Climate change jointly with migration ability affect future range shifts of dominant fir species in Southwest China

Abstract

Aim As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that is Abies recurvata, Abies faxoniana, Abies squamata, Abies ernestii, Abies forrestii and Abies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions. Location The mountains of Southwest China. Methods We applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios). Results The simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas of Abies recurvata were projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC. Main conclusions Benefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future.

Contrasting Gymnosperm Diversity Across an Elevation Gradient in the Ecoregion of China: The Role of Temperature and Productivity

“…However, the longest elevational range of Eco 27, 33, and 34 provided a suitable habitat for species distribution and helped in the formation of the most common pattern of species richness in the mountainous regions of China. In general, our results were consistent with previous studies that the southwestern and Taiwan regions of China are rich in the distribution of plant species at various degrees (Vetaas and Grytnes, 2002;Meng et al, 2012;Gao et al, 2017;Liu et al, 2017;Shrestha et al, 2017;Geng et al, 2019;Liao et al, 2020;Pandey et al, 2020a). Our study also showed that the East Manchurian region (Eco12), Central China -Loess plateau (Eco 19) The southwestern region is highly significant in terms of plant species diversity featuring a high number of species and a high level of endemism (Wu and Raven, 1999;Ying et al, 2004;Li et al, 2009).…”

Energy–water and seasonal variations in climate underlie the spatial distribution patterns of gymnosperm species richness in China

“…Moreover, Dakhil et al (2019) reported the significant role of the climatic stability of the warmest quarter during the Quaternary Period (until now). This climatic stability is an ecological indicator of the range stability of cold temperate conifers in the high elevation regions of southwestern China, including the eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau (Liao et al, 2020). Climatic variability and unsystematic changes in daily maximum and minimum temperature increase the level of tolerance of an organism by altering the thermal environment that organisms experience, thus enabling them to become geographically widespread.…”

Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

“…The main determinant of species niche is climate variables, which are often used for plant niche modeling [41,42]. The LIG, LGM, MH, current and future climate data were downloaded from the WorldClim database [43].…”