Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)

Jinga, Percy; Liao, Ziyan; Nobis, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01908

Cited by 10 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Overall, our study adds to accumulating evidence [ 10 , 12 , 13 , 19 ] that building ENMs at the species-level can lead to misleading predictions for certain populations and genetic populations in the face of climate change. The lack of a “single niche” for the species emphasizes the large extent to which improvements depend not only on the inclusion of genetic information but also on the type and selection of predictor variables that interact with that genetic information.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…Overall, our study adds to accumulating evidence [10,12,13,19] that building ENMs at the species-level can lead to misleading predictions for certain populations and genetic…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Researchers can incorporate intraspecific variation into distribution models with knowledge of phenotypic groups, taxonomic units, genetic groups, or biogeographic regions [2,9] and intraspecific models can then be compared to each other and to species-wide models for a better understanding of lineage-level differences in climatic-drivers of distribution and potential consequences of climate change [2,10]. With information from these types of model comparisons, however, we can better identify where, and which, populations, communities, and ecosystems are most at risk to climate change [11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Species are not uniform entities across their geographic distributions, with common examples of locally adapted populations spread across geographic ranges and environmental gradients [14][15][16]. Accommodating this information in models is critical as locally adapted populations are likely to respond differently to environmental change, which would have implications for shifting species' distributions and range limits [10,12,13,[17][18][19]. Differing responses of separate populations to environmental change thus violates the major assumption of traditional ENMs that the niche of a species is also the niche of distinct populations [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Aggregate population-level models informed by genetics predict more suitable habitat than traditional species-level model across the range of a widespread riparian tree

et al. 2022

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Identifying and predicting how species ranges will shift in response to climate change is paramount for conservation and restoration. Ecological niche models are the most common method used to estimate potential distributions of species; however, they traditionally omit knowledge of intraspecific variation that can allow populations to respond uniquely to change. Here, we aim to test how population X environment relationships influence predicted suitable geographic distributions by comparing aggregated population-level models with species-level model predictions of suitable habitat within population ranges and across the species’ range. We also test the effect of two variable selection methods on these predictions–both addressing the possibility of local adaptation: Models were built with (a) a common set, and number, of predictors and, (b) a unique combination and number of predictors specific to each group’s training extent. Our study addresses the overarching hypothesis that populations have unique environmental niches, and specifically that (1) species-level models predict more suitable habitat within the ranges of genetic populations than individual models built from those groups, particularly when compared models are built with the same set of environmental predictors; and (2) aggregated genetic population models predict more suitable habitat across the species’ range than the species-level model, an = d this difference will increase when models are trained with individualized predictors. We found the species models predicted more habitat within population ranges for two of three genetic groups regardless of variable selection, and that aggregated population models predicted more habitat than species’ models, but that individualized predictors increased this difference. Our study emphasizes the extent to which changes to model predictions depend on the inclusion of genetic information and on the type and selection of predictors. Results from these modeling decisions can have broad implications for predicting population-level ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…Overall, our study adds to accumulating evidence [10,12,13,19] that building ENMs at the species-level can lead to misleading predictions for certain populations and genetic…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Aggregate population-level models informed by genetics predict more suitable habitat than traditional species-level model across the range of a widespread riparian tree

et al. 2022

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“…One caveat is that subspecies may be genetically suited to the climate of their location and species-level modeling may be inadequate to provide relevant conservation and management information for subspecies (Jinga et al 2021). Here, I separated the historical range of the Plains bison from the more northern wood bison (B. bison athabascae; Gates et al 2010), albeit these subspecies have intermixed in intentional conservation efforts (Gates et al 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A solution for perfect bioclimate envelopes that are imperfect for extirpated species

Hanberry

2023

Environ. Res.: Ecology

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Present-day species distributions modeled with climate variables cannot provide potential future climate space for species that have contracted in range due to extirpations, regardless of abundant sample sizes within current ranges. My objective was to examine effects of range contractions on modeling of species to determine suitable space under climate change, exploring different approaches to modeling based on historical range maps. As examples of this issue, I estimated the current and future bioclimate envelopes of American bison (Bison bison) and elk (Cervus elaphus) from their current reduced ranges in the western United States compared to historical ranges immediately before extirpation. One solution for bioclimate envelope modeling is to generate presence samples from the historical range and pseudoabsence samples from outside of the historical range. By using the fullest climate space, the models identified areas of future suitable climate space that otherwise would be underpredicted (10% to 27% of climate space, for these two examples) based on current ranges of species that have been extirpated from their historical range. Range contraction substantially reduced predictions of suitable climatic space under climate change. Therefore, species need to be evaluated for range extirpation before determining potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity conservation.

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Variable intraspecific response to climate change in a medicinally important African tree species, Vachellia sieberiana (DC.) (paperbark thorn)

Jinga,

Manyangadze

2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change is predicted to disproportionately impact sub‐Saharan Africa, with potential devastating consequences on plant populations. Climate change may, however, impact intraspecific taxa differently. The aim of the study was to determine the current distribution and impact of climate change on three varieties of Vachellia sieberiana, that is, var. sieberiana, var. villosa and var. woodii. Ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were built in “biomod2” using 66, 45, and 137 occurrence records for var. sieberiana, var. villosa, and var. woodii, respectively. The ensemble SDMs were projected to 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 under three general circulation models (GCMs) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The three GCMs were the Canadian Earth System Model version 5, the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace Climate Model version 6A Low Resolution, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6. The suitable habitat of var. sieberiana predominantly occurs in the Sudanian and Zambezian phytochoria while that of var. villosa largely occurs in the Sudanian phytochorion. The suitable habitat of var. woodii mainly occurs in the Zambezian phyotochorion. There is coexistence of var. villosa and var. sieberiana in the Sudanian phytochorion while var. sieberiana and var. woodii coexist in the Zambezian phytochorion. Under SSP2‐4.5 in 2041–2060 and averaged across the three GCMs, the suitable habitat expanded by 33.8% and 119.7% for var. sieberiana and var. villosa, respectively. In contrast, the suitable habitat of var. woodii contracted by −8.4%. Similar trends were observed in 2041–2060 under SSP5‐8.5 [var. sieberiana (38.6%), var. villosa (139.0%), and var. woodii (−10.4%)], in 2081–2100 under SSP2‐4.5 [var. sieberiana (4.6%), var. villosa (153.4%), and var. woodii (−14.4%)], and in 2081–2100 under SSP5‐8.5 [var. sieberiana (49.3%), var. villosa (233.4%), and var. woodii (−30.7%)]. Different responses to climate change call for unique management and conservation decisions for the varieties.

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Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)

Cited by 10 publications

References 64 publications

Aggregate population-level models informed by genetics predict more suitable habitat than traditional species-level model across the range of a widespread riparian tree

Aggregate population-level models informed by genetics predict more suitable habitat than traditional species-level model across the range of a widespread riparian tree

A solution for perfect bioclimate envelopes that are imperfect for extirpated species

Variable intraspecific response to climate change in a medicinally important African tree species, Vachellia sieberiana (DC.) (paperbark thorn)

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