Potential influence of meteorological variables on forest fire risk in Serbia during the period 2000-2017

Abstract

To examine potential relationships between meteorological variables and forest fires in Serbia, daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed data for 15 meteorological stations across Serbia were used to construct fire indices. The daily values of the Ångström and Nesterov indices were calculated for the period 2000-2017. A high number of forest fires occurred in 2007 and 2012 in Serbia, during a period of extremely high air temperatures in 2007, followed by the longest heat wave and the worst drought in 2012. In order to identify the ideal weather conditions for fire break outs, different combinations of input variables, e.g., meteorological variables (mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and wind speed), fire danger indices or a combination of both, for the Belgrade area during the period 1986-2017, were tested. It was found that using relative humidity or precipitation as a predictor only generates a satisfactory model for forecasting of number of forest fires.

Forest Fire Risk Estimation in a Typical Temperate Forest in Northeastern China using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index, Case of Autumn 2019 and 2020

“…Our FWI values were similar to those of other Chinese provinces where the FWI values were linked to fire (Lynham and Stocks 1989;Tian et al 2011Tian et al , 2014Yang and Di 2011). More studies had found a strong relationship between FWI and wildfire occurrence in other regions, like the Mediterranean, south-east and Central Europe (Good et al 2008;Dimitrakopoulos et al 2011;De Jong et al 2016;Bedia et al 2018;Lahaye et al 2018;Fernandes 2019), Russia (Tosic et al 2019), Australia (Dowdy et al 2010), and on the global scale (Field et al 2015). Our results showed that the FWI value in the interval from October 21 to 28 exceeded 13.95 and approached 20.67, which corresponds to more than 30 and 170 ha of burnt forest, respectively, according to Xanthopoulos et al (2014) scale.…”

Influence of climatic conditions on fire risk in Djerdap National Park (Serbia): A case study of September 2011

“…Both indices are simple fire danger indicator, but they can be very successful. Studies [10,12] showed that the relationship between forest fires and fire indices existed in different regions of Serbia. In order to improve the wildfire risk assessment, the Angstrom index was modified, and a significant correlation with the forest fires is found in southern Serbia [25].…”

“…The risk of forest fires caused by the drought is the greatest in August and July in Serbia [11]. To examine potential relationships between meteorological variables and forest fires in Serbia, daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed data for fifteen meteorological stations across Serbia are used [12]. They found that using relative humidity or precipitation as a predictor only generates a satisfactory model for forecasting of number of forest fires (NFF).…”

Forest fires in Volga federal district of the Russian Federation (2000-2020 years)

“…When studying forest fires, two aspects arise: what data to use and in what territorial boundaries to analyze this data. In general, forest fires are investigated using statistical, satellite and meteorological data [1][2][3][4][5]. Statistics can be: official data of public bodies (ministries and departments); press releases and industry magazines.…”

“…all examined potential links between meteorological variables and forest fires in Serbia. For this purpose, data on daily temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed were used from 15 weather stations across of Serbia [5].…”