropical jet over the east Asia as well as a distinct increase in precipitation in the southeastern part of China. This decrease of the strength of zonal winds over east Asia could be understood as a barotropic response to a steady forcing associated with heating from increased precipitation. These decadal changes are significantly predominant only in the summertime. Concurrently, there has been a remarkable increase in the number of the typhoon passing through the southeastern part of China. It is suggested that the distinctive increase of the typhoon passing may be partly responsible for the increased precipitation in the same area after the mid‐1990s.

Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is at the heart of tropical climate prediction. Despite enormous progress having been made in predicting ISMR since 1886, the operational forecasts during recent decades (1989–2012) have little skill. Here we show, with both dynamical and physical–empirical models, that this recent failure is largely due to the models' inability to capture new predictability sources emerging during recent global warming, that is, the development of the central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (CP–ENSO), the rapid deepening of the Asian Low and the strengthening of North and South Pacific Highs during boreal spring. A physical–empirical model that captures these new predictors can produce an independent forecast skill of 0.51 for 1989–2012 and a 92-year retrospective forecast skill of 0.64 for 1921–2012. The recent low skills of the dynamical models are attributed to deficiencies in capturing the developing CP–ENSO and anomalous Asian Low. The results reveal a considerable gap between ISMR prediction skill and predictability.

ABSTRACT:This study presents reviews of recent research on the structure and the multiscale variability in the East Asian monsoon. The boreal summer and winter seasons in the East Asian monsoon region exhibit significant intraseasonal, interannual and interdecadal variabilities. The interannual intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is mainly associated with the position of the centre of the Bonin High, which may be distinguished from the North Pacific anticyclone. The frequencies of heavy rainfall events and associated rainfall amounts increase, and extreme heavy rainfall is higher in August than in July, due to changes that occurred in the August rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship around the mid-1970s. This intraseasonal variability in EASM plays a more important role in the explanations of the interannual variability and climate change than does the annual mean. The interannual variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) depends on the behaviour of the Siberian High (SH), Aleutian Low and the subtropical westerly jet stream. An EAWM index that takes into account the meridional shear of a 300 hPa zonal wind is a good indicator to represent the intensity of the EAWM. The Arctic Oscillation has a close relationship with the EAWM intensity on the decadal time scale. Distinct sub-seasonal variability is characterized with northward propagation and is observed in the interdecadal change in the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation (ISO)-ENSO relationship. The preceding winter ENSO influenced the early summer northward propagating ISO (NPISO) activity before the late 1970s, whereas a strong NPISO-ENSO relationship appeared during the later summer after the late 1970s. The NPISO-ENSO relationship is robust owing to a tropical atmospheric bridge process involving the Walker Circulation and Rossby Wave propagation.

Future greenhouse warming is expected to influence the characteristics of global monsoon systems. However, large regional uncertainties still remain. Here we use 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to determine how the length of the summer rainy season and precipitation extremes over the Asian summer monsoon domain will change in response to greenhouse warming. Over East Asia the models simulate on average on the earlier onset and later retreat; whereas over India, the retreat will occur later. The model simulations also show an intensification of extreme rainfall events, as well as an increase of seasonal drought conditions. These results demonstrate the high volatility of the Asian summer monsoon systems and further highlight the need for improved water management strategies in this densely populated part of the world.Plain Language Summary Future climate change is expected to influence the characteristics of the global monsoon system. However, large regional uncertainties still remain. Using 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models, we determine the impact of greenhouse warming on the length of the summer rainy season and precipitation extremes over the Asian subregional monsoon domains (East Asia, western North Pacific, India, and Indo-China Peninsula). Over East Asia the models simulate on average an earlier inception and a later termination of the summer rainy season, whereas over India, the termination will occur later. The model simulations also show an intensification of extreme rainfall events, as well as an increase of seasonal drought conditions. Our results demonstrate the high volatility of the Asian summer monsoon system and further highlight the need for improved water management strategies in this densely populated part of the world.

The hypothesis that regional characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) result from the presence of nonlinear coupled features that modulate the seasonal circulation and rainfall at the intraseasonal time scale is advanced in this study. To examine this hypothesis, the authors undertake the analysis of daily EASM variability using a nonlinear multivariate data classifying algorithm known as self-organizing mapping (SOM). On the basis of various SOM node analyses, four major intraseasonal phases of the EASM are identified. The first node describes a circulation state corresponding to weak tropical and subtropical pressure systems, strong upper-level jets, weakened monsoonal winds, and cyclonic upper-level vorticity. This mode, related to large rainfall anomalies in southeast China and southern Japan, is identified as the mei-yu–baiu phase. The second node represents a distinct circulation state corresponding to a strengthened subtropical high, monsoonal winds, and anticyclonic upper-level vorticity in southeast Korea, which is identified as the changma phase. The third node is related to copious rain over Korea following changma, which we name the postchangma phase. The fourth node is situated diagonally opposite the changma mode. Because Korea experiences a dry spell associated with this SOM node, it is referred to as the dry-spell phase. The authors also demonstrate that a strong modulation of the changma and dry-spell phases on interannual time scales occurs during El Niño and La Niña years. Results imply that the key to predictability of the EASM on interannual time scales may lie with analysis and exploitation of its nonlinear characteristics.

Abstract. Aerosols directly affect the radiative balance of the Earth through the absorption and scattering of solar radiation. Although the contributions of absorption (heating) and scattering (cooling) of sunlight have proved difficult to quantify, the consensus is that anthropogenic aerosols cool the climate, partially offsetting the warming by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent estimates of global direct anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (i.e., global radiative forcing due to aerosol-radiation interactions) are −0.35 ± 0.5 W m −2 , and these estimates depend heavily on aerosol simulation. Here, we integrate a comprehensive suite of satellite and ground-based observations to constrain total aerosol optical depth (AOD), its fine-mode fraction, the vertical distribution of aerosols and clouds, and the collocation of clouds and overlying aerosols. We find that the direct fine-mode aerosol radiative effect is −0.46 W m −2 (−0.54 to −0.39 W m −2 ). Fine-mode aerosols include sea salt and dust aerosols, and we find that these natural aerosols result in a very large cooling (−0.44 to −0.26 W m −2 ) when constrained by observations. When the contribution of these natural aerosols is subtracted from the fine-mode radiative effect, the net becomes −0.11 (−0.28 to +0.05) W m −2 . This net arises from total (natural + anthropogenic) carbonaceous, sulfate and nitrate aerosols, which suggests that global direct anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing is less negative than −0.35 W m −2 .

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<p><span>Future greenhouse warming is expected to influence the character of global monsoon systems. However, large regional uncertainties still remain. Here we use 16 CMIP6 models to determine how the length of the summer rainy season and precipitation extremes over the Asian summer monsoon domain will change in response to greenhouse warming. Over East Asia the models simulate on average on the earlier onset and later retreat; whereas over India, the retreat will occur later. The model simulations also show an intensification of extreme rainfall events, as well as an increase of seasonal drought conditions. These results demonstrate the high volatility of the Asian summer monsoon systems and further highlight the need for improved water management strategies in this densely-populated part of the world.</span></p>