Monthly and daily precipitation trends in the Mediterranean (1950–2000)

Norrant, Caroline; Douguédroit, Annick

doi:10.1007/s00704-005-0163-y

Cited by 197 publications

(132 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The use of a great number of indexes, especially the PCI and the monthly subdivision of the total precipitation and of the number of wet days, clearly confirms that changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation are not statistically significant. The signs of climate change as illustrated by several authors and reports are not detected in Tuscany for the analysed dataset, even if other zones of Mediterranean area show signals of global warming impacts (Piervitali et al, 1997;Norrant and Douguédroit, 2006). The authors presume that the presence of numerous feedbacks could delay or delete the consequences of global warming on the precipitation regime, especially in a complex climatic system like central Italy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

A comprehensive analysis of changes in precipitation regime in Tuscany

Fatichi

Caporali

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The analysis of changes in precipitation is nowadays of great interest because rainfall space-time distribution is considered one of the most important indexes in the natural climatic cycle. This study proposes an investigation of precipitation time series recorded in the region of Tuscany (Central Italy) in the period 1916-2003. Forty indexes are defined to evaluate changes in the precipitation patterns and trend detection is performed through statistical tests to assess the significance of temporal and spatial changes in the precipitation regime. The presented analysis does not show strong evidence of nonstationarity. A few indexes in a given number of stations of the analysed territory do show a slight trend, but the significance of those trends is lost once the multiple location testing issue is considered. The complexity of the climate in central Italy, i.e. the presence of numerous feedbacks might in fact distort or remove the consequences of global warming on the precipitation regime.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

A comprehensive analysis of changes in precipitation regime in Tuscany

Fatichi

Caporali

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Norrant and Douguédroit (2006) also revealed that precipitation trends appear to significantly diminish primarily during winter months, March in the Atlantic region, October in the Mediterranean Spain, December in the Lions and Genoa Gulfs, January, winter and annually in Greece, winter and annually in Italy and winter in the Near East, and increase in April in the two gulfs. Time-series evaluations of regional series indicate that winter precipitation totals have been decreasing in many regions that are not statistically significant in view of the large variability (Xoplaki, 2002;Norrant and Douguédroit, 2006). For the Mediterranean Sea, precipitation variability and water budget have been investigated by using gauge-satellite merged products and atmospheric re-analyses (Mariotti et al, 2002).…”

Section: Background Of the Mediterranean Precipitation Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 95%

“…For the period 1951-2000, opposite to the prevailing decreasing trend, there is some increase in winter precipitation from southern Israel to northern Libya in accordance with increased positive modes of the Mediterranean Oscillation (Jacobeit et al, 2004). Norrant and Douguédroit (2006) indicated that the prevailing trends for the second half of the 20th century over the Mediterranean are negative in winter and spring, although areas with significant trends are relatively restricted, depending on the month. Norrant and Douguédroit (2006) also revealed that precipitation trends appear to significantly diminish primarily during winter months, March in the Atlantic region, October in the Mediterranean Spain, December in the Lions and Genoa Gulfs, January, winter and annually in Greece, winter and annually in Italy and winter in the Near East, and increase in April in the two gulfs.…”

Section: Background Of the Mediterranean Precipitation Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Norrant and Douguédroit (2006) indicated that the prevailing trends for the second half of the 20th century over the Mediterranean are negative in winter and spring, although areas with significant trends are relatively restricted, depending on the month. Norrant and Douguédroit (2006) also revealed that precipitation trends appear to significantly diminish primarily during winter months, March in the Atlantic region, October in the Mediterranean Spain, December in the Lions and Genoa Gulfs, January, winter and annually in Greece, winter and annually in Italy and winter in the Near East, and increase in April in the two gulfs. Time-series evaluations of regional series indicate that winter precipitation totals have been decreasing in many regions that are not statistically significant in view of the large variability (Xoplaki, 2002;Norrant and Douguédroit, 2006).…”

Section: Background Of the Mediterranean Precipitation Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey

Türkeş

Koç

Sarış

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

160

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Long-term changes and trends in the series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation totals of 97 stations in Turkey were analysed by considering their spatial and temporal characteristics. Secular trends in precipitation series were examined with the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test for the general period 1930-2002, whereas spatial variabilities of, and relationships between, the precipitation series at 86 of these stations were investigated by the principal component analysis (PCA) for the period 1953-2002 when the length of data is at its best for the stations subjected to the PCA. Major findings of the paper can be summarized as follows: (1) First principal component (PC1) generally describes climatology of the precipitation totals in Turkey that is closely governed by the large-scale and/or synoptic scale atmospheric features (i.e. surface and upper air pressure and wind systems). (2) In winter, it is very likely that the greater PC1 loadings over the western and south-western parts of Turkey characterized mainly with the Mediterranean rainfall regimes indicate influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and associated weather patterns. However, smaller PC1 loadings over the north-eastern and eastern parts of Turkey are very likely related to the influence of the northerly mid-latitude cyclones, and the northerly and easterly circulations linked with the Eastern Europe and the Siberian originated high pressures on spatial variations of winter precipitation. (3) As for the long-term temporal variability, it was detected that there is an apparent decreasing trend in the winter precipitation totals of Turkey, whereas a general increasing trend is dominant in the precipitation totals of spring, summer and autumn seasons. (4) Observed decreasing trends are the strongest over the Mediterranean and the Mediterranean Transition rainfall regime regions. (5) Strong decreasing trends are also mostly found in winter months of the year, while apparent increasing trends show up at some stations in the months of April, August and October.

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“…The Mediterranean area may be particularly sensitive. Some authors reported significant changes in precipitation patterns with decreasing precipitation trends for the Mediterranean (Alpert et al 2002;Norrant and Douguédroit 2006) and significant changes in extreme events, with higher rainfall concentrations in a small number of events, and more frequent and extreme droughts (Easterling 2000;Burt et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

Yang

Pei

Zhang

et al. 2017

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridityhumidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

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Monthly and daily precipitation trends in the Mediterranean (1950–2000)

Cited by 197 publications

References 49 publications

A comprehensive analysis of changes in precipitation regime in Tuscany

A comprehensive analysis of changes in precipitation regime in Tuscany

Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

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