Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?

Karel, Haegeman; Marinelli, Elisabetta; Fabiana, Scapolo; Ricci, Andrea; Sokolov, Alexander

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.002

Cited by 129 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…To prevent such a useless approach, several authors argue for a stronger emphasis on ultra-creative scenarios and an effective interaction with numerical simulation [5,19,57,73]. In order to reduce the likelihood of experiencing this downside for our project, in the second part of the analysis, we elected to pursue a scenario that was dismissed by the company in the first part of the case.…”

Section: Pitfall: Reproductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactive foresight simulation

Hansen

Rasmussen

Jacobsen

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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The Combined Simulation Approach (CSA) is a way to evaluate risks and address potential unforeseen problems in a more interactive way than what is often observed in practice in companies or sectors. The approach is based on a combination of scenario analysis and discrete-event computer simulation with which the strategies can be continuously developed. The contribution of this paper is to narrow the knowledge gapbetween strategic, tactical and operational levels of an organisation. The paper demonstrates how it is possible to work proactively with both the breadth and depth of strategies using a Danish knowledge intensive company as an example.

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Section: Pitfall: Reproductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactive foresight simulation

Hansen

Rasmussen

Jacobsen

2016

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…The information, knowledge and interpretation and resultant subjective opinion of FTA participants is decisive when dealing with grand challenges [3]. Thus, it is crucial to keep in mind when designing and running an FTA activity that the selection of experts [4,5] would strongly influence the analytical results and recommendations.…”

Section: Known Unknowns Unknown Knows and Unknown Unknownsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Against this backdrop, the guest editors of this special would stress that one needs to be careful before proposing the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods as "the" way forward, as put by [4]. No doubt, it is worth trying to combine them when it is relevant and feasible.…”

Section: Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The paper by Haegeman et al [4] explores aspects which ought to be considered to properly combine quantitative and qualitative approaches, whereas Gao et al [7] proposes the development of a new forecasting approach to analysing technology life cycle of a particular technology of interest. Both Hamarat et al [11] and Kwakkel and Pruit [12] apply an approach to forecasting that uses an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (Exploratory Modelling and Analysis) and to assess multiple scenarios to support the design of dynamic adaptive policies.…”

Section: Papers In This Special Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In more detail, Haegeman et al [4] depart from the methodological debate that has been a relevant element of the International Seville Conference series on Future--Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) since its launch in 2004. They claim that current trends in FTA and the increasing policy demand for robust evidence for decision--making indicate that there may be a momentum for pushing FTA towards integrating qualitative (QL) and quantitative (QT) approaches, and thus increasing the relevance of FTA for policy, businesses and society by addressing the so--called grand challenges.…”

Section: Papers In This Special Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

Cagnin

Havas

Sarıtas

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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This paper reflects on the potential of future--oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision--makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future--oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes - and grand challenges in particular -, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so--called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so--called grand challenges.

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Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future‐oriented technology analysis

Barbosa

Lima

Emerick

et al. 2022

Futures & Foresight Science

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Large organizations usually spread their research and development (R&D) around the world, hindering coordination efforts when performing future‐oriented technology analysis (FTA) studies. FTA is commonly used in R&D planning, especially on research prioritization. Therefore, we developed an FTA framework for large and geographically spread organizations, named Tiamat. The Tiamat framework is composed of a simplified organization model, which focuses on internal and external interactions during FTA, and an FTA process, which indicates the steps performed by the decision‐maker need until the delivery of the FTA final report from the organization. Based on the Tiamat framework, we developed the Tiamat software, a modular tool that implements generic FTA using the concept of workflows of FTA methods. Thus, we describe the architecture and collaboration aspects of the Tiamat software. The Tiamat framework (i.e., model and process) and the Tiamat software were applied in real situations to evaluate its FTA support capability. Besides, we show non‐FTA uses of the Tiamat software to showcase its flexibility. Among the contributions, we highlight the use of the Tiamat framework in the management of a standardized FTA process, based on the concept of workflows. The framework was developed to be easily adapted to many types of organizations, such as businesses, universities, and public institutions, either civil or military. The Tiamat software has shown to be capable to support distributed and local FTA studies, as well non‐FTA studies.

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Quantitative and qualitative approaches in Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): From combination to integration?

Cited by 129 publications

References 42 publications

Interactive foresight simulation

Interactive foresight simulation

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

Supporting distributed and integrated execution of future‐oriented technology analysis

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