Studying the pattern of species richness is crucial in understanding the diversity and distribution of organisms in the earth. Climate and human influences are the major driving factors that directly influence the large‐scale distributions of plant species, including gymnosperms. Understanding how gymnosperms respond to climate, topography, and human‐induced changes is useful in predicting the impacts of global change. Here, we attempt to evaluate how climatic and human‐induced processes could affect the spatial richness patterns of gymnosperms in China. Initially, we divided a map of the country into grid cells of 50 × 50 km2 spatial resolution and plotted the geographical coordinate distribution occurrence of 236 native gymnosperm taxa. The gymnosperm taxa were separated into three response variables: (a) all species, (b) endemic species, and (c) nonendemic species, based on their distribution. The species richness patterns of these response variables to four predictor sets were also evaluated: (a) energy–water, (b) climatic seasonality, (c) habitat heterogeneity, and (d) human influences. We performed generalized linear models (GLMs) and variation partitioning analyses to determine the effect of predictors on spatial richness patterns. The results showed that the distribution pattern of species richness was highest in the southwestern mountainous area and Taiwan in China. We found a significant relationship between the predictor variable set and species richness pattern. Further, our findings provide evidence that climatic seasonality is the most important factor in explaining distinct fractions of variations in the species richness patterns of all studied response variables. Moreover, it was found that energy–water was the best predictor set to determine the richness pattern of all species and endemic species, while habitat heterogeneity has a better influence on nonendemic species. Therefore, we conclude that with the current climate fluctuations as a result of climate change and increasing human activities, gymnosperms might face a high risk of extinction.

Aim As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that is Abies recurvata, Abies faxoniana, Abies squamata, Abies ernestii, Abies forrestii and Abies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions. Location The mountains of Southwest China. Methods We applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios). Results The simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas of Abies recurvata were projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC. Main conclusions Benefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future.

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Understanding the relationships between species richness patterns and environment constitutes a key issue in biogeography and conservation strategies. To our knowledge, this is the first integrative study that incorporates soil and human-influence data into species richness modelling. Our aims were to (a) estimate the richness patterns of four conifers groups (all conifers species, endemics, threatened, and endemic-threatened species) in south-west China, (b) assess the relative importance of environmental predictors (energy, water, climate, topography, and soil) and the human-influence on the conifers richness patterns and (c) identify hotspot ecoregions, nature reserves, or important plant areas as priority conservation areas. Generalized linear models and hierarchical partitioning were used by correlating 8962 distributional records of 97 conifer species with different environmental drivers. Results indicated that central Sichuan, northern Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and the southern areas of the Hengduan mountains were identified as distinct centres of conifers richness in China. Topographic heterogeneity and soil fertility were the strongest drivers of conifer richness patterns, while climate, energy, water, and human drivers were contributed to a lower degree. The identified conifers’ important areas were mostly located outside of the existing nature reserves but inside the ecoregions. Our findings emphasize that incorporating soil data into spatial modelling provides great insights for the conservation of conifers species. We recommend conservationists to use soil variables and other environmental data to generate a comprehensive understanding of the key drivers underlying the patterns of conifer diversity and distribution.

The species richness–climate relationship is a significant concept in determining the richness patterns and predicting the cause of its distribution. The distribution range of species and climatic variables along elevation have been used in evaluating the elevational diversity gradients (EDG). However, the species richness of gymnosperms along elevation and its driving factors in large geographic areas are still unknown. Here, we aimed at evaluating the EDG of gymnosperms in the ecoregions of China. We divided the geographical region of China into 34 ecoregions and determine the richness pattern of gymnosperm taxa along elevation gradients. We demonstrated the richness patterns of the 237-gymnosperm (219 threatened, 112 endemic, 189 trees, and 48 shrubs) taxa, roughly distributed between 0 and 5,300 m (above sea level) in China. As possible determinants of richness patterns, annual mean temperature (TEMP), annual precipitation (PPT), potential evapotranspiration (PET), net primary productivity (SNPP), aridity index (AI), temperature seasonality (TS), and precipitation seasonality (PS) are the major predictor variables driving the EDG in plants. We used the species interpolation method to determine the species richness at each elevation band. To evaluate the richness pattern of gymnosperms in an ecoregion, generalized additive modeling and structural equation modeling were performed. The ecoregions in the southern part of China are rich in gymnosperm species, where three distinct richness patterns—(i) hump-shaped, (ii) monotonic increase, and (iii) monotonic decline—were noticed in China. All climatic variables have a significant effect on the richness pattern of gymnosperms; however, TEMP, SNPP, TS, and PS explained the highest deviance in diversity-rich ecoregions of China. Our results suggests that the highest number of gymnosperms species was found in the southwestern and Taiwan regions of China distributed at the 1,600- and 2,800-m elevation bands. These regions could be under severe stress in the near future due to expected changes in precipitation pattern and increase of temperature due to climate change. Thus, our study provided evidence of the species–climate relationship that can support the understanding of future conservation planning of gymnosperms.

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