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Although Brazil is a megadiverse country and thus a conservation priority, no study has yet quantified conservation gaps in the Brazilian protected areas (PAs) using extensive empirical data. Here, we evaluate the degree of biodiversity protection and knowledge within all the Brazilian PAs through a gap analysis of vertebrate, arthropod and angiosperm occurrences and phylogenetic data. Our results show that the knowledge on biodiversity in most Brazilian PAs remain scant as 71% of PAs have less than 0.01 species records per km2. Almost 55% of Brazilian species and about 40% of evolutionary lineages are not found in PAs, while most species have less than 30% of their geographic distribution within PAs. Moreover, the current PA network fails to protect the majority of endemic species. Most importantly, these results are similar for all taxonomic groups analysed here. The methods and results of our countrywide assessment are suggested to help design further inventories in order to map and secure the key biodiversity of the Brazilian PAs. In addition, our study illustrates the most common biodiversity knowledge shortfalls in the tropics.

Aim The knowledge of biodiversity facets such as species composition, distribution and ecological niche is fundamental for the construction of biogeographic hypotheses and conservation strategies. However, the knowledge on these facets is affected by major shortfalls, which are even more pronounced in the tropics. This study aims to evaluate the effect of sampling bias and variation in collection effort on Linnean, Wallacean and Hutchinsonian shortfalls and diversity measures as species richness, endemism and beta-diversity. Location Brazil.Methods We have built a database with over 1.5 million records of arthropods, vertebrates and angiosperms of Brazil, based on specimens deposited in scientific collections and on the taxonomic literature. We used null models to test the collection bias regarding the proximity to access routes. We also tested the influence of sampling effort on diversity measures by regression models. To investigate the Wallacean shortfall, we modelled the geographic distribution of over 4000 species and compared their observed distribution with models. To quantify the Hutchinsonian shortfall, we used environmental Euclidean distance of the records to identify regions with poorly sampled environmental conditions. To estimate the Linnean shortfall, we measured the similarity of species composition between regions close to and far from access routes. Results We demonstrated that despite the differences in sampling effort, the strong collection bias affects all taxonomic groups equally, generating a pattern of spatially biased sampling effort. This collection pattern contributes greatly to the biodiversity knowledge shortfalls, which directly affects the knowledge on the distribution patterns of diversity.Main conclusions The knowledge on species richness, species composition and endemism in the Brazilian biodiversity is strongly biased spatially. Despite differences in sampling effort for each taxonomic group, roadside bias affected them equally. Species composition similarity decreased with the distance from access routes, suggesting collection surveys at sites far from roads could increase the probability of sampling new geographic records or new species.

There have been numerous claims in the ecological literature that spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models results in shifts in the partial coefficients, which bias the interpretation of factors influencing geographical patterns. We evaluate the validity of these claims using gridded species richness data for the birds of North America, South America, Europe, Africa, the ex-USSR, and Australia. We used richness in 110 )110 km cells and environmental predictor variables to generate OLS and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) multiple regression models for each region. Spatial correlograms of the residuals from each OLS model were then used to identify the minimum distance between cells necessary to avoid short-distance residual spatial autocorrelation in each data set. This distance was used to subsample cells to generate spatially independent data. The partial OLS coefficients estimated with the full dataset were then compared to the distributions of coefficients created with the subsamples. We found that OLS coefficients generated from data containing residual spatial autocorrelation were statistically indistinguishable from coefficients generated from the same data sets in which short-distance spatial autocorrelation was not present in all 22 coefficients tested. Consistent with the statistical literature on this subject, we conclude that coefficients estimated from OLS regression are not seriously affected by the presence of spatial autocorrelation in gridded geographical data. Further, shifts in coefficients that occurred when using SAR tended to be correlated with levels of uncertainty in the OLS coefficients. Thus, shifts in the relative importance of the predictors between OLS and SAR models are expected when small-scale patterns for these predictors create weaker and more unstable broad-scale coefficients. Our results indicate both that OLS regression is unbiased and that differences between spatial and nonspatial regression models should be interpreted with an explicit awareness of spatial scale.

Aim  To test the prediction that environmental suitability derived from species distribution modelling (SDM) could be a surrogate for jaguar local population density estimates. Location  Americas. Methods  We used 1409 occurrence records of jaguars to model the distribution of the species using 11 SDM methods. We tested whether models’ suitability is linearly correlated with jaguar population densities estimated from 37 different locations. We evaluated whether the relationship between density and suitability forms a constraint envelope, in which higher densities are found mainly in regions with high suitability, whereas low densities can occur in regions with variable suitability. We tested this using heteroscedasticity test and quantile regressions. Results  A positive linear relationship between suitability and jaguar density was found only for four methods [bioclimatic envelope (BIOCLIM), genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP), maximum entropy (Maxent) and generalized boosting models (GBM)], but with weak explanatory power. BIOCLIM showed the strongest relationship. Variance of suitability for lower densities values was larger than for higher values for many of the SDM models used, but the quantile regression was significantly positive only for BIOCLIM and random forests (RF). RF and GBM provided the most accurate models when measured with the standard SDM evaluation metrics, but possess poor relationship with local density estimates. Main conclusions  Results indicate that the relationship between density and suitability could be better described as a triangular constraint envelope than by a straight positive relationship, and some of the SDM methods tested here were able to discriminate regions with high or low local population densities. Low jaguar densities can occur in areas with low or high suitability, whereas high values are restricted to areas where the suitability is greater. In high suitability areas but with low jaguar density estimates, we discuss how extrinsic factors driving abundance could act at local scales and then prevent higher densities that would be expected by the favourable regional environmental conditions.

There have been numerous claims in the ecological literature that spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models results in shifts in the partial coefficients, which bias the interpretation of factors influencing geographical patterns. We evaluate the validity of these claims using gridded species richness data for the birds of North America, South America, Europe, Africa, the ex-USSR, and Australia. We used richness in 110 )110 km cells and environmental predictor variables to generate OLS and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) multiple regression models for each region. Spatial correlograms of the residuals from each OLS model were then used to identify the minimum distance between cells necessary to avoid short-distance residual spatial autocorrelation in each data set. This distance was used to subsample cells to generate spatially independent data. The partial OLS coefficients estimated with the full dataset were then compared to the distributions of coefficients created with the subsamples. We found that OLS coefficients generated from data containing residual spatial autocorrelation were statistically indistinguishable from coefficients generated from the same data sets in which short-distance spatial autocorrelation was not present in all 22 coefficients tested. Consistent with the statistical literature on this subject, we conclude that coefficients estimated from OLS regression are not seriously affected by the presence of spatial autocorrelation in gridded geographical data. Further, shifts in coefficients that occurred when using SAR tended to be correlated with levels of uncertainty in the OLS coefficients. Thus, shifts in the relative importance of the predictors between OLS and SAR models are expected when small-scale patterns for these predictors create weaker and more unstable broad-scale coefficients. Our results indicate both that OLS regression is unbiased and that differences between spatial and nonspatial regression models should be interpreted with an explicit awareness of spatial scale.

The distribution and composition of aquatic insect communities in streams at a local scale are considered to be primarily determined by environmental factors and interactive relationships within the system. Here, we evaluated the effects of forest fragmentation and forest cover changes on habitat characteristics of streamlets (igarapés) in Amazonian forests and on the aquatic insect communities found Publication number 515 of the PDBFF Technical Series.

Species distribution models (SDMs) assume equilibrium between species' distribution and the environment. However, this assumption can be violated under restricted dispersal and spatially autocorrelated environmental conditions. Here we used a model to simulate species' ranges expansion under two non-equilibrium scenarios, evaluating the performance of SDM coupled with spatial eigenvector mapping. The highest fit is for the models that include space, although the relative importance of spatial variables during the range expansion differs in the two scenarios. Incorporating space to the models was important only under colonization-lag non-equilibrium, under the expected scenario. Thus, mechanisms that generate range cohesion and determine species' distribution under climate changes can be captured by spatial modelling, with advantages compared with other techniques and in line with recent claims that SDMs have to account for more complex dynamic scenarios.