Niche mismatches can impair our ability to predict potential invasions

Andrade, André Felipe Alves de; Velazco, Santiago José Elías; Marco, Paulo De

doi:10.1007/s10530-019-02037-2

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…F undamental to biogeography, ecology, and evolutionary biology is understanding why some species are widespread, whereas others are not (1). Studies focusing on species ranges often use predictive modeling to infer the potential spatial spread of species (2), with a growing number of studies comparing fundamental niches (i.e., the entire set of conditions that a species can tolerate) and realized niches (the actual set of conditions under which a species is found) (3)(4)(5). In recent times, our understanding of range sizes has advanced considerably thanks to integrative studies (6,7) that have provided key insights into how local adaptation (8), physiological tolerance (9), and propagule dispersal (10) shape population persistence and spread potential.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomics-informed models reveal extensive stretches of coastline under threat by an ecologically dominant invasive species

Hudson

Castilla

Teske

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Explaining why some species are widespread, while others are not, is fundamental to biogeography, ecology, and evolutionary biology. A unique way to study evolutionary and ecological mechanisms that either limit species’ spread or facilitate range expansions is to conduct research on species that have restricted distributions. Nonindigenous species, particularly those that are highly invasive but have not yet spread beyond the introduced site, represent ideal systems to study range size changes. Here, we used species distribution modeling and genomic data to study the restricted range of a highly invasive Australian marine species, the ascidian Pyura praeputialis. This species is an aggressive space occupier in its introduced range (Chile), where it has fundamentally altered the coastal community. We found high genomic diversity in Chile, indicating high adaptive potential. In addition, genomic data clearly showed that a single region from Australia was the only donor of genotypes to the introduced range. We identified over 3,500 km of suitable habitat adjacent to its current introduced range that has so far not been occupied, and importantly species distribution models were only accurate when genomic data were considered. Our results suggest that a slight change in currents, or a change in shipping routes, may lead to an expansion of the species’ introduced range that will encompass a vast portion of the South American coast. Our study shows how the use of population genomics and species distribution modeling in combination can unravel mechanisms shaping range sizes and forecast future range shifts of invasive species.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomics-informed models reveal extensive stretches of coastline under threat by an ecologically dominant invasive species

Hudson

Castilla

Teske

et al. 2021

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Although environmental species distribution models play a crucial role in predicting species' potential distribution (Andrade et al., 2019), we recognize that our predictions could be limited due to multiple uncertainties related to invasive species. A particular concern in using SDMs to project the potential distributions of invasive species is the recognition that climate niche shifts can occur during the process of invasion (Early & Sax, 2014; Medley, 2010; Parravicini et al., 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, it was reported that this species might be experiencing a climatic realized niche shift in the course of the invasion process (Dreyer et al., 2019). This indicates the non‐equilibrium of species niche and the possibility that the fundamental niche may not be represented adequately only in the native region (Andrade et al., 2019). Ligustrum lucidum is easily transported by humans, and as we mainly focus on predicting the areas susceptible to its invasion, we estimated habitat suitability and interpreted results assuming no limitations to their future dispersal.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting current and future global distribution of invasive Ligustrum lucidum W.T. Aiton: Assessing emerging risks to biodiversity hotspots

Montti

Velazco

Travis

et al. 2021

Diversity and Distributions

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“…Use of the maximum threshold value (the Max TSS threshold) to maximize the specificity and sensitivity of models and tends to produce more-restricted distributions 19 , e.g. : 57 , 60 , 61 . Additionally, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation test to evaluate the dependency of AUC on the number of occurrences 6 (Table 1 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Protected areas are not effective for the conservation of freshwater insects in Brazil

Dias-Silva

Vieira

Moreira

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Biodiversity conservation has faced many challenges, especially the conversion of natural areas that compete with use for agriculture, energy production and mineral extraction. This problem is further aggravated by lack of knowledge of the biodiversity that exists and the geographical distribution of different groups. The objectives of our study were to examine the distributional pattern of Gerromorpha diversity in Brazil, create a map of conservation priority areas, estimate the degree of protection that the current network of protected areas guarantees to this insect group, and identify the size thresholds in geographical distributions that would allow species to be protected. We used species occurrences from the Water Bugs Distributional Database, and we used 19 bioclimatic variables to build models of the potential distributions of species using the MaxEnt program. Using the potential model results, we calculated diversity metrics and overlapped them with the current state and federal “conservation units” (protected areas for biodiversity) in Brazil. Total beta diversity and turnover portions were separated into two faunistic groups, one in northern and the other in southern Brazil. The Amazon has higher beta diversity than what was predicted by the null models. We detected a positive relationship between species distribution area and occurrence in conservation units. Conservation units with less than 250 km2 do not protect Gerromorpha species. Our results reinforce the necessity of formulating new conservation strategies for this group, contemplating species with both restricted and ample distributions, because rare and specialist species are the most harmed by habitat reduction, given that they are more sensitive to environmental disturbance.

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Niche mismatches can impair our ability to predict potential invasions

Cited by 17 publications

References 86 publications

Genomics-informed models reveal extensive stretches of coastline under threat by an ecologically dominant invasive species

Genomics-informed models reveal extensive stretches of coastline under threat by an ecologically dominant invasive species

Predicting current and future global distribution of invasive Ligustrum lucidum W.T. Aiton: Assessing emerging risks to biodiversity hotspots

Protected areas are not effective for the conservation of freshwater insects in Brazil

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