Abstract:Almost all elements of the periodic table are used in modern technology, especially for renewable energy and communication technologies. Graedel et al. assessed the
AbstractMany new and efficient technologies require 'critical metals' to function. These metals are often extracted as by-product of another metal, and their future supply is therefore dependent on mining developments of the host metal. Supply of critical metals can also be constrained because of political instability, discouraging mining policies,… Show more
“…; Teske et al. ; Tisserant and Pauliuk ). A long‐term interest in resource‐related issues is slowly growing, as is the insight in the developments and dynamics around resource supply, especially related to metals.…”
SummaryIn this paper, we develop a method to assess the environmental impacts of metal scenarios. The method is life cycle based, but enables forward looking and upscaling. The method aims at translating metal demand scenarios into technology-specific supply scenarios, necessary to make the translation into environmental impacts. To illustrate the different steps of the methodology, we apply it to the case of seven major metals. Demand scenarios for seven major metals are taken from literature. We translate those into technology-specific supply scenarios, and future time series of environmental impacts are specified including recycling rates, energy system transformation, efficiency improvement, and ore grade decline. We show that the method is applicable and may lead to relevant and, despite many uncertainties, fairly robust results. The projections show that the environmental impacts related to metal production are expected to increase steeply. Iron is responsible for the majority of impacts and emissions are relatively unaffected by changes in the production and energy system. For the other metals, the energy transition may have substantial benefits. By far, the most effective option for all metals appears to be to increase the share of secondary production. This would reduce emissions, but is expected to become effective only in the second half of the twenty-first century. The circular economy agenda for metals is therefore a long-term agenda, similar to climate change: Action must be taken soon while benefits will become apparent only at the long term.
“…; Teske et al. ; Tisserant and Pauliuk ). A long‐term interest in resource‐related issues is slowly growing, as is the insight in the developments and dynamics around resource supply, especially related to metals.…”
SummaryIn this paper, we develop a method to assess the environmental impacts of metal scenarios. The method is life cycle based, but enables forward looking and upscaling. The method aims at translating metal demand scenarios into technology-specific supply scenarios, necessary to make the translation into environmental impacts. To illustrate the different steps of the methodology, we apply it to the case of seven major metals. Demand scenarios for seven major metals are taken from literature. We translate those into technology-specific supply scenarios, and future time series of environmental impacts are specified including recycling rates, energy system transformation, efficiency improvement, and ore grade decline. We show that the method is applicable and may lead to relevant and, despite many uncertainties, fairly robust results. The projections show that the environmental impacts related to metal production are expected to increase steeply. Iron is responsible for the majority of impacts and emissions are relatively unaffected by changes in the production and energy system. For the other metals, the energy transition may have substantial benefits. By far, the most effective option for all metals appears to be to increase the share of secondary production. This would reduce emissions, but is expected to become effective only in the second half of the twenty-first century. The circular economy agenda for metals is therefore a long-term agenda, similar to climate change: Action must be taken soon while benefits will become apparent only at the long term.
“…Together, population growth, economic development, and the accelerating pace of technological innovation are driving the demand for natural resources to unprecedented levels. This is especially the case for nonfuel mineral commodities that are increasingly used in emerging and low-carbon technologies, including cobalt in rechargeable batteries (1), tellurium in certain thin-film solar photovoltaics (2), and rare earth elements in permanent magnets (3). It is these and other mineral commodities that will be required in greater quantities to fulfill the needs and desires of an increasingly affluent, growing global population (4).…”
Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007-2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.
“…This inversion of the results for cobalt is due mainly to the cobalt supplied as a byproduct of copper ore. As copper-mining countries are today dispersed, the low market concentration for this metal contributes to a reduced risk at the mining stage. At present, however, not all the cobalt accompanying copper ore is necessarily used globally, and cobalt ore also plays a significant role as a primary source of cobalt (Tisserant and Pauliuk, 2016). Because the suppliers of cobalt ore are less diverse than the countries mining copper ore, the market concentration for cobalt processed materials is higher, leading to a higher risk than for the mining stage.…”
This study seeks to understand the role of primary processing, i.e. the first post-mining stage, in supply risk, by means of a case study on three critical metals (neodymium, cobalt, and platinum) in the context of Japan. Applying the 'footprint' concept with a multiregional input-output model, we have quantified the direct and indirect vulnerability of the Japanese economy to such risks. Considering the supply risks associated with primary processors, we find that Japanese final consumers are exposed to relatively higher supply risks for neodymium as compared with cobalt and platinum. Our study shows that the primary processing stage of a metal's supply chain may contribute significantly to the overall supply risks, suggesting that this stage should be taken into due account in understanding and mitigating supply-chain vulnerability through, e.g. supplier diversification and alternative material development.
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