Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin

Abstract

Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate change on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote wildfire activity remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency of two heatinduced fire-weather types that have been related to the largest wildfires in recent years. Heatinduced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate (heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14% by the end of the century (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5, suggesting that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin.

A Practical Method for High-Resolution Burned Area Monitoring Using Sentinel-2 and VIIRS

“…Forest fires have long been part of the Mediterranean landscape and will continue to be so in the future. Climate change only worsens this problem as the meteorological conditions for severe fires become more and more likely in a warming scenario [3,4]. In this context, having the tools for a timely high-resolution assessment of the burned areas is of paramount importance.…”

“…Wildfires are a natural hazard with important impacts in ecosystems and human populations (e.g., [1,2]). Mediterranean Europe is regularly affected by wildfires, a trend that is poised to increase according to the range of climate change scenarios [3,4]. Monitoring the areas burned by wildfires with high resolution is of paramount importance for damage assessment and forest management [5,6], and fire danger and propagation forecasts [7].…”

Coexistent Heteroblastic Needles of Adult Pinus canariensis C.Sm. ex DC. in Buch Trees Differ Structurally and Physiologically

“…Although sometimes misused in the bibliography, and as clarified in recent reviews [2][3][4], leaf heteroblasty differs from heterophylly, which is a case of phenotypic plasticity exhibited as leaf form alteration in response to environmental conditions such as light intensity and quality, ambient temperature, and water availability [3,4]. on the capacity of this species to endure forest fires that are expected to increase their frequency in future Mediterranean climate conditions [32]. P. canariensis is one of the five in the genus known to resprout in adult stages together with P. rigida, P. serotina, P. leiophylla and P. patula [20,33,34].…”

A Practical Approach to Assess the Wildfire Ignition and Spreading Capacities of Vegetated Areas at Landscape-scale

“…Climate change and global warming are expected to affect natural hazards like flooding and wildfires worldwide. These may have multiplied domino effect consequences on other natural and urban systems leading to severe disasters at local scales [1][2][3] . While the emergence of flooding events relies mostly on the weather conditions and the natural/ artificial properties of the catchment area, wildfires implicate human behavioral activities.…”

“…A more recent study presents the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on the wildfire regimes in a wildfireprone region like the Mediterranean 3,17 . The authors report a significant decrease in the total burned area during this period compared to the estimations that counted for similar drought-related circumstances to previous years.…”