Fifth Oregon climate assessment

Dalton, Meghan M.; Fleishman, Erica

doi:10.5399/osu/1160

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 463 publications

(582 reference statements)

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“…There are regions within the U.S. where the upper end of current local guidance either agrees with or deviates from the current state‐of‐the‐art scientific projections from the IPCC AR6. Six assessment reports in the database (California, New York City, Rhode Island, Maine, South Carolina, and Oregon; Dalton & Fleishman, 2021; Gornitz et al., 2019; Griggs et al., 2017; Gulf of Maine Research Institute, 2018; Roman, 2017; Watson & Knapp, 2021) include high end SLR guidance that either matches or exceeds the less likely, but high impact IPCC AR6 low‐confidence projections (Figure 6), while three others (two from Florida, and one from New Jersey; Kopp, Andrews, et al., 2019; Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact Sea Level Rise Work Group, 2019; Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel, 2019) include high end guidance that comes within 0.1 m of the IPCC AR6 low‐confidence projections for 2100. Some of these reports share certain characteristics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…South Carolina (Watson & Knapp, 2021), Oregon (Dalton & Fleishman, 2021), Rhode Island (Roman, 2017), Maine (Gulf of Maine Research Institute, 2018), and Florida (Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact Sea Level Rise Work Group, 2019; Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel, 2019) assessments include projections that rely on NOAA 2017 scenarios (Roman, 2017; Table S1), basing their highest projections upon either the NOAA “Extreme” scenario (considered an upper limit on future SLR, and consistent with 2.5 m of global SLR), or the NOAA “High” scenario (the second highest in the NOAA report, and consistent with the highest scenario put forward in a 2016 report from the U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program; John A. Hall et al., 2016; Sweet et al., 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating Knowledge Gaps in Sea‐Level Rise Assessments From the United States

et al. 2023

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There have been many scientific advances regarding future sea‐level projections, however it is unclear if these have been transferred to assessment reports used by stakeholders. Here, we present a first‐of‐its‐kind comprehensive analysis of regional sea‐level rise (SLR) assessments for the United States (U.S.). We identify variations in time horizons over which regions plan for SLR, with 25 projections from the U.S. Northeast and West that extend to 2150 or beyond, but no projections from the U.S. South beyond 2100. The majority of 2100 projections from the U.S. Northeast (77%) and West (83%) include ranges of future SLR, while 88% of projections from the U.S. South include only single estimates. At least 56% of U.S. communities in the database underestimate the upper end of future SLR compared to the regional projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Knowledge Gaps in Sea‐Level Rise Assessments From the United States

et al. 2023

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“…Average annual air temperatures are expected to warm 1.9°C (RCP 2.6) to 3.1°C (RCP 8.5) by the 2050s in the PNW compared to 1950-1999 (Rogers and Mauger 2021). Annual precipitation is expected to remain stable, but summer precipitation is expected to decrease by the mid and late 21 st century (Dalton and Fleishman 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Canary in the Forest? – Tree mortality and canopy dieback of western redcedar linked to drier and warmer summer conditions

Andrus

Peach

Cinquini

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Tree mortality and partial canopy dieback are increasing in many forest ecosystems from unfavorable climate conditions. Examining how tree growth and mortality are affected by climate variability can help identify proximate causes of tree mortality and canopy dieback. We investigated anomalously high mortality rates and partial canopy dieback of western redcedar (Thuja plicata, WRC), a culturally, ecologically, and economically important species in the Pacific Northwest (USA), using tree-ring methods. We sampled trees in three tree status groups (no canopy dieback, partial canopy dieback, and trees that died (0-30 years ago)) from 11 sites in coastal (maritime climate) and interior (continental climate) populations of WRC trees. In our study, WRC tree mortality was portended by on average 4-5 years of declining radial growth. Warmer and drier climate conditions in May and June that extend the annual July-September dry season reduced radial growth in 9 of 11 sites (1975-2020). Defining drought events as warm, dry May-June climate, we found that WRC trees recovered radial growth to pre-drought rates within three years when post-drought climate conditions were average or cooler and wetter than average. However, radial growth recovery from drought was slower or absent when conditions were warmer and drier during the post-drought recovery period, which appeared to lead to the widespread mortality event across coastal populations. Annually resolved tree mortality in coastal populations predominately occurred in 2017-2018 (80% of sampled trees) and coincided with exceedingly hot temperatures and the longest regionally dry period for May to September (1970-2020). In interior populations, tree mortality was associated with warmer, drier conditions from August to September. Our findings forewarn that a warming climate and more frequent and severe seasonal droughts will likely increase the vulnerability of WRC to canopy dieback and mortality and possibly other drought-sensitive trees in one of the worlds largest carbon sinks.

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“…While fire is an important restoration tool in PNW grasslands, increasing pressures of species invasion (D'Antonio & Vitousek 1992; Ricciardi 2007) and climate change (Dalton & Fleishman 2021) are shifting baseline conditions globally and locally, making outcomes less predictable. Disturbance‐mediated invasion is not rare (Hobbs & Huenneke 1992), especially where invaders are disturbance‐adapted, seral species, or have feedbacks that modify disturbance regimes (Balch et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, plants experience a Mediterranean climate with warm, dry summers and cool, wet winters. Climate change is expected to cause mean annual temperatures to increase by 2.7–6°C, leading to an earlier start to the growing season and subsequent longer dry period (Dalton & Fleishman 2021). An earlier, warmer growing season can decrease native species population growth rates and increases the potential for introduced annual grasses to expand within the PNW (Dennehy et al 2011; Pfeifer‐Meister et al 2016; Reed et al 2021 c ), as they complete their entire life‐cycle before the onset of the intensifying summer drought (Clary 2008; HilleRisLambers et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disturbance: a double‐edged sword for restoration in a changing climate

Brambila

Reed

Bridgham

et al. 2022

Restoration Ecology

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Ecological restoration often relies on disturbance as a tool for establishing target plant communities, but disturbance can be a double‐edged sword, at times initiating invasion and unintended outcomes. Here we test how fire disturbance, designed to enhance restoration seeding success, combines with climate and initial vegetation conditions to shift perennial versus annual grass dominance and overall community diversity in Pacific Northwest grasslands. We seeded both native and introduced perennial grasses and native forbs in paired, replicated burned‐unburned plots in three sites along a latitudinal climate gradient from southern Oregon to central‐western Washington. Past restoration and climate manipulations at each site had increased the variation of starting conditions between plots. Burning promoted the expansion of extant forbs and perennial grasses across all sites. Burning also enhanced the seeding success of native perennial grass and native forbs at the northern and central site, and the success of introduced perennial grasses across all three sites. Annual grass dominance was driven more by latitude than burning, with annuals maintaining their dominance in the south and perennials in the north. At the same time, unrestored grasslands surrounding all sites remained dominated by perennial grasses, suggesting that initial plot clearing may have allowed for annual grass invasion in the southern site. When paired with disturbance, further warming may increase the risk of annual grass dominance, a potentially persistent state.

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Fifth Oregon climate assessment

Cited by 17 publications

References 463 publications

Evaluating Knowledge Gaps in Sea‐Level Rise Assessments From the United States

Evaluating Knowledge Gaps in Sea‐Level Rise Assessments From the United States

Canary in the Forest? – Tree mortality and canopy dieback of western redcedar linked to drier and warmer summer conditions

Disturbance: a double‐edged sword for restoration in a changing climate

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