Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Alexander, Jake M.; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I.; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith L.; Milbau, Ann; Núñez, Martín A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Pellissier, Loïc

doi:10.1111/gcb.13976

Cited by 297 publications

(289 citation statements)

References 129 publications

(242 reference statements)

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“…Supporting Information Table S1). Yet, our results corroborate the findings of Chen, Hill, Ohlemüller, et al () and other studies (Alexander et al, ) in that species’ responses at leading edges are lagging behind expectations based on temperature trends but the situation at rear edges is less clear. In addition, the finding that lag distances of shifts at both range limits were higher at localities with stronger warming also suggests that the velocity of climate change is faster than species are able to follow (Loarie et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Elevational rear edges shifted at least as much as leading edges over the last century

Rumpf

Hülber

Zimmermann

et al. 2018

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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Aim Range shifts along elevational gradients are considered a major response of mountain species to climate change. However, empirical studies have so far mainly focused on leading edges or on species’ optima, and evidence of rear edge shifts remains scarce. Yet, the balance between leading and rear edge shifts has important consequences for conservation and co‐determines species’ extinction risk. Here, we present a comparative synthesis of range dynamics observed at both range limits. Location Global. Time period 1850–present. Major taxa studied Plants, invertebrates, vertebrates. Methods From the literature, we compiled elevational leading and rear edge shifts of 1,026 species observed at the same localities over the same time period. We used linear mixed‐effects models to analyse whether both range limits shifted upslope, whether leading edges shifted faster than rear edges and elevational range sizes have thus changed, whether observed shifts were linked to temperature changes, and whether shifts lagged behind temperature changes. Results Despite pronounced species‐specific variation, both range limits shifted upslope on average. Rates of shift did not differ between rear and leading edges, elevational range sizes thus did not change. Regional differences in temperature trends were only related to dynamics at rear edges. Yet, the stronger climate warmed regionally, the more species’ responses lagged behind expectations at both range limits. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that extinctions at rear edges of mountain species have at least been as common as colonizations at leading edges. The drivers of observed range limit shifts are not deducible from our data, but weak relationships with temperature trends suggest that other factors than climate warming played an additional role. These results do not relax concerns about possible detrimental effects of environmental change on mountain biodiversity and point to the importance of refocusing monitoring towards a better representation of rear edge dynamics.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Elevational rear edges shifted at least as much as leading edges over the last century

Rumpf

Hülber

Zimmermann

et al. 2018

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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“…Many species have shifted their distributions in response to recent anthropogenic‐driven environmental changes such as climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation. These shifts are generally towards the poles or upward in elevation and are reported for a wide range of taxa (Alexander et al., ; Parmesan & Yohe, ). However, recent studies suggest that many species are not shifting fast enough to keep pace with future rapid climatic change and thus become vulnerable to range contractions and population declines (Miller & McGill, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes

Wang

Thompson

et al. 2019

Journal of Ecology

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Tree harvest and climate change can interact to have synergistic effects on tree species distribution changes. However, few studies have investigated the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on tree species distributions. We assessed the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on the distribution of 29 dominant tree species at 270 m resolution in the southern United States, while accounting for species demography, competition, urban growth and natural fire. We simulated tree species distribution changes to year 2100 using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO), ecosystem process model (LINKAGES) and urban growth model (SLEUTH). The distributions of 20 tree species contracted and nine species expanded within the region under climate change by end of 21st century. Distribution changes for all tree species were very slow and lagged behind the changes in potential distributions that were in equilibrium with new climatic conditions. Tree harvest and climate change interacted to affect species occurrences and colonization but not extinction. Occurrence and colonization were mainly affected by tree harvest and its interaction with climate change while extinctions were mainly affected by tree harvest and climate change. Synthesis and applications. Interactive effects of climate and tree harvest acted in the same direction as climate change effects on species occurrences, thereby accelerating climate change induced contraction or expansion of distributions. The overall interactive effects on species colonization were negative, specifically with positive interactive effects at leading edges of species ranges and negative interactive effects at trailing edges. Tree harvest generally did not interact with climate change to greatly facilitate or ameliorate species extinction. Our modelling results highlight the importance of considering disturbances and species demography (e.g. post‐harvest regeneration dynamics) when predicting changes in tree distributions.

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“…Additionally, mountains with a substantial elevation range offer short‐distance corridors for the migration of species at a vertical gradient, and these species can recolonize when the temperature becomes more suitable again (Qiu, Fu, & Comes, ). Currently, the MSWC is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, which is much higher than the global average warming trend over the past half‐century, posing a severe challenge to the survival of mountain plant communities (Alexander et al, ; Shi et al, ). Given the potential risks faced by species in the MSWC, it is necessary to simulate the distribution dynamics caused by ACC in advance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

Liao

Zhang

Nobis

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that is Abies recurvata, Abies faxoniana, Abies squamata, Abies ernestii, Abies forrestii and Abies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions. Location The mountains of Southwest China. Methods We applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios). Results The simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas of Abies recurvata were projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC. Main conclusions Benefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future.

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Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Cited by 297 publications

References 129 publications

Elevational rear edges shifted at least as much as leading edges over the last century

Elevational rear edges shifted at least as much as leading edges over the last century

Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes

Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

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