Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda

Abstract

Climate policies will need to incentivize transformative societal changes if they are to achieve emission reductions consistent with 1.5°C temperature targets. To contribute to efforts for aligning climate policy with broader societal goals, specifically those related to sustainable development, we identify the effects of climate mitigation policy on aspects of socioeconomic development that are known determinants of conflict and evaluate the plausibility and importance of potential pathways to armed conflict and political violence. Conditional on preexisting societal tensions and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, we isolate effects on economic performance, income and livelihood, food and energy prices, and land tenure as most likely to increase conflict risks. Climate policy designs may be critical to moderate these risks as different designs can promote more favorable societal outcomes such as equity and inclusion. Coupling research with careful monitoring and evaluation of the intermediate societal effects at early stages of policy implementation will be a critical part of learning and moderating potential conflict risks. Importantly, better characterizing the future conflict risks under climate policy allows for a more comprehensive comparison to the conflict risk if mitigation is not implemented and graver climate damages are experienced. This article is categorized under: The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Benefits of Mitigation

A review of climate security risk assessment tools

“…Political variables of vulnerability: While good governance has been shown to enable communities to prepare for and adapt to climatic hazards, poor governance constitutes a driver of vulnerability (Busby, 2022; Gilmore & Buhaug, 2021; Witmer et al, 2017). For example, governments with stronger capacities to deliver services and security, more inclusive political systems, and better access to international assistance are better able to peacefully navigate climatic hazards (Busby, 2022).…”

“…Second, we identify policy-relevant knowledge gaps based on a review of tools developed for decision-making . Thus, we complement various academic papers (e.g., Buhaug (2015), Gilmore & Buhaug (2021), Mach et al (2020)) setting the research agenda in the field of climate security mainly based on academic research .…”

Navigating a just and peaceful transition: Environment of Peace (Part 3)

“…520 The conflict risk of maladaptation is not the same everywhere, with a country's conflict history one of the most important predictors of future conflict. 521 Hence, the potential impact of adaptation interventions on conflict dynamics are of greatest concern in settings with a history of conflict-areas where there are existing tensions between communities, where political instability is in evidence or where migrants or refugees have settled stand out as meriting additional attention. In such instances, those planning and implementing adaptation interventions must take particular care in assessing existing conflict dynamics and socio-political tensions.…”

The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways

“…Both armed conflict and economic performance can interact with climate mitigation and adaptation efforts (Buhaug andvon Uexkull 2021, Gilmore andBuhaug 2021). Armed conflict curtails economic 6 See supplemental information A-1 for a review of these studies.…”