Planning for the future: identifying conservation priority areas for Iberian birds under climate change

Abstract

Context Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity.Objectives We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes.Methods We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and nonthreatened priority areas.Results 19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses. ConclusionsWe identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.

Insights for protection of high species richness areas for the conservation of Mesoamerican endemic birds

“…In fact, previous studies suggest that climate‐induced range contractions for species could have similar effects on taxa considered Threatened, Data Deficient and Least Concern (e.g., Hidasi‐Neto et al., 2019; Prieto‐Torres et al., 2020). Thus, adding new areas to preserve both current and future potential species ranges could represent a less costly and more effective strategy for guiding conservation decision‐making to maximizing the long‐term protection of biota (Hannah et al., 2007; Prieto‐Torres et al., 2016; Triviño et al., 2018).…”

“…Approaches evaluating conservation status for species in human‐modified landscapes, in both spatial and temporal terms, are essential for shedding light on the ecological mechanisms underlying the persistence of wild biodiversity in those areas (Donovan & Strong, 2003; Nori et al, 2013) and the critical roles that species play in local ecosystems (Gardner et al., 2009). The identification of conservation areas for birds that are endemic, threatened or both, as well as areas with a high concentration of species in general (i.e., high species richness), coupled with the possible effects of future climate change, would maximize the performance of the current PA network (De Albuquerque et al., 2015; Hannah et al., 2007; Prieto‐Torres et al., 2018, 2020; Triviño et al., 2018).…”

“…In this sense, protecting birds is expected to provide benefits to other taxa (Gregory et al., 2005; Larsen, Bladt, Balmford, & Rahbek, 2012; Roberge & Angelstam, 2004). Therefore, birds have long attracted the attention of scientists, decision makers and non‐governmental organizations to highlight and promote conservation policies and needs (e.g., Kujala, Burgman, & Moilanen, 2013; Prieto‐Torres et al., 2018; Triviño, Kujala, Araújo, & Cabeza, 2018).…”

Back home? Uncertainties for returning seized animals to the source‐areas under climate change

“…Braidwood, Taggart, Smith, & Andersen, ; Crossman, Bryan, & Summers, ; Jarvie & Svenning, ). In fact, the migration of released organisms to climatically suitable habitats could be a condition of natural adaptation (Carroll et al, ), particularly the birds which respond more easily to climatic changes by shifting their distributions (Triviño, Kujala, Araújo, & Cabeza, ).…”

Searching for Networks: Ecological Connectivity for Amphibians Under Climate Change

“…Assessing ecological connectivity among PAs is becoming a relevant subject of growing international effort in relation to nature conservation policies (Bennett and Mulongoy 2006;Worboys et al 2006). By using connectivity in planning, managers attempt to avoid functional isolation of PAs (Carroll et al 2004;Liang et al 2018) and mitigate the effects of climate change on the population structure of endemic species by allowing for range shifts (Bennett and Mulongoy 2006;Triviño et al 2018). Thus, an understanding of future climate conditions is essential for predicting the effects of habitat isolation and species range shifts.…”