Fuel riots: definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict

Abstract

This paper defines 'fuel riots' as a distinct type of energy-related conflict. The paper provides the first database for fuel riots and explores their social, economic and environmental drivers. Focussing upon refined fuel commodities, the analysis demonstrates a link between fuel riots and rising international fuel prices in countries characterized by weak state capacity and deficient governance, fuel scarcity and poor economic performance. We suggest a potential causal pathway for fuel riots: when international fuel prices spike, net fuel-importing countries bear higher costs and if these societies are politically fragile, the likelihood of fuel riots is high. Countries with high GDP per capita can absorb the increase and maintain subsidies, therefore avoiding upheavals, as opposed to poorer societies where fuel riots are more likely. Our findings demonstrate the role of state fragility and socioeconomic conditions in enabling conflict, and will inform policy in identifying fertile ground for fuel riots, i.e. those societies most likely to be affected by increases in fossil fuel prices due to fuel scarcity and climate action (e.g. carbon taxes). We propose that policies aimed at controlling international prices are key to prevent fuel riots. Long-term strategies require phasing out fuel subsidies with inclusive and equitable processes.

Demanding Power: Do Protests Empower Citizens to Hold Governments Accountable over Energy?

“…Subsidies have also leaked through illicit transnational networks of smugglers between Nigeria and neighbouring countries in the region (Mlachila et al 2016).…”

Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda

“…This may have distributional implications by raising consumer expenses relatively more for the poor and separately or concurrently providing opportunities for an elite to capitalize on the new market system when the reforms benefit elite interests (Perry, 2020 ; Sterner, 2012 ). Fuel subsidies are often used in autocracies to serve core groups and maintain stability, and the relationship between subsidy cuts, fuel price increase and social unrest is well documented (Natalini et al, 2020 ). By contrast, the windfalls from removing such subsidies could also be harnessed for development goals (Steckel et al, 2017 ).…”

An exploration of the association between fuel subsidies and fuel riots

“…The data we use in this paper to measure the occurrence of fuel riots comes from the database published in Natalini et al (2020), which spans the time-frame 2005-2016. We have updated the database until the year 2018 using the same methodology implemented by the authors.…”

“…The definition and data we use in this paper to measure the occurrence of fuel riots comes from Natalini et al (2020). Fuel riots have been defined by the authors as 'incidents of significant unrest -riots, demonstrations, major protests -where grievances over fuel prices, the prospective removal of subsidies, or fuel availability were specifically identified as a factor which motivated people involved in the violent event' (Natalini et al, 2020). The original database spanned the time-frame 2005-2016 and was here updated until the year 2018 using the same methodology implemented by the authors.…”

“…Henceforth we use the phrase 'fuel riots' since the vast majority of such riots are, at least superficially, about the price of fuel. For a detailed definition of fuel riots see(Natalini, Bravo, & Newman, 2020) 2 One exception isNatalini (2016) who examine the role of scarcity, prices and political fragility in driving food and fuel riots using a quantitative and agent-based modelling approach.…”