Oregon climate assessment report : December 2010

Abstract

The group of scientists that make up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found in 2007 that the warming of Earth’s climate is unequivocal and largely due to human activity. Earth’s climate has changed in the past, though the recent magnitude and pace of changes are unprecedented in human existence. Recent decades have been warmer than at any time in roughly 120,000 years. Most of this warming can be attributed to anthropogenic activity, primarily burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) for energy. Burning fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide and other heat trapping gases, also known as greenhouse gases, into the atmosphere. This warming cannot be explained by natural causes (volcanic and solar) alone. It can be said with confidence that human activities are primarily responsible for the observed 1.5 ˚F increase in 20th century temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. A warmer climate will affect this state substantially. In 2007, the Oregon State Legislature charged the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, via HB 3543, with assessing the state of climate change science including biological, physical and social science as it relates to Oregon and the likely effects of climate change on the state. This inaugural assessment report is meant to act as a compendium of the relevant research on climate change and its impacts on the state of Oregon. This report draws on a large body of work on climate change impacts in the western US from the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington and the California Climate Action Team. In this report, we also identify knowledge gaps, where we acknowledge the need for more research in certain areas. We hope this report will serve as a useful resource for decision-makers, stakeholders, researchers and all Oregonians. The following chapters address key sectors that fall within the biological, physical and social sciences in the state of Oregon.

Remote sensing: generation of long‐term kelp bed data sets for evaluation of impacts of climatic variation

“…It should also be noted that in our statewide models, the positive effects of winter wave height and upwelling were absent in the 1984–2018 model but emerged in the more recent 1996–2018 model. This suggests that these factors may have become more important in controlling Nereocystis populations in recent years, and is particularly interesting considering that upwelling and wave height have been increasing in Oregon under climate change (Dello and Mote 2010, Ruggiero et al 2010).…”

Fifth Oregon climate assessment

“…The majority of businesses and homes in the resort community of Detroit also were destroyed when the Lions Head Fire swept through east Marion County (Paul 2020). As noted in previous Oregon Climate Assessments (Dello and Mote 2010, Dalton et al 2013, multiple respiratory and other health complications from wildfire smoke disproportionately harm frontline workers, low-income communities, the elderly, people with disabilities, and others with pre-existing conditions, such as asthma (see also Public Health, this volume). Data integration and analysis from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Forest Service suggested that nationwide, communities of color and people currently living in poverty are more likely to live in census tracts with the highest likelihood of experiencing a wildfire event (Davies et al 2018).…”

Sixth Oregon climate assessment

“…Steven J. Dundas, Susan Capalbo, and James Sterns Assessments of the economic impacts of a changing climate on key sectors in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest have been included in previous Oregon Climate Assessments (Dello and Mote 2010;Dalton et al 2013Mote et al 2019;. The first and second Oregon Climate Assessments provided in-depth overviews of the methods and approaches used to value these impacts and the challenges and opportunities to designing policies to enhance mitigation and adaptation.…”

“…Oregon's economy and gross domestic product (GDP) remain highly impacted by the changing climate (e.g., increases in temperature, increased variation in the timing and intensity of precipitation). As noted in the first Oregon Climate Assessment (Dello and Mote 2010), it is nearly impossible to provide a comprehensive economic assessment of the effects of climate change on Oregon due to the breadth and diversity of Oregon's natural-resource based economy; the complexity of the interactions among sectors, climate variables, and climate-related variables; and limited empirical assessments in key areas, such as public health, migration, and sector-specific agricultural markets. Prior Oregon Climate Assessments also emphasized that many assessments have sidestepped the issue of behavioral responses and instead projected economic impacts under business-as-usual scenarios.…”