Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

Abstract

Semiliquidambar cathayensis is a special and endangered plant in China, used for traditional Chinese medicine and in landscape applications. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of S. cathayensis is crucial for its protection and the sustainable use of resources. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model optimized by the ENMeval data packet to analyze the potential geographic distribution changes of S. cathayensis in 12 provinces of Southern China for the different periods since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). Considering the potential geographic distribution changes in the province, and based on the two climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5, the distribution range of S. cathayensis was analyzed and we predicted the range for the 2050s (average for 2041–2060) and 2070s (average for 2061–2080). The area under AUC (Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) is 0.9388 under these parameters, which indicates that the model is very accurate. We speculate that the glacial period refugia were the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains for S. cathayensis, and central and Western Fujian and Taiwan are likely to be the future climate refugia. In the mid-Holocene (MH, 6 ka), the growth habitat was 32.41% larger than the modern habitat; in the 2050s and 2070s (except RCP2.6–2070s), the growth habitat will shrink to varying degrees, so efforts to support its in situ and ex situ conservation are urgently needed. The jackknife test showed that the main factors affecting the geographical distribution of S. cathayensis were annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, and precipitation of the driest month. The annual precipitation may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of S. cathayensis. In general, the centroid of the distribution of S. cathayensis will move northward. The centroid of the adaptive habitats will move northward with the highest degree of climate abnormality. We think that Hainan Island is the most likely origin of S. cathayensis. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of genetic resources protection measures, the construction of core germplasm resources, and the study of the formation and evolution of Hamamelidaceae.

Impact of Past and Future Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of an Endangered Montane Shrub Lonicera oblata and Its Conservation Implications

“…Subsequently, in the MH, the distribution of L. oblata was similar to that of the present, but area of the suitable habitats was relatively smaller (Figures 3A,B and 4). This may be caused by the fact that the average annual temperature in the MH was slightly higher than that during modern times [87]. The expansion of the potential distribution area in the LIG and…”

“…Subsequently, in the MH, the distribution of L. oblata was similar to that of the present, but area of the suitable habitats was relatively smaller (Figures 3A,B and 4). This may be caused by the fact that the average annual temperature in the MH was slightly higher than that during modern times [87]. The expansion of the potential distribution area in the LIG and LGM in southwest and central China, such as in southeastern Gansu, the Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi, northwestern Henan, and southern Shanxi, was mostly lost in the MH (Figure 3).…”

Integrating Habitat Suitability and the Near-Nature Restoration Priorities into Revegetation Plans Based on Potential Vegetation Distribution

“…While researching the plant habitat suitability models, most scholars only use climatic factors to establish models [59][60][61]. This study combines climatic factors and topographic factors for model simulation and found that for small-scale vegetation habitat suitability studies, the slope degree may also be an important factor that needs to be adopted, and this factor has been seldom considered in the previous studies.…”

Mitochondrial composition of and diffusion limiting factors of three social wasp genera Polistes, Ropalidia, and Parapolybia (Hymenoptera: Vespidae)

“…The last Ice Age ended at the beginning of the Holocene (0.015 Ma), and then the climate in the Holocene (0.015 Ma-present) became warmer, which was similar to the present-day climate [83]. As the climate getting warmer, some animals and plants migrated backward to the north [84]. Currently, there are a few of Polistes and few of both Ropalidia and Parapolybia distributed in the areas covered by ice sheets during Quaternary Ice Ages.…”