Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries

Abstract

Abstract:The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices to see whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the most accurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the Worldwide Governance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing a food riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does not seem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of political stability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annual threshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which food riots in fragile states are more likely to occur.

Historic Food Production Shocks: Quantifying the Extremes

“…Rises in global food prices can have a significant impact on societies and have in the past led to social unrest [11,13]. However, the causes of food price rises are myriad [27] and the subject of a lot of study.…”

“…Previous production shocks have been linked to major global events such as civil unrest and, in turn, major upheaval [11][12][13]. Understanding the historic causes and transmission of shock through to societal impact is key [14,15].…”

“…Therefore, developing a detailed understanding of the impact of productions shocks would initially necessitate an analysis at country level to allow a comparison across different studies. While it has been noted previously that the impact of food production shocks on an individual country do not seem to be correlated with whether that country is a net food importer or exporter [11] local infrastructure and processes will of course play an important part including transport, storage, policy responses and subsidies [9]. A common method to identify production shocks is therefore a first step in assessing whether an extreme loss constitutes a risk for a particular country or not.…”

Do Dietary Changes Increase the Propensity of Food Riots? An Exploratory Study of Changing Consumption Patterns and the Inclination to Engage in Food-Related Protests

“…Third, careful analyses of the events in 2008 suggest that perceptions of unfair politics and corrupt economics may have been more important than hunger or desperation in creating the momentum that led to the food riots [4]. Such arguments have led a number of scholars to argue that assuming a causal relationship between rising food prices and civil unrest is simplistic and that more detailed research is needed to unpack the ways in which food price rises trigger riots [1,[5][6][7].…”

Exploring the Dynamics of Responses to Food Production Shocks

“…While the adverse effects of the 2007/08 crisis are well known [6,9], there is more speculation around the relative importance of contributing dynamics to such events. Some authors [10] highlight that food commodity prices operate in a complex global system, yet remain broadly consistent with market fundamentals where price is driven by interactions of supply and demand, while others [11] consider that supply-demand interactions cannot fully explain price spikes.…”