BackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis belongs to the list of neglected tropical diseases and is considered a public health problem worldwide. Spatial correlation between the occurrence of the disease in humans and high rates of canine infection suggests that in the presence of the vector, canine visceral leishmaniasis is the key factor for triggering transmission to humans. Despite the control strategies implemented, such as the sacrifice of infected dogs being put down, the incidence of American visceral leishmaniasis remains high in many Latin American countries.Methodology/Principal FindingsMathematical models were developed to describe the transmission dynamics of canine leishmaniasis and its control by culling. Using these models, imperfect control scenarios were implemented to verify the possible factors which alter the effectiveness of controlling this disease in practice.Conclusions/SignificanceA long-term continuous program targeting both asymptomatic and symptomatic dogs should be effective in controlling canine leishmaniasis in areas of low to moderate transmission (R0 up to 1.4). However, the indiscriminate sacrifice of asymptomatic dogs with positive diagnosis may jeopardize the effectiveness of the control program, if tests with low specificity are used, increasing the chance of generating outrage in the population, and leading to lower adherence to the program. Therefore, culling must be planned accurately and implemented responsibly and never as a mechanical measure in large scale. In areas with higher transmission, culling alone is not an effective control strategy.

OBJECTIVE Estimate the coverage of control measures of visceral leishmaniasis and relate them with the occurrence of human visceral leishmaniasis in endemic urban area.METHODS Cases of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis were considered as study population and evaluated by a serological survey conducted in Araçatuba, state São Paulo, from 2007 to 2015. The cases of human visceral leishmaniasis were geocoded by the address of the patients and the canine disease by the address of the dogs’ owners. The coverage of serological survey, euthanasia, and insecticide spraying was calculated, as well as the canine seroprevalence and the incidence rates of human visceral leishmaniasis. The relationship between human visceral leishmaniasis and control measures was evaluated, as well as the seroprevalence by comparing maps and by linear regression. The relationship between the canine and the human disease was also evaluated by the Ripley’s K function.RESULTS The incidence rates of human visceral leishmaniasis showed a period of decline (2007 to 2009) and a period of stability (2010 to 2015), a behavior similar to that of canine seroprevalence. In general, the coverage of control measures was low, and the non-association with the incidence of human visceral leishmaniasis can be a result of the period analyzed and of the small number of analyzed units (sectors of the Superintendence for the Control of Endemic Diseases). The distribution of human cases showed spatial dependence with the distribution of seropositive dogs from 2007 to 2009.CONCLUSIONS This study reaffirmed the relationship between the occurrence of the disease in humans and dogs, it verified a decrease in the rates of visceral leishmaniasis in Araçatuba over time, even at low coverage of control activities. However, further studies are needed to determine if factors beyond monitoring and control measures are involved in the reduction of incidences.

BackgroundThe incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), one of the most important neglected diseases worldwide, is increasing in Brazil. The objectives of this study were to determine the canine VL (CanL) seroprevalence in an urban area of Araçatuba municipality and to evaluate its relationship with the characteristics of dogs and their owners.ResultsThe CanL seroprevalence in the study area was 0.081 (95% credible interval [CI]: 0.068–0.096). The following covariates/categories were positively associated with the occurrence of a seropositive dog: more than 10 dogs that had lived in the house (odds ratio [OR] = 2.36; 95% CI: 1.03–5.43) (baseline: 0–10 dogs); house with dogs that previously died of VL (OR = 4.85; 95% CI: 2.65–8.86) or died of causes other than old age (OR = 2.26; 95% CI: 1.12–4.46) (baseline: natural or no deaths); dogs that spent the day in a sheltered backyard (OR = 2.14; 95% CI: 1.05–4.40); dogs that spent the day in an unsheltered backyard or the street (OR = 2.67; 95% CI: 1.28–5.57) (baseline: inside home). Spatial dependence among observations occurred within about 45.7 m.ConclusionsThe number of dogs that had lived in the house, previous deaths by VL or other cause, and the place the dog stayed during the day were associated with the occurrence of a VL seropositive dog. The short-distance spatial dependence could be related to the vector characteristics, producing a local neighbourhood VL transmission pattern. The geostatistical approach in a Bayesian context using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) allowed to identify the covariates associated with VL, including its spatially dependent transmission pattern.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12917-018-1550-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A leishmaniose visceral é uma doença emergente e negligenciada em processo de expansão para áreas urbanas. A incidência da doença humana está relacionada com a infecção canina. Araçatuba e Birigui são municípios do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, com soroprevalência da infecção canina de 8 a 10%, que empregam estratégias de controle voltadas ao reservatório canino baseado em inquérito sorológico e eutanásia dos cães soropositivos. Usando dados desses programas de controle para parametrizar modelos matemáticos, este estudo avaliou a eficácia dessas atividades. Estimamos que o controle atualmente empregado é capaz de reduzir em cerca de 20% a incidência de casos de leishmaniose visceral canina (LVC). Considerando-se um controle contínuo e um esforço das atividades de inquérito sorológico igual ao triplo da média do observado em Araçatuba e Birigui, a atividade de eutanásia de cães com diagnóstico positivo seria efetiva para o controle da infecção canina. Embora teoricamente possível, na prática, o controle da LVC com as estratégias preconizadas atualmente é insuficiente, pois exigiria superpor dificuldades enfrentadas por estas atividades como falta de recursos materiais, humanos e financeiros, além das questões éticas e jurídicas associadas.

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis is an important but neglected disease that is spreading and is highly lethal when left untreated. This study sought to measure the Leishmania infantum seroprevalence in dogs, the coverage of its control activities (identification of the canine reservoir by serological survey, dog culling and insecticide spraying) and to evaluate its relationship with the occurrence of the disease in humans in the municipalities of Araçatuba and Birigui, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Information from 2006 to 2015 was georeferenced for each municipality and modeling was performed for the two municipalities together. To do this, latent Gaussian Bayesian models with the incorporation of a spatiotemporal structure and Poisson distribution were used. The Besag-York-Mollie models were applied for random spatial effects, as also were autoregressive models of order 1 for random temporal effects. The modeling was performed using the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations) deterministic approach, considering both the numbers of cases as well as the coverage paired year by year and lagged at one and two years. Results: Control activity coverage was observed to be generally low. The behavior of the temporal tendency in the human disease presented distinct patterns in the two municipalities, however, in both the tendency was to decline. The canine serological survey presented as a protective factor only in the two-year lag model. Conclusions: The canine serological coverage, even at low intensity, carried out jointly with the culling of the positive dogs, suggested a decreasing effect on the occurrence of the disease in humans, whose effects would be seen two years after it was carried out.

Background: The assumption of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) control program is that human disease (HVL) is related to canine infection (CanL), and that supports the culling of infected dogs. Objectives: Estimate the coverage of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) control measures and to relate them to the occurrence of HVL in an endemic urban area (Araçatuba, SP). Determine the CanL seroprevalence and to evaluate its relationship with the characteristics of dogs and their owners. Evaluated the culling dogs efficacy in controlling the canine infection. in the municipalities of Araçatuba and Birigui, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: The cases of HVL and households with seropositive dogs registered in the period from 2007 to 2015 were geocoded the coverage of the serological inquiry, culling dogs and chemical spaying, canine seroprevalence and HVL incidence rates were calculated. The relationship between CanL, HVL and control measures was evaluated by map comparison, by linear regression and was also assessed using the Ripley K function. A cross-sectional study was conducted between 2015 and 2016, based on a sample of the canine population. Seroprevalence was modelled by logistic regression in a geostatistical approach using the integrated nested Laplace approximation for Bayesian inference. The spatial component was modelled by a Gaussian field, using a stochastic partial differential equation approach. Secondary data and the surveys were used to elaborate and calibrate dynamic models of canine disease transmission. Results: Verified the decrease of HVL and the CanL in Araçatuba over time, even in low coverage of control measures. The CanL seroprevalence was 8% in Araçatuba and 4% in Birigui. The occurrence of a seropositive dog in Araçatuba was associated with the presence of more than 10 dogs living in the same house, house with dogs that previously died of VL or died of other unnatural causes, and the place of dogs stayed during the day. Spatial dependence among observations occurred within about 46 m. Considering a continuous control and a serological survey effort three times higher than the average of the observed in Araçatuba and twice as high in Birigui, the activities related to culling dogs is effective in controlling canine infection. Conclusions: The observation of VL decrease over time may be related to control measures. The short-distance spatial dependence could be related to the vector characteristics, producing a local neighbourhood VL transmission pattern. The culling dogs were effective in controlling the disease in the dogs' population. However, this result should be understood with caution given the operational complexity of this measure and related ethical issues. New studies need to be developed for a better understanding if factors other than control activities would be involved in reducing the incidence of VL. It is necessary in addition to long-term planning of the control actions carried out by the program, investment in researches that evaluate the cost-effectiveness of other measures that may...

Background: Visceral leishmaniasis is an important but neglected disease that is spreading and is highly lethal when left untreated. This study sought to measure the Leishmania infantum seroprevalence in dogs, the coverage of its control activities (identification of the canine reservoir by serological survey, dog culling and insecticide spraying) and to evaluate its relationship with the occurrence of the disease in humans in the municipalities of Araçatuba and Birigui, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods: Information from 2006 to 2015 was georeferenced for each municipality and modeling was performed for the two municipalities together. To do this, latent Gaussian Bayesian models with the incorporation of a spatio-temporal structure and Poisson distribution were used. The Besag-York-Mollie models were applied for random spatial effects, as also were autoregressive models of order 1 for random temporal effects. The modeling was performed using the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations) deterministic approach, considering both the numbers of cases as well as the coverage paired year by year and lagged at one and two years. Results: Control activity coverage was observed to be generally low. The behavior of the temporal tendency in the human disease presented distinct patterns in the two municipalities, however, in both the tendency was to decline. The canine serological survey presented as a protective factor only in the two-year lag model. Conclusions: The canine serological coverage, even at low intensity, carried out jointly with the culling of the positive dogs, suggested a decreasing effect on the occurrence of the disease in humans, whose effects would be seen two years after it was carried out.