Modelagem e avaliação de fenômenos relacionados ao uso da terra no Brasil

Faria, Weslem Rodrigues

doi:10.11606/t.12.2012.tde-20022013-160537

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(46 reference statements)

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“…is a shift variable with an initial value equal to 1. The sensitivity parameter, , represents the elasticity of land supply and was calculated according to Van Meijl et al 2006and Farias (2012). The elasticity of land supply with respect to land price changes should reflect the notion that greater land availability is related to higher values of elasticity.…”

Section: Chart 1 -Transition Matrix For Two Regions Used In the Regiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Controlling deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Regional economic impacts and land-use change

Carvalho¹,

Domingues²,

Horridge

2017

Land Use Policy

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Brazil confirmed targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in 2008, including an 80% reduction in deforestation in the Amazon by 2020. With this in mind, we investigated the trade-off between environmental conservation and economic growth in the Amazon. The aim of this study is to project the economic losses and land-use changes resulting from a policy to control deforestation and the rise in land productivity that is necessary to offset those losses. We developed a Dynamic Interregional Computable General Equilibrium Model for 30 Amazon regions with a land module allowing conversion between types of land. The results have shown that the most affected regions would be soybeans and cattle producers as well as regions dominated by family farms. To offset these impacts, it was estimated that an annual gain of land productivity of approximately 1.4% would be required.

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Section: Chart 1 -Transition Matrix For Two Regions Used In the Regiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Controlling deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Regional economic impacts and land-use change

Carvalho¹,

Domingues²,

Horridge

2017

Land Use Policy

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“…O parâmetro de sensibilidade, , representa a elasticidade da oferta de terra e foi calculado de acordo com a metodologia utilizada em Van Meijl Farias (2012). A elasticidade da oferta de terra com relação aos retornos da terra deve refletir que, quanto maior a disponibilidade de terra, maior deve ser o valor dessa elasticidade.…”

Section: O Modelo Ilucunclassified

Projeção de um cenário econômico e de desmatamento para a Amazônia Legal brasileira entre 2006 e 2030

Carvalho

Domingues²

2016

Nova econ.

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Resumo: A Amazônia Legal foi alvo de políticas desenvolvimentistas no século XX. Com características estruturais diferentes das do restante do Brasil e abrigando a maior floresta tropical do mundo, o resultado foi crescimento econômico e desmatamento. Alguns fatores são apontados como determinantes desse desmatamento, como as políticas de incentivo ao desenvolvimento das décadas de 1970 e 1980, os investimentos em infraestrutura, a pecuária e a agricultura.Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia de projeção para o desmatamento nas mesorregiões da Amazônia Legal, decorrente de fatores econômicos e de condicionantes estruturais da região. Para isso, foi usado um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (EGC) dinâmico inter-regional comum a especificação para a ocupação do solo nas regiões, isto é,uma inovação para a literatura.Os resultados para o período estudado(2006-2030) apontaram que as regiões com maior crescimento e desmatamento seriam aquelas situadas no arco do desmatamento(Mato Grosso, Pará e Rondônia), principalmente regiões produtoras de soja e bovinos.

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“…Additionally, Montenegro & Ragab (2010, 2012 found negative and positive precipitation trends for river basins in Northeastern Brazil, depending on the GCM used. Schaeffer et al RBCIAMB | n.36 | jun 2015 | 96-114 (2008) simulated a reduction of hydropower generation of 4.3% and 7.7% for the São Francisco river basin for two climate scenarios (A2 and B2) for the years 2071-2100 based on runs of the GCM Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Montenegro & Ragab (2012) emphasize that future climate and land-use changes call for new water resources management and mitigation strategies. Furthermore, studies indicate that climate change will result in reduction of the national real gross domestic products (GDPs), which can adversely affect agricultural production (FARIA, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios of climate and land-use change,water demand and water availability for the São Francisco River basin

Koch¹,

Biewald²,

Liersch³

et al. 2015

Rev. Bras. Ciênc. Ambient. (Online)

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In this study, scenarios of changes in land-use patterns, agricultural production and climate, and their effects on water demand and availability in the São Francisco river basin (Brazil) are analysed. The global driver population growth, economic development, and trade liberalization are included. Using the regionalized version of a global agro-economic land-and water use model, impacts are analysed for two scenarios: a regionalized world with slow economic development, high population growth, and little awareness of environmental problems (A2), and a globalized world with low population growth, high gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and environmental sustainability (B1). A regional ecohydrological model is used to analyse the effect of these scenarios on water demand and availability. The climate scenarios in general show a wetter future (years 2021 -2050), with wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons. The water availability for irrigated agriculture is high, while hydropower generation is declining by 3.2% (A2) and 1.7% (B1) compared to the reference.

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Modelagem e avaliação de fenômenos relacionados ao uso da terra no Brasil

Cited by 4 publications

References 42 publications

Controlling deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Regional economic impacts and land-use change

Controlling deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Regional economic impacts and land-use change

Projeção de um cenário econômico e de desmatamento para a Amazônia Legal brasileira entre 2006 e 2030

Scenarios of climate and land-use change,water demand and water availability for the São Francisco River basin

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