Predicting current and future global distribution of invasive <i>Ligustrum lucidum</i> W.T. Aiton: Assessing emerging risks to biodiversity hotspots

Montti, Lía; Velazco, Santiago José Elías; Travis, Justin M. J.; Grau, Chilo

doi:10.1111/ddi.13303

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…For each projected pixel, the MOP analysis allows for restricting the portion of the training data used to compute the Euclidean distance (Owens et al, 2013). Within species accessible area, we computed environmental similarity between each projected pixel and the nearest 10% of training data points (Montti et al, 2021), and then filtered habitat suitability estimates for projected pixels showing very high (MOP values ≥0.9), high (MOP ≥0.8) and moderate (MOP ≥0.7) environmental similarity with the training data. To minimise issues with unlimited dispersal, we restricted all projections to the respective calibration area defined for each species.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pervasive impacts of climate change on the woodiness and ecological generalism of dry forest plant assemblages

et al. 2023

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1. Climate emergency is a significant threat to biodiversity in the 21st century, but species will not be equally affected. In summing up the responses of different species at the local scale, we can assess changes in the species quantity and composition of biotic assemblages. 2. We used more than 420K curated occurrence records of 3060 plant species to model current and future patterns of plant species distribution in one of the world's largest tropical dry forests-the Caatinga. While allowing different model extrapolation scenarios, we estimated potential changes in the species richness and composition of dryland plant assemblages in response to projected climate change, and assessed how the ecological generalism and woodiness of plant assemblages can be impacted by the climate crisis. 3. More than 99% of plant assemblages were projected to lose species by 2060, with biotic homogenisation-the decrease in spatial beta diversity-forecasted in 40% of the Caatinga. The replacement of narrow-range woody species by wide-range non-woody ones should impact at least 90% of Caatinga plant assemblages. The exacerbated species loss in the dryland plant assemblages was connected to the heterogenisation and homogenisation of biotic assemblages. Still, the magnitude of climate change impacts on ecological generalism and woodiness patterns of dryland plant assemblages differ according to the direction of the biotic change process. 4. Synthesis. The future increase in aridity will change the patterns of woodiness and ecological generalism of tropical dry forest plant assemblages by decreasing vegetation diversity and complexity. The projected biotic changes in dryland plant assemblages indicate the erosion of ecosystem services linked to biomass productivity and carbon storage. We highlight the importance of long-term conservation planning for maintaining tropical dry forests.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pervasive impacts of climate change on the woodiness and ecological generalism of dry forest plant assemblages

et al. 2023

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“…To account for the impact of model extrapolation on each species projection, we computed the mobility‐oriented parity (MOP) metric (Owens et al, 2013) within the calibration area of each species. We calculated the MOP metric by measuring the Euclidean distance between environmental conditions of the projected pixel and the nearest 10% training data observations (Montti et al, 2021). The MOP metric was further normalized to 1 and subtracted from 1 to reflect environmental similarity (Owens et al, 2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change should drive mammal defaunation in tropical dry forests

Moura,

Oliveira,

Paglia

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Human‐induced climate change has intensified negative impacts on socioeconomic factors, the environment, and biodiversity, including changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in global average temperatures. Drylands are particularly at risk, with projections suggesting they will become hotter, drier, and less suitable for a significant portion of their species, potentially leading to mammal defaunation. We use ecological niche modelling and community ecology biodiversity metrics to examine potential geographical range shifts of non‐volant mammal species in the largest Neotropical dryland, the Caatinga, and evaluate impacts of climate change on mammal assemblages. According to projections, 85% of the mammal species will lose suitable habitats, with one quarter of species projected to completely lose suitable habitats by 2060. This will result in a decrease in species richness for more than 90% of assemblages and an increase in compositional similarity to nearby assemblages (i.e., reduction in spatial beta diversity) for 70% of the assemblages. Small‐sized mammals will be the most impacted and lose most of their suitable habitats, especially in highlands. The scenario is even worse in the eastern half of Caatinga where habitat destruction already prevails, compounding the threats faced by species there. While species‐specific responses can vary with respect to dispersal, behavior, and energy requirements, our findings indicate that climate change can drive mammal assemblages to biotic homogenization and species loss, with drastic changes in assemblage trophic structure. For successful long‐term socioenvironmental policy and conservation planning, it is critical that findings from biodiversity forecasts are considered.

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“…The final models were generated by ensemble using the average of the best algorithms (those with Jaccard over the average for a single model) for current and future conditions, avoiding the inclusion of poor predictions in the final model. Ensemble models were binarized using a threshold that maximised the Jaccard metric (0.545), which showed the best values of sensitivity (0.984) and specificity (0.991) (Montti et al, 2021; Velazco et al, 2019) (Supplementary file S3). The ensemble is a commonly used method to deal with uncertainty caused by different algorithms (Diniz‐Filho et al, 2009; Thuiller et al, 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the South American invasion pathways of the mayfly Cloeon dipterum Linnaeus 1761 (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae) using species distribution models

Cruz

Alencar

Cardoso

et al. 2023

Insect Conserv Diversity

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1. Cloeon dipterum is one of the rare exotic aquatic insect species found in the American continent. The species was recently introduced to Argentina. Apart from a few recent records concentrated in a small area in Argentina, there are no data available on its distribution on the continent. Using modelling techniques, we predicted for the first time the current and future areas of high invasion risk in South America.2. We produced species distribution models (SDMs) using six algorithms and based on 4672 occurrences and 20 environmental variables for both current conditions and future scenarios (GCMs: CanESM5 and MIROC6/SSPs: 2-4.5 and 5-8.5).3. The models predicted two large contiguous areas of high suitability and stability over time in all future forecasts (Paraná and coastal pathways), both of which are connected to the colonised area in Argentina and extend to Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil. The models also identified two potential new areas for introduction, Patagonia (Chile and Argentina) and the northeast of Brazil. However, introduction is considered unlikely in the highly suitable area in the Brazilian Northeast due to the lack of connectivity with donor areas. Models provide specific regions that can be used to detect colonisation expansion and improve our ability to implement measures to prevent introduction. 4. Our results provide evidence that C. dipterum will be a long-term element of South American diversity. Its persistence in distinctive climatic scenarios may pose a threat to resident controphic species, such as Callibaetis.

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Predicting current and future global distribution of invasive Ligustrum lucidum W.T. Aiton: Assessing emerging risks to biodiversity hotspots

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 13 publications

References 86 publications

Pervasive impacts of climate change on the woodiness and ecological generalism of dry forest plant assemblages

Pervasive impacts of climate change on the woodiness and ecological generalism of dry forest plant assemblages

Climate change should drive mammal defaunation in tropical dry forests

Predicting the South American invasion pathways of the mayfly Cloeon dipterum Linnaeus 1761 (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae) using species distribution models

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