Methods of infrastructure management for optimization of grain transport organization

Lomotko, Denis; Arsenko, Danil; Коновалова, О Е; Ischuka, Oksana

doi:10.1016/j.procs.2019.01.168

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…It contributes to the termination of existing and lack of commercial interest in new contracts for the supply of grain products to the European Union (EU) and other countries (Garbelini et al, 2022). Compounding the trend is the forced transportation of crops by rail through congested land border crossings, which has resulted in longer delivery times and more complicated grain logistics (Lomotko et al, 2019). To reduce the level of uncertainty in the grain market, a necessity emerged to forecast trends and developments in the market.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The quality of the obtained regression model is suggested by identifying the hypothesis of equality of zero coefficient of determination of data by Fisher's F-criterion using well-known methods (Lomotko et al, 2019;Silva et al, 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors demonstrate that their model is sufficiently reliable and can be used for demand forecasting, both for the industry in general, for individual farms, retail outlets, supply chains and transport, and inventory management purposes. But the Holt-Winters model used is well-established in agricultural and food production research due to its prevalence and relative simplicity of construction, and, as calculations have demonstrated, sufficient predictive validity (Lomotko et al, 2019).…”

Section: ṩ/Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis the capacity of grain export potential in Ukraine, possible reasons for the decrease and development trends

Gafarov¹,

Ibrahimov²,

Huseynov³

2022

Scientific Horizons

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The research presents an analysis of grain production and export capacity in Ukraine from 2010-2021. The major general factors that have recently affected the country's macroeconomic indicators and determined their potential for the decline have been destroyed and damaged infrastructure, a high level of military threat to crops, and massive internal and external migration of working-age people and businesses. Therefore, analysis of the availability and regularity of changes in the production reserve of these crops for domestic farm use and external consumers defines the relevance of the issue under study. The purpose of the study is to analyse the main indicators of grain crop production in Ukraine and to identify the factors that significantly influence their export potential. Using technical statistical methods, models have been developed to demonstrate possible fluctuations in the number of grain exports, considering the possible development of the country's economy. Using regression methods, the main factors influencing the export potential of grains were identified. These factors have been demonstrated to include, in particular, gross harvest volumes, availability and quantities of mineral and organic fertilisers, purchasing prices for produce, etc. A sustained long-term trend in grain exports over the past 10 years is demonstrated, but it has been established that Ukraine's significant export potential could change significantly. It could affect the economies of Ukraine's grain-importing countries. It is suggested that the adverse impact of the possible causes of Ukraine's declining export potential should be reduced through further development of technologies for growing, storing and transporting grain crops. The applied value of the results is to reduce uncertainty in the agricultural market for agro-industrial and foreign trade institutions by accounting for the impact of major grain production and export indicators

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: ṩ/Tmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Analysis the capacity of grain export potential in Ukraine, possible reasons for the decrease and development trends

Gafarov¹,

Ibrahimov²,

Huseynov³

2022

Scientific Horizons

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…An automated traffic capacity calculation system for freight flows of bulk cargoes was proposed in (Panchenko et al, 2016). Paper (Lomotko et al, 2019) deals with the relationships between the participants of the grain transportation process and the balance between their interests based on the system of different criteria. Efficiency scores of world ports per cargo type (containers, oil, coal, iron ore, and grain) were calculated and analyzed in (Merk et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introduction and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multicriteria Approach to Determining the Optimal Composition of Technical Means in the Design of Sea Grain Terminals

et al. 2022

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The main aim of the article is to develop technique for determining the optimal equipment of a sea grain terminal with technical means at the stage of its design. In many works, in order to study the performance of transport systems operating under conditions when the loading level is subject to random fluctuations, the queuing theory methods and random processes are used. However, in a number of cases this approach does not allow to take into account all specifics of the processes that significantly affect sea terminals performance. Also, most of the available studies aim at enhancing a certain single key performance indicator (it can be total costs, performance, income, etc.) to its maximum, provided that the other indicators are within the permissible range of values. However, in many cases, there are more than one key performance indicator which need to be improved. Since the queuing theory and single criterion optimization methods did not allow to achieve the desired results, to study the problem, a technique was introduced based on the combination of simulation modelling and multicriteria optimization methods, which allows us to take into account all the main features of operations at grain terminals. To assess the terminal economic efficiency, the Equivalent Annual Cost indicator was used. The relationship between the cargo unit transshipment cost and the average processing time of consignments is analyzed, provided that the cargo flow intensity is subject to random fluctuations. Using this relationship, a technique for determining the optimal composition of grain terminal equipment was introduced, based upon the multicriteria optimization and simulation modelling methods. The developed technique makes it possible to determine the qualitative and quantitative choice of equipment for a sea grain terminal, taking into account both the cargo transshipment cost and the processing time of consignments. The studies have shown that, with an appropriate choice of the terminal equipment, it is possible to significantly reduce the time of cargo handling due to only a slight increase in the cargo unit transshipment cost.

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Influence of Existing Operational Conditions on Compliance with Car Handling Standards

Kyrychenko

Strelko

Berdnychenko

2021

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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Influence of existing conditions of operational work on terms of delivery of cargoes and observance of car turnover standards is investigated. Presence of considerable discrepancies between planned (standard) and actual indicators of car turnover periods and terms of cargo deliveries is accepted as the evidence of discrepancy of the accepted rationing system with the processes, which actually occur in system of railway cargo transportation of Ukraine. The basic principles of construction of the rationing system of railway cargo transportations, adequate to the actual state of the railway, are offered. The possibility of constructing such a rationing system is demonstrated on the example of data of the Ukrzaliznytsia information system about the time of cars’ turnover, which are to be unloaded at port stations with subsequent loading on the railways. It is shown that the requirements for the adequacy, ability to locate the problem link, adaptability, stability and safety of the rationing system are met by the use of ordinal statistics of the respective transport subsystem.

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Methods of infrastructure management for optimization of grain transport organization

Cited by 5 publications

References 6 publications

Analysis the capacity of grain export potential in Ukraine, possible reasons for the decrease and development trends

Analysis the capacity of grain export potential in Ukraine, possible reasons for the decrease and development trends

Multicriteria Approach to Determining the Optimal Composition of Technical Means in the Design of Sea Grain Terminals

Influence of Existing Operational Conditions on Compliance with Car Handling Standards

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