Genomics-informed models reveal extensive stretches of coastline under threat by an ecologically dominant invasive species

Abstract

Explaining why some species are widespread, while others are not, is fundamental to biogeography, ecology, and evolutionary biology. A unique way to study evolutionary and ecological mechanisms that either limit species’ spread or facilitate range expansions is to conduct research on species that have restricted distributions. Nonindigenous species, particularly those that are highly invasive but have not yet spread beyond the introduced site, represent ideal systems to study range size changes. Here, we used species distribution modeling and genomic data to study the restricted range of a highly invasive Australian marine species, the ascidian Pyura praeputialis. This species is an aggressive space occupier in its introduced range (Chile), where it has fundamentally altered the coastal community. We found high genomic diversity in Chile, indicating high adaptive potential. In addition, genomic data clearly showed that a single region from Australia was the only donor of genotypes to the introduced range. We identified over 3,500 km of suitable habitat adjacent to its current introduced range that has so far not been occupied, and importantly species distribution models were only accurate when genomic data were considered. Our results suggest that a slight change in currents, or a change in shipping routes, may lead to an expansion of the species’ introduced range that will encompass a vast portion of the South American coast. Our study shows how the use of population genomics and species distribution modeling in combination can unravel mechanisms shaping range sizes and forecast future range shifts of invasive species.

Rapid niche shifts as drivers for the spread of a non‐indigenous species under novel environmental conditions

“…NIS are transported into a new location where the introduced species do not yet inhabit all suitable areas and are far from equilibrium (Gallien et al, 2012). This raises the question of whether to model with occurrence data from only their native range in ENMs (where the species is likely to be in equilibrium) or the entire range (Early & Sax, 2014; Guisan & Thuiller, 2005; Hudson et al, 2021). Studies using only the native range have poorly predicted habitat suitability in introduced ranges (Beaumont et al, 2009; Verbruggen et al, 2013) and thus an increasing number of ENM studies are considering both the native and introduced ranges.…”

Managing human-mediated range shifts: understanding spatial, temporal and genetic variation in marine non-native species

“…Many disciplines rely on accurate and complete taxonomic information, and this is of particular importance in invasion science [32][33][34]. Even when NNS can be unambiguously identified, it can be difficult to determine when and where they were first introduced into a region (for example see Hudson et al [35]). Since eradication or control efforts are improved by early detection [36], methods with high sensitivity are needed to increase the likelihood of successful management outcomes.…”

Microclimate reveals the true thermal niche of forest plant species

“…For instance, range dynamic models explicitly consider demographic processes such as dispersal and population dynamics (Zurell et al, 2016) and joint SDMs infer species interactions from co‐occurrence data (Ovaskainen & Abrego, 2020). Genomics‐informed SDMs aiming at including adaptability and demographic processes also offer interesting research avenues (Hudson et al, 2021). Additionally, many SDMs do not include the fine‐grained spatial heterogeneity of soil conditions that may occur across few metres and which matter for species distributions (Beauregard & de Blois, 2014; Roe et al, 2022).…”