Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007-2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.

SignificanceExpanding demand for nonfuel minerals that enable pivotal technologies has elevated concerns regarding supply security, especially for nations that are highly import reliant. Although import reliance has become a prominent concern, few studies assess import reliance and none compare import reliance of countries concurrently. Doing so provides insights into resource interdependency and competition potential. Here, we compare the net import reliance of 42 minerals for the two largest national economies, China and the United States. We find that China relies on imports for over half of its consumption for 19 minerals, compared with 24 for the United States—11 of which are common to both. It is for these 11 minerals that competition between the United States and China may become the most contentious.

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