Modelo Matemático para Descrever Transmissão de Leishmaniose

Rosales, Juan Carlos; Yang, Hyun Mo

doi:10.5540/tema.2006.07.02.0337

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 5 publications

(6 reference statements)

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“…Because cases of HVL arise two years after the occurrence of canine cases [11], it was decided to test the hypothesis that the effects of VL control measures on the incidence of HVL can be observed after a period of 1 to 2 years. Thus, the objective of this study was to measure the coverage of two VL control activities and one VL surveillance measure in an endemic urban area and to evaluate their relationship with the occurrence of VL in humans.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Canine serological survey and dog culling and its relationship with human visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic urban area

Bermudi

Costa

Nunes³

et al. 2020

BMC Infect Dis

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Background: Visceral leishmaniasis is an important but neglected disease that is spreading and is highly lethal when left untreated. This study sought to measure the Leishmania infantum seroprevalence in dogs, the coverage of its control activities (identification of the canine reservoir by serological survey, dog culling and insecticide spraying) and to evaluate its relationship with the occurrence of the disease in humans in the municipalities of Araçatuba and Birigui, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Information from 2006 to 2015 was georeferenced for each municipality and modeling was performed for the two municipalities together. To do this, latent Gaussian Bayesian models with the incorporation of a spatiotemporal structure and Poisson distribution were used. The Besag-York-Mollie models were applied for random spatial effects, as also were autoregressive models of order 1 for random temporal effects. The modeling was performed using the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations) deterministic approach, considering both the numbers of cases as well as the coverage paired year by year and lagged at one and two years. Results: Control activity coverage was observed to be generally low. The behavior of the temporal tendency in the human disease presented distinct patterns in the two municipalities, however, in both the tendency was to decline. The canine serological survey presented as a protective factor only in the two-year lag model. Conclusions: The canine serological coverage, even at low intensity, carried out jointly with the culling of the positive dogs, suggested a decreasing effect on the occurrence of the disease in humans, whose effects would be seen two years after it was carried out.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Canine serological survey and dog culling and its relationship with human visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic urban area

Bermudi

Costa

Nunes³

et al. 2020

BMC Infect Dis

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“…Mathematical modeling has been applied in studies of visceral leishmaniasis in order to understand the transmission dynamics of this infection [8], [14], [15], [16], [17], [18], [19] and the impact of control strategies. Hasibeder et al (1992) and Dye et al (1992) proposed and implemented models to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of CVL, which was estimated between 1.44 and 11, this large uncertainty being attributed to the poor performance of the available diagnostic tests.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Culling Dogs in Scenarios of Imperfect Control: Realistic Impact on the Prevalence of Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis

et al. 2013

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BackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis belongs to the list of neglected tropical diseases and is considered a public health problem worldwide. Spatial correlation between the occurrence of the disease in humans and high rates of canine infection suggests that in the presence of the vector, canine visceral leishmaniasis is the key factor for triggering transmission to humans. Despite the control strategies implemented, such as the sacrifice of infected dogs being put down, the incidence of American visceral leishmaniasis remains high in many Latin American countries.Methodology/Principal FindingsMathematical models were developed to describe the transmission dynamics of canine leishmaniasis and its control by culling. Using these models, imperfect control scenarios were implemented to verify the possible factors which alter the effectiveness of controlling this disease in practice.Conclusions/SignificanceA long-term continuous program targeting both asymptomatic and symptomatic dogs should be effective in controlling canine leishmaniasis in areas of low to moderate transmission (R0 up to 1.4). However, the indiscriminate sacrifice of asymptomatic dogs with positive diagnosis may jeopardize the effectiveness of the control program, if tests with low specificity are used, increasing the chance of generating outrage in the population, and leading to lower adherence to the program. Therefore, culling must be planned accurately and implemented responsibly and never as a mechanical measure in large scale. In areas with higher transmission, culling alone is not an effective control strategy.

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“…A dinâmica da transmissão da LVC em Birigui e Araçatuba foi representada por modelos matemáticos dinâmicos. A literatura tem diversas propostas de modelos para LVC, variando no número de compartimentos e nas taxas entre estes 17,18,19,20 . Essas variações refletem a existência de lacunas no conhecimento sobre a história natural da LVC, com poucos estudos disponíveis para basear a elaboração dos modelos 21,22,23 .…”

Section: Metodologiaunclassified

Controle da leishmaniose visceral canina por eutanásia: estimativa de efeito baseado em inquérito e modelagem matemática

et al. 2020

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A leishmaniose visceral é uma doença emergente e negligenciada em processo de expansão para áreas urbanas. A incidência da doença humana está relacionada com a infecção canina. Araçatuba e Birigui são municípios do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, com soroprevalência da infecção canina de 8 a 10%, que empregam estratégias de controle voltadas ao reservatório canino baseado em inquérito sorológico e eutanásia dos cães soropositivos. Usando dados desses programas de controle para parametrizar modelos matemáticos, este estudo avaliou a eficácia dessas atividades. Estimamos que o controle atualmente empregado é capaz de reduzir em cerca de 20% a incidência de casos de leishmaniose visceral canina (LVC). Considerando-se um controle contínuo e um esforço das atividades de inquérito sorológico igual ao triplo da média do observado em Araçatuba e Birigui, a atividade de eutanásia de cães com diagnóstico positivo seria efetiva para o controle da infecção canina. Embora teoricamente possível, na prática, o controle da LVC com as estratégias preconizadas atualmente é insuficiente, pois exigiria superpor dificuldades enfrentadas por estas atividades como falta de recursos materiais, humanos e financeiros, além das questões éticas e jurídicas associadas.

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Modelo Matemático para Descrever Transmissão de Leishmaniose

Cited by 5 publications

References 5 publications

Canine serological survey and dog culling and its relationship with human visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic urban area

Canine serological survey and dog culling and its relationship with human visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic urban area

Culling Dogs in Scenarios of Imperfect Control: Realistic Impact on the Prevalence of Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis

Controle da leishmaniose visceral canina por eutanásia: estimativa de efeito baseado em inquérito e modelagem matemática

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