Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for forecasting the future dynamics and distribution of pests, diseases and biological diversity. Although ecologists have long acknowledged species' direct physiological and demographic responses to climate, more recent work suggests that these direct responses can be overwhelmed by indirect effects mediated via other interacting community members. Theory suggests that some of the most dramatic impacts of community change will probably arise through the assembly of novel species combinations after asynchronous migrations with climate. Empirical tests of this prediction are rare, as existing work focuses on the effects of changing interactions between competitors that co-occur today. To explore how species' responses to climate warming depend on how their competitors migrate to track climate, we transplanted alpine plant species and intact plant communities along a climate gradient in the Swiss Alps. Here we show that when alpine plants were transplanted to warmer climates to simulate a migration failure, their performance was strongly reduced by novel competitors that could migrate upwards from lower elevation; these effects generally exceeded the impact of warming on competition with current competitors. In contrast, when we grew the focal plants under their current climate to simulate climate tracking, a shift in the competitive environment to novel high-elevation competitors had little to no effect. This asymmetry in the importance of changing competitor identity at the leading versus trailing range edges is best explained by the degree of functional similarity between current and novel competitors. We conclude that accounting for novel competitive interactions may be essential to predict species' responses to climate change accurately.

Most studies of invasive species have been in highly modified, lowland environments, with comparatively little attention directed to less disturbed, high‐elevation environments. However, increasing evidence indicates that plant invasions do occur in these environments, which often have high conservation value and provide important ecosystem services. Over a thousand non‐native species have become established in natural areas at high elevations worldwide, and although many of these are not invasive, some may pose a considerable threat to native mountain ecosystems. Here, we discuss four main drivers that shape plant invasions into high‐elevation habitats: (1) the (pre‐)adaptation of non‐native species to abiotic conditions, (2) natural and anthropogenic disturbances, (3) biotic resistance of the established communities, and (4) propagule pressure. We propose a comprehensive research agenda for tackling the problem of plant invasions into mountain ecosystems, including documentation of mountain invasion patterns at multiple scales, experimental studies, and an assessment of the impacts of non‐native species in these systems. The threat posed to high‐elevation biodiversity by invasive plant species is likely to increase because of globalization and climate change. However, the higher mountains harbor ecosystems where invasion by non‐native species has scarcely begun, and where science and management have the opportunity to respond in time.

Nonnative species richness typically declines along environmental gradients such as elevation. It is usually assumed that this is because few invaders possess the necessary adaptations to succeed under extreme environmental conditions. Here, we show that nonnative plants reaching high elevations around the world are not highly specialized stress tolerators but species with broad climatic tolerances capable of growing across a wide elevational range. These results contrast with patterns for native species, and they can be explained by the unidirectional expansion of nonnative species from anthropogenic sources at low elevations and the progressive dropping out of species with narrow elevational amplitudes-a process that we call directional ecological filtering. Independent data confirm that climatic generalists have succeeded in colonizing the more extreme environments at higher elevations. These results suggest that invasion resistance is not conferred by extreme conditions at a particular site but determined by pathways of introduction of nonnative species. In the future, increased direct introduction of nonnative species with specialized ecophysiological adaptations to mountain environments could increase the risk of invasion. As well as providing a general explanation for gradients of nonnative species richness and the importance of traits such as phenotypic plasticity for many invasive species, the concept of directional ecological filtering is useful for understanding the initial assembly of some native floras at high elevations and latitudes.altitudinal gradient | dispersal | invasibility | nestedness | Rapoport effect S everal factors are known to shape species richness patterns along elevational gradients, notably energetic constraints on primary productivity and species-area relationships (1, 2). However, these factors are often highly correlated, making it difficult to assign causality, especially because species richness patterns are the result of both contemporary and historical ecological and evolutionary forces. High-elevation floras are typically composed of species with narrow climatic ranges and specialized ecophysiological adaptations to low temperatures, such as low stature, slow growth rates, and freezing resistance (3). Because richness gradients emerge from the overlap of individual species ranges, some authors have generated null models for richness patterns by assuming that species ranges are placed at random within a bounded elevational domain (4, 5). This usually produces a mid-domain effect, with richness peaking at mid-elevations where the overlap of species ranges is greatest. Indeed, such mid-elevation peaks do occur, and at least some of them can be explained by the overlap at ecotones of species adapted to different parts of the gradient (6).Although there is a long tradition of studies on elevational richness patterns of native species, little is known about similar phenomena in nonnative species. Nearly 1,000 nonnative plant species have been recorded from mountains throughout t...

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.

Biologists have recently devoted increasing attention to the role of rapid evolution in species' responses to environmental change. However, it is still unclear what evolutionary responses should be expected, at what rates, and whether evolution will save populations at risk of extinction. The potential of biological invasions to provide useful insights has barely been realised, despite the close analogies to species responding to global change, particularly climate change; in both cases, populations encounter novel climatic and biotic selection pressures, with expected evolutionary responses occurring over similar timescales. However, the analogy is not perfect, and invasive species are perhaps best used as an upper bound on expected change. In this article, we review what invasive species can and cannot teach us about likely evolutionary responses to global change and the constraints on those responses. We also discuss the limitations of invasive species as a model and outline directions for future research.

Aim To investigate how species richness and similarity of non-native plants varies along gradients of elevation and human disturbance.Location Eight mountain regions on four continents and two oceanic islands. MethodsWe compared the distribution of non-native plant species along roads in eight mountainous regions. Within each region, abundance of plant species was recorded at 41-84 sites along elevational gradients using 100-m 2 plots located 0, 25 and 75 m from roadsides. We used mixed-effects models to examine how local variation in species richness and similarity were affected by processes at three scales: among regions (global), along elevational gradients (regional) and with distance from the road (local). We used model selection and information criteria to choose best-fit models of species richness along elevational gradients. We performed a hierarchical clustering of similarity to investigate human-related factors and environmental filtering as potential drivers at the global scale. ResultsSpecies richness and similarity of non-native plant species along elevational gradients were strongly influenced by factors operating at scales ranging from 100 m to 1000s of km. Non-native species richness was highest in the New World regions, reflecting the effects of colonization from Europe. Similarity among regions was low and due mainly to certain Eurasian species, mostly native to temperate Europe, occurring in all New World regions. Elevation and distance from the road explained little of the variation in similarity. The elevational distribution of non-native species richness varied, but was always greatest in the lower third of the range. In all regions, non-native species richness declined away from roadsides. In three regions, this decline was steeper at higher elevations, and there was an interaction between distance and elevation. Main conclusionsBecause non-native plant species are affected by processes operating at global, regional and local scales, a multi-scale perspective is needed to understand their patterns of distribution. The processes involved include global dispersal, filtering along elevational gradients and differential establishment with distance from roadsides.

We discuss the apparent paradox that while introduced populations often adapt rapidly to conditions in the new range, it is normally assumed that the species’ niche remains unchanged. Focusing on plants, we argue that studies of the niche dynamics of alien species are useful for understanding the constraints acting on species in their native ranges, and vice versa. Most hypotheses about species ecological range margins are more consistent with there being a niche shift than niche stasis in the new range. After reviewing the evidence for niche shifts in alien species, we suggest that the probability of a shift occurring depends primarily upon the ecological and genetic processes limiting the species in its native range. For example, a fundamental niche shift might occur if introduced individuals are released from maladaptive gene flow from central populations, or if genetic diversity is increased by the mixing of individuals from different sources. In addition, other factors such as species characteristics, introduction history and conditions in the new range may also influence whether a niche shift occurs. Based on these considerations, we propose conditions under which niche shifts are most likely. Such understanding is important for predicting and mitigating current and future anthropogenic impacts on species ranges.

Climate change will likely reshuffle ecological communities, causing novel species interactions that could profoundly influence how populations and communities respond to changing conditions. Nonetheless, predicting the impacts of novel interactions is challenging, partly because many methods of inference are contingent on the current configuration of climatic variables and species distributions. Focusing on competition, we argue that experiments designed to quantify novel interactions in ways that can inform species distribution models are urgently needed, and suggest an empirical agenda to pursue this goal, illustrated using plants. An emerging convergence of ideas from macroecology and demographically focused competition theory offers opportunities to mechanistically incorporate competition into species distribution models, while forging closer ties between experimental ecology and macroecology.