This paper aims to evaluate sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in twelve large-scale river basins worldwide, considering the mean flow and the two runoff quantiles Q 10 (high flow), and Q 90 (low flow). First, changes in annual low flow, annual high flow and mean annual runoff were evaluated using simulation results from a multi-hydrological-model (nine hydrological models, HMs) and a multi-scenario approach

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Measurements of aboveground biomass and nitrogen (N) nutrition were made during July 1993 in 50-, 130-, and 380-year-old stands of Larixgmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. in eastern Siberia. Constituting six forest types based on understorey plants, the stands were representative of vegetation throughout the Yakutsk region. Average tree height, diameter, and density ranged from 2 m, 23 mm, and 50 800 stems/ha in the 50-year-old stand to 11 m, 160 mm, and 600 stems/ha in the oldest stand. Aboveground biomass in the 50-year-old stand was 4.4 kg•m−2, and the aboveground N pool was 1.1 mol•m−2. This was slightly higher than the N pool in a 125-year-old stand with a Ledum understorey (1.0 mol•m−2), despite its higher biomass (7.2 kg•m−2). The highest observed aboveground biomass in a 125-year-old stand (characterized by the N2-fixing understorey plant Alnasterfruticosa) reached 12.0 kg•m−2, but the corresponding N pool was only 1.6 mol•m−2. In the oldest stand, aboveground biomass was 8.9 kg•m−2 and the N pool was 1.1 mol•m−2. There was thus a relatively constant quantity of N in the aboveground biomass of stands differing in age by almost 400 years. We postulate that N sets a limit on carbon accumulation in this boreal forest type. Trees were extremely slow growing, and there was essentially no aboveground biomass accumulation between the ages of 130 and 380 years because of a lack of available N. This conclusion was supported by graphical analysis indicating that the self-thinning process in our stands was not governed by the availability of radiation according to allometric theory. Much of the available N was used in the production of tree stems where 86% of the aboveground N (and 96% of aboveground biomass) was immobilized in the oldest stand. N in wood of the old stand exceeded the N pool in the litter layer and was 20% of the N pool in the Ah horizon. The processes of carbon and N partitioning were further explored by the estimation of carbon and N fluxes during three periods of forest development. We calculated a loss of ecosystem N during the period of self-thinning, while in the mature stands the N cycle appeared to be very tight. The immobilized N is returned from the wood into a plant-available form only by a recurrent fire cycle, which regenerates the N cycle. Thus fire is an essential component for the persistence of the L. gmelinii forest.

Abstract. This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data. For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach.

West African countries' energy and climate policies show a pronounced focus on decarbonising power supply through renewable electricity (RE) generation. In particular, most West African states explicitly focus on hybrid mixes of variable renewable power sources-solar, wind and hydropower-in their targets for the electricity sector. Hydropower, the main current RE resource in West Africa, is strongly sensitive to monsoon rainfall variability, which has led to power crises in the past. Therefore, solar and wind power could play a stronger role in the future as countries move to power systems with high shares of RE. Considering the policy focus on diversified RE portfolios, there is a strong need to provide climate services for assessing how these resources could function together in a power mix. In this study, climate data from the state-of-the-art ERA5 reanalysis is used to assess the synergies of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power potential in West Africa at hourly resolution. A new metric, the stability coefficientC stab , is developed to quantify the synergies of solar PV and wind power for achieving a balanced power output and limiting storage needs. Using this metric, it is demonstrated that there is potential for exploiting hybrid solar/wind power in a larger area of West Africa, covering more important centers of population and closer to existing grid structures, than would be suggested by average maps of solar and wind resource availability or capacity factor for the region. The results of this study highlight why multi-scale temporal synergies of power mixes should be considered in RE system planning from the start.

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The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients and erosion. It was developed for impact assessment at the river basin scale. SWIM is coupled to GIS and has modest data requirements.During the last decade SWIM was extensively tested in mesoscale and large catchments for hydrological processes (discharge, groundwater), nutrients, extreme events (floods and low flows), crop yield and erosion. Several modules were developed further (wetlands and snow dynamics) or introduced (glaciers, reservoirs). After validation, SWIM can be applied for impact assessment. Four exemplary studies are presented here, and several questions important to the impact modelling community are discussed. For which processes and areas can the model be used? Where are the limits in model application? How to apply the model in data-poor situations or in ungauged basins? How to use the model in basins subject to strong anthropogenic pressure? Titre : Modélisation des impacts des changements climatiques et d'occupation des sols avec SWIM : enseignements tirés d'applications multiples Le modèle intégré eau et sol (Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) est un modèle écohydrologique semi-distribué continu, intégrant les processus hydrologiques, la végétation, les nutriments et l'érosion.Il a été développé pour l'évaluation d'impacts à l'échelle du bassin versant. SWIM est couplé à un SIG et a des besoins modestes en données. Au cours de la dernière décennie, SWIM a été largement testé sur des bassins de tailles intermédiaires et grandes, au niveau des processus hydrologiques (débit, eau souterraine, évapotranspiration), de la dynamique des nutriments, des événements extrêmes (crue et étiage), du rendement des cultures, et de l'érosion. Plusieurs modules ont été développés de manière plus approfondie (zones humides et dynamique de la neige) ou introduits (glaciers, réservoirs). Après validation, SWIM peut être appliqué pour des évaluations d'impacts. Nous présentons ici quatre exemples d'études, discutons de plusieurs questions importantes pour les modélisateurs s'intéressant aux impacts. Pour quels processus et surfaces le modèle peut-il être utilisé ? Comment appliquer le modèle dans des situations de faible disponibilité en données ou sur des bassins non jaugés ? Comment utiliser le modèle dans des bassins sujets à de fortes pressions d'origine humaine ?Mots clé : Modèle écohydrologique, bassin versant, impact des changements climatiques, impact des changements d'occupation des sols, calage et validation, modèle orienté processus 1. Introduction: process-based models for river basins as tools for impact assessment