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Summary1. There is a widely recognized gap between the data generated by researchers and the information required by policy makers. In an effort to bridge the gap between conservation policy and science, we have convened in several countries multiple groups of policy makers, practitioners and researchers to identify priority information needs that can be met by new research in the social and natural sciences. 2. The exercises we have coordinated included identification of priority policy-relevant research questions in specific geographies (UK, USA, Canada); questions relating to global conservation; questions relating to global agriculture; policy opportunities in the United Kingdom; and emerging global conservation issues or 'horizon scanning'. 3. We outline the exercises and describe our methods, which are based on principles of inclusivity, openness and democracy. Methods to maximize inclusiveness and rigour in such exercises include solicitation of questions and priorities from an extensive community, online collation of material, repeated voting and engagement with policy networks to foster uptake and application of the results. 4. These methods are transferable to a wide range of policy or research areas within and beyond the conservation sciences.

Two aspects of patch geometry-area and isolation-currently dominate the field of metapopulation dynamics. Under this area-and-isolation paradigm, models commonly assume that the probability of local extinction decreases as patch area increases and that the probability of colonization increases as patch connectivity increases. Environmental variables other than patch area and isolation are assumed to have relatively little effect on metapopulation dynamics. Our work on a metapopulation of the butterfly Speyeria nokomis apacheana highlights the need for a broader view of metapopulation dynamics. In this system, neither occupancy nor turnover patterns were best modeled as functions of patch area or isolation. Instead, other measures of habitat quality explained the most variance in occupancy and turnover. Our study also revealed temporal variation in the factors associated with occupancy and turnover. This variation can cause the results of analyses to vary with the temporal scale of analysis. For example, factors associated with turnover in this system differed among single-year and multiple-year analyses. We emphasize that factors other than patch geometry may drive extinction and colonization processes in metapopulations, especially in systems that experience substantial natural and anthropogenic environmental variability.Evaluación del Papel de la Calidad, Área y Aislamiento de Parches en la Predicción de la Dinámica Metapoblacional Resumen: Dos aspectos de la geometría de parches -área y aislamiento-dominan actualmente el campo de la dinámica metapoblacional. Bajo este paradigma de "área y aislamiento", los modelos comúnmente suponen que la probabilidad de una extinción local disminuye si el área del parche aumenta y la probabilidad de colonización aumenta si la conectividad del parche aumenta. Se asume que otras variables ambientales diferentes al área y al aislamiento del parche tienen relativamente poco efecto en la dinámica metapoblacional. Nuestro trabajo en una metapoblación de la mariposa Speyeria nokomis apacheana resalta la necesidad de una visión más amplia de las dinámicas metapoblacionales. En este sistema, no se modelaron bien ni la ocupación ni los patrones de rendimiento como funciones del área o aislamiento del parche. Por lo contrario, otras medidas de calidad del hábitat explicaron la mayor parte de la variación en cuanto a ocupación y rendimiento. Nuestro estudio también reveló una variación temporal en los factores asociados con la ocupación y el rendimiento. Esta variación puede hacer que los resultados de los análisis varíen con la escala temporal del análisis. Por ejemplo, los factores asociados con el rendimiento en este sistema discreparon en los análisis entre años individuales y entre años múltiples. Señalamos que factores diferentes a la geometría del parche pueden conducir a procesos de extinción y colonización en metapoblaciones, especialmente en sistemas que experimentan una variabilidad ambiental natural y antropogénica substancial. §

Managing the nonlethal effects of disturbance on wildlife populations has been a long‐term goal for decision makers, managers, and ecologists, and assessment of these effects is currently required by European Union and United States legislation. However, robust assessment of these effects is challenging. The management of human activities that have nonlethal effects on wildlife is a specific example of a fundamental ecological problem: how to understand the population‐level consequences of changes in the behavior or physiology of individual animals that are caused by external stressors. In this study, we review recent applications of a conceptual framework for assessing and predicting these consequences for marine mammal populations. We explore the range of models that can be used to formalize the approach and we identify critical research gaps. We also provide a decision tree that can be used to select the most appropriate model structure given the available data. Synthesis and applications: The implementation of this framework has moved the focus of discussion of the management of nonlethal disturbances on marine mammal populations away from a rhetorical debate about defining negligible impact and toward a quantitative understanding of long‐term population‐level effects. Here we demonstrate the framework's general applicability to other marine and terrestrial systems and show how it can support integrated modeling of the proximate and ultimate mechanisms that regulate trait‐mediated, indirect interactions in ecological communities, that is, the nonconsumptive effects of a predator or stressor on a species' behavior, physiology, or life history.

We examined trends in abundance of four pelagic fish species (delta smelt, longfin smelt, striped bass, and threadfin shad) in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, over 40 years using Bayesian change point models. Change point models identify times of abrupt or unusual changes in absolute abundance (step changes) or in rates of change in abundance (trend changes). We coupled Bayesian model selection with linear regression splines to identify biotic or abiotic covariates with the strongest associations with abundances of each species. We then refitted change point models conditional on the selected covariates to explore whether those covariates could explain statistical trends or change points in species abundances. We also fitted a multispecies change point model that identified change points common to all species. All models included hierarchical structures to model data uncertainties, including observation errors and missing covariate values. There were step declines in abundances of all four species in the early 2000s, with a likely common decline in 2002. Abiotic variables, including water clarity, position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (X2), and the volume of freshwater exported from the estuary, explained some variation in species' abundances over the time series, but no selected covariates could explain statistically the post-2000 change points for any species.

Horizon scanning identifies emerging issues in a given field sufficiently early to conduct research to inform policy and practice. Our group of horizon scanners, including academics and researchers, convened to identify fifteen nascent issues that could affect the conservation of biological diversity. These include the impacts of and potential human responses to climate change, novel biological and digital technologies, novel pollutants and invasive species. We expect to repeat this process and collation annually

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