Environmental Implications of Future Demand Scenarios for Metals: Methodology and Application to the Case of Seven Major Metals

Voet, Ester van der; Oers, Lauran van; Verboon, Miranda; Kuipers, Koen

doi:10.1111/jiec.12722

Cited by 126 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Given the projected increase in Chinese copper demand through to 2050, we can only conclude that a major quantity of raw materials will need to be mined and processed, which will have a pronounced environmental impact, particularly in light of the challenges involved in improving the environmental footprint of copper production and processing. As demand continues to rise, copper will become even more important as a source of greenhouse gas emissions than it is at present (Van der Voet, Van Oers, Verboon, & Kuipers, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business‐as‐usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis

Dong

Tukker

Voet

2019

J of Industrial Ecology

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In this paper, we develop a dynamic stock model and scenario analysis involving a bottom‐up approach to analyze copper demand in China from 2005 to 2050 based on government and related sectoral policies. The results show that in the short‐term, China's copper industry cannot achieve a completely circular economy without additional measures. Aggregate and per capita copper demand are both set to increase substantially, especially in infrastructure, transportation, and buildings. Between 2016 and 2050, total copper demand will increase almost threefold. Copper use in buildings will stabilize before 2050, but the copper stock in infrastructure and transportation will not yet have reached saturation in 2050. The continuous growth of copper stock implies that secondary copper will be able to cover just over 50% of demand in 2050, at best, even with an assumed recycling rate of 90%. Finally, future copper demand depends largely on the lifetime of applications. There is therefore an urgent need to prolong the service life of end‐use products to reduce the amount of materials used, especially in large‐scale applications in buildings and infrastructure.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business‐as‐usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis

Dong

Tukker

Voet

2019

J of Industrial Ecology

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“…Gibbon et al [95] propose an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model in order to forecast the environmental impacts of emerging technologies ex-ante by using climate mitigation scenarios. Van der Voet et al [96] environmentally assess different metal demand scenarios. The outcome of this model can be introduced in prospective LCAs in order to cover datasets for metal production in the future.…”

Section: Scalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to Conduct Prospective Life Cycle Assessment for Emerging Technologies? A Systematic Review and Methodological Guidance

2020

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Emerging technologies are expected to contribute to environmental sustainable development. However, throughout the development of novel technologies, it is unknown whether emerging technologies can lead to reduced environmental impacts compared to a potentially displaced mature technology. Additionally, process steps suspected to be environmental hotspots can be improved by process engineers early in the development of the emerging technology. In order to determine the environmental impacts of emerging technologies at an early stage of development, prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) should be performed. However, consistency in prospective LCA methodology is lacking. Therefore, this article develops a framework for a prospective LCA in order to overcome the methodological inconsistencies regarding prospective LCAs. The methodological framework was developed using literature on prospective LCAs of emerging technologies, and therefore, a literature review on prospective LCAs was conducted. We found 44 case studies, four review papers, and 17 papers on methodological guidance. Three main challenges for conducting prospective LCAs are identified: Comparability, data, and uncertainty challenges. The issues in defining the aim, functionality, and system boundaries of the prospective LCAs, as well as problems with specifying LCIA methodologies, comprise the comparability challenge. Data availability, quality, and scaling are issues within the data challenge. Finally, uncertainty exists as an overarching challenge when applying a prospective LCA. These three challenges are especially crucial for the prospective assessment of emerging technologies. However, this review also shows that within the methodological papers and case studies, several approaches exist to tackle these challenges. These approaches were systematically summarized within a framework to give guidance on how to overcome the issues when conducting prospective LCAs of emerging technologies. Accordingly, this framework is useful for LCA practitioners who are analyzing early-stage technologies. Nevertheless, further research is needed to develop appropriate scale-up schemes and to include uncertainty analyses for a more in-depth interpretation of results.

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“…plus 200 GJ to produce 1 kg of platinum (see Section 4.3). Hopefully, the secondary production of PGM can significantly minimize the environmental impact-that is, regarding emission reduction and energy savings-of the overall PGM supply, especially when state-of-the-art technologies from European refining centers are used (Van der Voet et al, 2018;Hagelüken et al, 2016). In fact, it has been estimated in average that the use of secondary platinum from end-of-life CC could divide by 20 the environmental cost (see Section 4.3).…”

Section: Environmental and Economic Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Closing the loop on platinum from catalytic converters: Contributions from material flow analysis and circularity indicators

Saidani

Kendall

Yannou

et al. 2019

J of Industrial Ecology

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In this study, material flow analysis (MFA) is applied to quantify and reduce the obstacles for advancing a circular economy (CE) of platinum (Pt) from catalytic converters (CC) in Europe. First, the value chain and related stakeholders are mapped out in an MFA‐like model to both facilitate the assessment of stocks and flows, and get a comprehensive view of potential action levers and resources to close‐the‐loop. Then, through the cross analysis of numerous data sources, two MFA are completed: (i) one general MFA, and (ii) one sector‐specific MFA, drawing a distinction between the fate of Pt from (a) light‐duty vehicles, under the European Union's End of Life Vehicle Directive 2000/EC/53, and (b) heavy‐duty and off‐road vehicles. Key findings reveal a leakage of around 15 tons of Pt outside the European market in 2017. Although approximately one quarter of the losses are due to in‐use dissipation, 65% are attributed to insufficient collection and unregulated exports. Comparing the environmental impact between primary and secondary production, it has been estimated that halving the leakage of Pt during usage and collection could prevent the energetic consumption of 1.3 × 103 TJ and the greenhouse gases emission of 2.5 × 102 kt CO2 eq. Through the lens of circularity indicators, activating appropriate action levers to enhance the CE performance of Pt in Europe is of utmost importance in order to secure future production of new generations of CC and fuel cells. Moreover, the growing stockpile of Pt from CC in use indicates the need for better collection mechanisms. Also, the CC attrition during use and associated Pt emissions in the environment appears non‐negligible. Based on the scarce and dated publications in this regard, we encourage further research for a sound understanding of this phenomenon that can negatively impact human health.

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Environmental Implications of Future Demand Scenarios for Metals: Methodology and Application to the Case of Seven Major Metals

Cited by 126 publications

References 31 publications

Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business‐as‐usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis

Modeling copper demand in China up to 2050: A business‐as‐usual scenario based on dynamic stock and flow analysis

How to Conduct Prospective Life Cycle Assessment for Emerging Technologies? A Systematic Review and Methodological Guidance

Closing the loop on platinum from catalytic converters: Contributions from material flow analysis and circularity indicators

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