Along with other human impacts, climate change is an important driver of biological changes worldwide and is expected to severely affect species distributions. Although dramatic range shifts and contractions are predicted for many taxa occurring at higher latitudes, including bumble bees, the response of widespread tropical species is less clear due in part to scarcity of reliable occurrence data. Newly mobilized specimen records and improved species distribution models facilitate more robust assessment of future climate effects under various scenarios. Here, we predict both current and future distribution of the orchid bee Eulaema nigrita Lepeletier, 1841 (Apidae: Euglossinae), a large-bodied species widely distributed in the Neotropics whose populations within the Amazon region are believed to be controlled by cleptoparasitic Euglossini bees, such as Exaerete smaragdina Guérin-Menéville, 1844 and Aglae caerulea Lepeletier and Serville, 1825. Under both current and future scenarios of climate change, El. nigrita is expected to persist in deforested areas including those that might suffer desertification. While under current climatic conditions this species is not expected to occur in central Amazonia where the forest is still conserved, its range is expected to increase under future scenarios of climate change, especially in areas corresponding to the arc of deforestation in eastern Amazonia. The increase of human-related disturbances in this biome, as well as changes in the relationship of El. nigritaEx. smaragdina and El. nigrita-A. caerulea may explain the potential range increase of El. nigrita under future scenarios of climate change.
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