Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins

Vetter, Tobias; Reinhardt, Julia; Flörke, Martina; Griensven, Ann van; Hattermann, Fred F.; Huang, Shaochun; Koch, Hagen; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Plötner, Stefan; Seidou, Ousmane; Su, Buda; Vervoort, W.; Krysanova, Valentina

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1794-y

Cited by 221 publications

(144 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Additionally, the current study simulated the hydrological variables via a single hydrological model, and a study conducted by Vetter et al . () noted that the uncertainty arising from the multiple hydrological models was relatively less. In contrast, Bastola et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the cascade of GCM and downscaling uncertainties in hydro‐climatic projections over India

Sharma

Hari

Chhabra

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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India is a major agrarian country strongly impacted by spatio‐temporal variations in the Indian monsoon. The impact assessment is usually accomplished by implementing projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Unfortunately, these projections cannot capture the dynamicity of the monsoon and require either statistical (SD) or dynamical (DD) downscaling of the GCM projections to a finer resolution. Both downscaling techniques can capture the spatio‐temporal variation in climatic variables but are marred by uncertainty in the projections resulting from the choice of the GCM and downscaling method, which affects climate change adaptations. Here, we assessed uncertainties in the projections of hydro‐climatic variables over India by considering multiple downscaling techniques, multiple GCMs, and their combined effects (referred as the total uncertainty). Multiple hydrological variables were simulated by implementing the variable infiltration capacity model that considered outputs from DD (derived by the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment, CORDEX) and SD forced with multiple GCM simulations. Our results showed that the SD projections captured the observed spatio‐temporal variability of hydro‐climatic variables more efficiently than the DD projections. Importantly, contribution from the downscaled projections to the total uncertainty was significantly smaller compared to the inter‐GCM uncertainty. We believe uncertainty analysis is an important component of good scientific practice; however, several researchers appear to be rather reluctant to embrace the concept of uncertainty in making projections, predictions, and forecasting. It remains a common practice to show climate change exercises to decision‐makers/stakeholders, without uncertainty bounds. Here, a successful attempt was made to identify the key sources of uncertainty and adequately bracket the uncertainty, indicating a requirement of the code of practice to provide formal guidance, particularly for climate‐change impact assessments. This consequently emphasized the importance of follow‐up research to understand the inter‐GCM uncertainty, which has a significant impact on sustainable agriculture and water resources management in India.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the cascade of GCM and downscaling uncertainties in hydro‐climatic projections over India

Sharma

Hari

Chhabra

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…We used only one hydrological model, which is also a source of uncertainty. However, variation in climate signals between GCMs and emissions scenarios, particularly precipitation projections, may be a larger source of uncertainty than the choice of hydrology model (Thompson et al, 2014;Vetter et al, 2016).…”

Section: Sources Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

Aloysius

Saiers

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [−9 %; 20 %] (mean -min and max -across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7 % [−12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

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“…Several previous modeling studies have evaluated water, food, energy, and environmental issues in the Niger River Basin. Several models focused on the Upper Niger Basin (Angelina et al, 2015;Eisner et al, 2017;Liersch et al, 2013;Neal et al, 2012;Passchier et al, 2005;Picouet et al, 2001;Vetter et al, 2017), while others covered the entire basin (Aich et al, 2014;BRLi and DHI, 2007;Dezetter et al, 2008;Li et al, 2005;Pedinotti et al, 2012;Schuol et al, 2008;Sheffield et al, 2014;Sogreah, 1985). These modeling studies provide valuable assessments of hydrological changes resulting from climatic variations and dam development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Sustainability of Water Availability for the Water‐Food‐Energy‐Ecosystem Nexus in the Niger River Basin

Yang

Khan

et al. 2018

Earth's Future

Self Cite

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Water, food, energy, and the ecosystems they depend on interact with each other in highly complex and interlinked ways. These interdependencies can be traced particularly well in the context of a river basin, which is delineated by hydrological boundaries. The interactions are shaped by humans interacting with nature, and as such, a river basin can be characterized as a complex, coupled socioecological system. The Niger River Basin in West Africa is such a system, where water infrastructure development to meet growing water, food, and energy demands may threaten a productive and vulnerable basin ecosystem. These dynamic interactions remain poorly understood. Trade‐off analyses between different sectors and at different spatial scales are needed to support solution‐oriented policy analysis, particularly in transboundary basins. This study assesses the impact of climate and human/anthropogenic changes on the water, energy, food, and ecosystem sectors and characterizes the resulting trade‐offs through a set of generic metrics related to the sustainability of water availability. Results suggest that dam development can mitigate negative impacts from climate change on hydropower generation and also on ecosystem health to some extent.

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Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins

Cited by 221 publications

References 36 publications

Understanding the cascade of GCM and downscaling uncertainties in hydro‐climatic projections over India

Understanding the cascade of GCM and downscaling uncertainties in hydro‐climatic projections over India

Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

Quantifying the Sustainability of Water Availability for the Water‐Food‐Energy‐Ecosystem Nexus in the Niger River Basin

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