Abstract:The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices to see whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the most accurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the Worldwide Governance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing a food riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does not seem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of political stability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annual threshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which food riots in fragile states are more likely to occur.
Many thanks for your constructive comments, questions and feedbacks which we approached below. Our response represents the collective action of all fourteen co-authors with their various backgrounds and expertise in simulating social-ecological systems (SESs) using agent-based, spatiallyexplicit, or other forms of qualitative, and quantitative modelling.Our response is structured into: general comments, reviewer #1 and reviewer #2. We subsequently numbered the reviewer comments in bold, and responded to it individually as indicated by # Response.
This paper defines 'fuel riots' as a distinct type of energy-related conflict. The paper provides the first database for fuel riots and explores their social, economic and environmental drivers. Focussing upon refined fuel commodities, the analysis demonstrates a link between fuel riots and rising international fuel prices in countries characterized by weak state capacity and deficient governance, fuel scarcity and poor economic performance. We suggest a potential causal pathway for fuel riots: when international fuel prices spike, net fuel-importing countries bear higher costs and if these societies are politically fragile, the likelihood of fuel riots is high. Countries with high GDP per capita can absorb the increase and maintain subsidies, therefore avoiding upheavals, as opposed to poorer societies where fuel riots are more likely. Our findings demonstrate the role of state fragility and socioeconomic conditions in enabling conflict, and will inform policy in identifying fertile ground for fuel riots, i.e. those societies most likely to be affected by increases in fossil fuel prices due to fuel scarcity and climate action (e.g. carbon taxes). We propose that policies aimed at controlling international prices are key to prevent fuel riots. Long-term strategies require phasing out fuel subsidies with inclusive and equitable processes.
Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries.The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model's forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises.
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