Is ECB Communication Effective?

Rosa, Carlo; Verga, Giovanni

doi:10.2139/ssrn.621641

Cited by 25 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 7 publications

(6 reference statements)

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“…Gerlach (2004) develops a quantitative indicator from the assessment of inflation, economic activity and M3 growth in the editorial of the ECB's Monthly Bulletins, and finds that this indicator can explain interest-rate setting of the ECB. In a similar fashion, Rosa and Verga (2005) and Heinemann and Ullrich (2005) analyse the content of the ECB's introductory statements to the press conference following Governing Council meetings. They construct indicators for the monetary policy stance of the ECB based on the words used in the statements, and similarly show that the indicators can explain interest-rate setting, although they serve as substitutes, not as complements to macroeconomic variables in Taylor-type rules.…”

Section: Literature On Central Bank Communication and Decision-makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The timing of central bank communication

Ehrmann

Fratzscher

2007

European Journal of Political Economy

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Section: Literature On Central Bank Communication and Decision-makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The timing of central bank communication

Ehrmann

Fratzscher

2007

European Journal of Political Economy

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“…Furthermore, in the indicators constructed by Rosa and Verga (2005) and Heinemann and Ullrich (2005) the three sections monetary, real economy and prices, that are usually commented on separately in the statement, are not distinguished from each other. This is especially important as Berger et al (2006) for example find that these sub-indicators weight differently in the overall assessment of the ECB.…”

Section: Financial Market Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rosa and Verga (2005) examine responses of short-term interest rates towards changes in a risk index which they set up out of introductory statements of the ECB. They find that communication has an effect on short-term money market interest rates.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations

Lamla

Rupprecht

2006

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. (2006), that quantifies the contents of the ECB's introductory statements, we find that communication affects the term structure of interest rates in the medium run over a horizon between five months to one year. Our results suggest that financial market agents expect the ECB to prepare them for a change in interest rates well in advance. However, judging upon the dynamics of the response, the exact timing of a decision is less foreseeable. Disentangling the effects of ECB statements on prices, the real and the monetary sector, we provide evidence that especially the ECB's interpretation and forecasts of price developments represent important news to financial market agents. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may JEL classification: E43, E44, E58

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“…These can impact developments in the financial markets [35][36][37][38] and directly influence private sector expectations and are used to signal interest rate changes [39,40]. The communications of the ECB also increase the predictability of interest rate decisions [41], being generally considered trustworthy and understandable by the public [42].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping discursive dynamics of the financial crisis: a structural perspective of concept roles in semantic networks

Nerghes¹,

Lee

Groenewegen³

et al. 2015

Compu Social Networks

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Background/purpose: Convenient access to vast and untapped collections of documents generated by organizations is a highly valuable resource for research. These documents (e.g., press releases) are a window into organizational strategies, communication patterns, and organizational behavior. However, the analysis of large document corpora requires appropriate automated methods for text mining and analysis that are able to take into account the redundant and predictable nature of formalized discourse. Methods: We use a combination of semantic network analysis and network centrality measures to overcome these particular challenges and to explore the dynamic structural space of concepts in formalized documents pertaining to the recent financial crisis. Data: For our analyses, we collect the press releases of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the United States' Federal Reserve System (Fed) issued between 2006 and 2013 in order to examine their semantic networks before, during, and after the recent financial crisis. Their press releases are notably impactful in their influence on other financial institutions and society at large, especially during times of financial volatility. Results: The structural space created from joint centrality metrics reveals salient shifts in the discursive practices of the ECB and Fed. In particular, the Fed exhibits greater attentiveness to the financial crisis especially during the crisis itself, while the ECB's attention is delayed and increasing steadily. Furthermore, we show both the Fed's and the ECB's discourse transitioning into a new "hybrid" state, rather than returning to the pre-crisis status quo. Conclusions: Examining the semantic networks of organizational text documents, we find that our analytic approach reveals important discursive shifts, which would not have been discovered under traditional text-analytic approaches. We demonstrate the utility of this approach in investigating large text corpora of organizational discourse, and we anticipate our methods to be comparably valuable in the analysis of a large spectrum of formal and informal discourse.

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Is ECB Communication Effective?

Cited by 25 publications

References 7 publications

The timing of central bank communication

The timing of central bank communication

The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations

Mapping discursive dynamics of the financial crisis: a structural perspective of concept roles in semantic networks

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