Marine species frequently show weak and/or complex genetic structuring that is commonly dismissed as 'chaotic' genetic patchiness and ecologically uninformative. Here, using three datasets that individually feature weak chaotic patchiness, we demonstrate that combining inferences across species and incorporating environmental data can greatly improve the predictive value of marine population genetics studies on small spatial scales. Significant correlations in genetic patterns of microsatellite markers among three species, kelp bass Paralabrax clathratus, Kellet's whelk Kelletia kelletii and California spiny lobster Panulirus interruptus, in the Southern California Bight suggest that slight differences in diversity and pairwise differentiation across sampling sites are not simply noise or chaotic patchiness, but are ecologically meaningful. To test whether interspecies correlations potentially result from shared environmental drivers of genetic patterns, we assembled data on kelp bed size, sea surface temperature and estimates of site-to-site migration probability derived from a high resolution multi-year ocean circulation model. These data served as predictor variables in linear models of genetic diversity and linear mixed models of genetic differentiation that were assessed with information-theoretic model selection. Kelp was the most informative predictor of genetics for all three species, but ocean circulation also played a minor role for kelp bass. The shared patterns suggest a single spatial marine management strategy may effectively protect genetic diversity of multiple species. This study demonstrates the power of environmental and ecological data to shed light on weak genetic patterns and highlights the need for future focus on a mechanistic understanding of the links between oceanography, ecology and genetic structure.

[1] The quantification of coastal connectivity is important for a wide range of real-world applications ranging from assessment of pollutant risk to nearshore fisheries management. For these purposes, coastal connectivity can be defined as the probability that water parcels from one location have advected to another site over a given time interval. Here we demonstrate how to quantify connectivity using Lagrangian probability-density functions (PDFs) based on numerical solutions of the coastal circulation of the Southern California Bight (SCB). Ensemble mean dispersal patterns from a single release site show strong dependencies on particle-release location, season, and year, reflecting annual and interannual circulation patterns in the SCB. Mean connectivity patterns are heterogeneous for the advection time of 30 days or less, due to local circulation patterns, and they become more homogeneous for longer advection times. However, connectivity patterns for a single realization are highly variable because of intrinsic eddy-driven transport and synoptic wind-forcing variability. In the long term, mainland sites are good sources while both Northern and Southern Channel Islands are poor sources, although they receive substantial fluxes of water parcels from the mainland. The predicted connectivity gives useful information to ecological and other applications for the SCB (e.g., designing marine protected areas and predicting the impact of a pollution event) and demonstrates how high-resolution numerical solutions of coastal ocean circulations can be used to quantify nearshore connectivity.

Sustainability within planetary boundaries requires concerted action by individuals, governments, civil society and private actors. For the private sector, there is concern that the power exercised by transnational corporations generates, and is even central to, global environmental change. Here, we ask under which conditions transnational corporations could either hinder or promote a global shift towards sustainability. We show that a handful of transnational corporations have become a major force shaping the global intertwined system of people and planet. Transnational corporations in agriculture, forestry, seafood, cement, minerals, and fossil energy cause environmental impacts and possess the ability to influence critical functions of the biosphere. We review evidence of current practices and identify six observed features of change towards 'Corporate Biosphere Stewardship', with significant potential for upscaling. Actions by transnational corporations, if combined with effective public policies and improved governmental regulations, could substantially accelerate sustainability efforts. MAIN TEXT Consolidation among corporations, whereby a small number of companies control a large market share of the overall output or sales for a particular product or product type (i.e. oligopoly or, at the extreme, monopoly), is a well-known 1,2 and predictable 3,4 feature of economic development 5. Some 10% of the world's corporations generate 80% of all profits globally 6. A handful of transnational companies (TNCs) in the information technology sector control 90% or more of the global market share of search engines, operating systems, and social media 7. Three investor firms manage over 90% of all assets under management in passive equity funds 8 , and retailers, which form the interface between consumers and global supply chains, also show high levels of concentration 9,10. Such dominance is variously explained by increasing share of returns from growth going to capital rather than labour, the ability of TNCs to navigate regulatory systems opportunistically across multiple jurisdictions, and their capacity to create barriers to entry for smaller firms 11 .

Abstract. Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.