Modeling potential geographical distribution of the wild nests of Melipona capixaba Moure & Camargo, 1994 (Hymenoptera, Apidae): conserving isolated populations in mountain habitats

Abstract

Mountain endemic species are usually related to a restricted set of ecological conditions, presenting a fragmented range interspersed by lowland that may prevent its dispersion and favors isolation and speciation. Here we investigate the pattern of distribution of Melipona capixaba, an endemic bee species of mountain areas of central Atlantic forest by means of species distribution modeling procedures. We aimed to describe the potential distribution of this species considering broad climatic variables and evaluate the possible non-equilibrium of its range using models that simulate restricted dispersion by inclusion of spatial variables. The models indicate that the known occurrence points are located in a small fraction of its potential distribution, which is fragmented in different mountain ridges. Models without spatial variables predicted a larger range and an overlap with the distribution of a closely related species, M. scutellaris. Ensemble models also indicate areas to future search for new population of this species, as well as important areas for its conservation.

Species conservation under future climate change: the case of Bombus bellicosus, a potentially threatened South American bumblebee species

“…We also used the first seven PCs obtained for each future climatic scenario in the modelling procedures to predict the future distribution of B. bellicosus. Using PCs to predict species distribution is recommended to reduce collinearity among environmental variables, and to avoid model overfitting, which may result in biologically unreliable species potential distributions (Jiménez-Valverde et al 2011;Serra et al 2012;Silva et al 2014).…”

Distributional analysis of Melipona stingless bees (Apidae: Meliponini) in Central America and Mexico: setting baseline information for their conservation

“…The scattered appearance of predicted core areas may be related in part to the merging of the models, but also to the fragmented availability of optimal conditions, as has been suggested for other Melipona species (e.g., M. capixaba ; Serra et al 2012).…”

Range increase of a Neotropical orchid bee under future scenarios of climate change

“…nigrita. Using PCs to predict species distribution is recommended to decrease collinearity among environmental variables and to avoid model overfitting that may result in biologically unreliable potential distributions (Jiménez-Valverde et al 2011;Serra et al 2012;.…”

“…By projecting such conditions onto geographical space, the target species' potential distribution is predicted. These techniques are being successfully used in a wide variety of studies to: (1) predict the distribution of rare, threatened or invasive species (Serra et al 2012;Silva et al 2013;; (2) optimize future faunal/floristic surveys (De Siqueira et al 2009;Sousa-Baena et al 2014);and (3) inform the establishment of future protected areas (Nóbrega and De Marco Jr 2011).…”