No abstract

Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored. Here, using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result.

Despite the importance of tropical biodiversity, informative species distributional data are seldom available for biogeographical study or setting conservation priorities. Modelling ecological niche distributions of species offers a potential solution; however, the utility of old locality data from museums, and of more recent remotely sensed satellite data, remains poorly explored, especially for rapidly changing tropical landscapes. Using 29 modern data sets of environmental land coverage and 621 chameleon occurrence localities from Madagascar (historical and recent), here we demonstrate a significant ability of our niche models in predicting species distribution. At 11 recently inventoried sites, highest predictive success (85.1%) was obtained for models based only on modern occurrence data (74.7% and 82.8% predictive success, respectively, for pre-1978 and all data combined). Notably, these models also identified three intersecting areas of over-prediction that recently yielded seven chameleon species new to science. We conclude that ecological niche modelling using recent locality records and readily available environmental coverage data provides informative biogeographical data for poorly known tropical landscapes, and offers innovative potential for the discovery of unknown distributional areas and unknown species.

Relationships between spatial patterns of bird and mammal species richness in north‐eastern Mexico were analysed in relation to the location of three biosphere reserves (El Abra‐Tanchipa, El Cielo, and Sierra Gorda) and 13 priority areas recently identified for conservation. Ecological niches were modelled and potential distributions delimited for 285 bird and 114 mammal species using a genetic algorithm based on locality information from museum specimens and 15 selected environmental attributes. Potential distributions were transformed into hypothesized current distributions based on species–habitat associations as reflected in a recent land‐use map. Although species richness was lower when distributions were reduced from potential to current, spatial patterns of potential and current richness were similar. Heuristic, complementarity‐based prioritization procedures were used to identify combinations of areas and sites with maximal species representation: the biosphere reserves included 79% of birds and 74% of mammal species; eight priority areas provided an additional 11% of birds and 13% of mammals; the remaining 10% of birds and 13% of mammals were concentrated in new sites across the study area.