Historic Food Production Shocks: Quantifying the Extremes

Jones, Aled; Phillips, Alexander B.

doi:10.3390/su8050427

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…We therefore took the average food production shock in the major food producing countries as our basis for our exogenous shock. To calculate the food production shocks in 2002, 2003 and 2006 we first fit best fitted lines per country to production data between 2000 and 2013 for the major grains (wheat, maize and rice) (Jones and Phillips, 2016). This was done for each of the main country producers of those three grains, which represented 75% of global production.…”

Section: Introducing Exogenous Production Shocksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

2017

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Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries.The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model's forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises.

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Section: Introducing Exogenous Production Shocksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

2017

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“…Nowadays basic grains are among the species most affected by extreme temperatures according to Jones and Phillips (2016). Recently Crimp et al (2016) in Australia, observed that the risk of wheat production has increased by 30% due to Climate Change.…”

Section: Impact Of Climate Change On Yield and Quality Of Basic Cerealsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to the strong dependence between Climate Change and crop development, cereal species are among the most affected by extreme temperatures (Jones and Phillips, 2016).…”

Section: The Cereal Sector and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Sustainable and technological strategies for basic cereal crops in the face of climate change: A literature review

GutiÃ©rrez¹,

Palacios²,

Ruiz-Vanoye³

et al. 2018

Afr. J. Agric. Res.

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At the international level, corn, wheat and rice are basic grains considered to be the most important food source for humans, as they are a fundamental part of the daily diet and represent more than 55% of the caloric intake. They make up the greater production and consumption in the world. Due to Climate Change, these highly vulnerable crops to extreme temperatures have suffered a reduction in quality and quantity of yields. In addition, there is an increase in the risk of production especially for small farmers who provide more than 75% of the world production. According to the projections for the year 2050, basic cereals will continue to be essential for food security and global survival. In turn, the temperature will continue to increase and will cause a decrease of up to 10% in yield for each increased degree celsius, in the absence of sustainable adaptation. The present work consists of a review of the literature of adaptation strategies in the face of Climate Change, which contributes to reestablishing the damage caused by the green revolution on basic cereal crops, the environment, and biodiversity, the technological strategies review was also included considering that it is a tool that offers valuable support to the farmer in the decision making inherent in the planning and improvement of their cereal crops.

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“…In the system reliability modelling world, the term 'shock' "is usually defined by the time between two consecutive shocks, the damage caused by a shock, the system failure and the dependence relationship among the above elements" [20] (p. 405). However, "there is no one agreed method for quantifying or categorizing when a country has experienced a food production shock" and differences can be seen in the "levels, countries and timings for shocks" [21] (p. 8) used by different studies. Ultimately, the key characteristics of a nexus shock [9], which we adopt in this review paper, include: a low-probability, low-frequency, high-impact event with multi-scale, multi-stakeholder and multi-resource impacts that span food, energy and water systems.…”

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confidence: 99%

Decision-Making and Building Resilience to Nexus Shocks Locally: Exploring Flooding and Heatwaves in the UK

Howarth

Brooks

2017

Sustainability

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There has been a policy shift towards localism in the UK driving responses and decision-making processes to respond to the impacts of climate change. This shift capitalizes on local expertise and knowledge, empowering communities to take ownership of response strategies, with an increased focus on building resilience to nexus shocks. This comes at a time when the ability of local authorities to lead responses to nexus shocks is decreasing due to lack of capacity, funding and a statutory requirement to better respond to the impacts of climate change. We examine local resilience to nexus shocks and climate impacts as a complex process of collaboration, communication, adaptation, learning from past events and preparing for future shocks. Drawing on examples of resilience to extreme weather events in the UK, this review paper assesses: (1) local responses to nexus shocks in the UK; (2) how and what evidence is used to inform decision-making in response to nexus shocks; and (3) how stakeholders increase local resilience to nexus shocks when faced with gaps in knowledge. We outline possible ways to extrapolate these insights beyond the UK context.

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Historic Food Production Shocks: Quantifying the Extremes

Cited by 16 publications

References 24 publications

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

Sustainable and technological strategies for basic cereal crops in the face of climate change: A literature review

Decision-Making and Building Resilience to Nexus Shocks Locally: Exploring Flooding and Heatwaves in the UK

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