March monthly accumulated precipitation in the central and western regions of the Iberian Peninsula presents a clear continuous decline of 50% during the 1960-97 period. A finer analysis using daily data reveals that this trend is exactly confined to the month of March. However, this is merely the most visible aspect of a larger phenomenon over the North Atlantic/European sector. The European precipitation trends in March for the period 1960-2000 show a clear distribution of increasing precipitation in the northern regions (the British Isles and parts of Scandinavia) together with decreasing trends throughout the western Mediterranean Basin.Relevant circulation changes over the North Atlantic and European sectors explain these precipitation trends. First, a regional Eulerian approach by means of a weather-type (WT) classification shows that the major rainfall contributors in March display significantly decreasing frequencies for the Iberian Peninsula, in contrast to the corresponding "wet" weather types for the U.K./Ireland sector, which display increasing frequencies. Within a larger context, a Lagrangian approach, based on the analysis of storm tracks over Europe and the North Atlantic region, reveals dramatic changes in the location of cyclones in the last four decades that coincide with the corresponding precipitation trends in Europe. The North Atlantic Oscillation is suggested to be the most important large-scale factor controlling both the circulation changes and the precipitation trends over the Euro-Atlantic area in March. Finally, the potential impact of reduced precipitation for rivers and water resources in the Iberian Peninsula is considered.

Abstract. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on both the winter precipitation and the temporal occurrence of different landslide types in Portugal. The analysis is applied to five sample areas located just north of Lisbon, the capital of Portugal. These sites are particularly relevant because actual dates of most of the recent landslide events are known but also because the landslides occurred in a suburban area with growing urbanization pressure.Results show that the large inter-annual variability of winter precipitation observed in western Iberia, i.e. Portugal and parts of Spain, is largely modulated by the NAO mode. In particular, precipitation falling in Portugal between November and March presents a correlation coefficient of R=−0.66 with the NAO index. Precipitation distribution for the reference rain gauge in the study area reveals that the probability of a wet month to occur is much higher for low NAO index composites than for the corresponding high NAO index composite. It is shown that this control, exerted by NAO on the precipitation regime, is related to corresponding changes in the associated activity of North-Atlantic storm tracks that affect the western Iberia.Landslide activity in the study area is related to both intense, short duration precipitation events (1-15 days) and long-lasting rainfall episodes (1-3 months). The former events trigger shallow translational slides while the later episodes are usually associated with deeper and larger slope movements. This second group of landslides is shown to be statistically associated with the 3-month average of the NAO index.

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[1] The summer of 2003 was characterised by exceptionally warm weather in Europe with the average temperature exceeding that of any previous summer over the last 500 years. The seasonal 2003 summer temperature for central Europe was beyond the historical distribution range and could bear a closer resemblance with climate change scenarios for late XXI century. Nevertheless, it was the heatwave that occurred between the 1st and the 15th of August 2003 that had a major impact in excessive mortality rates throughout Europe, with catastrophic amplitude in France. Here we show, on a daily basis, when and where the magnitude and spatial extent of this heatwave episode has surpassed previous historical maxima, and that this episode is associated with an equally maximum blocking pattern over western Europe. Finally we show that surface and low troposphere air temperature anomalies are particularly well associated with the increased mortality rates in France.

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The Mediterranean storm track constitutes a well-defined branch of the North Hemisphere storm track and is characterised by small but intense features and frequent cyclogenesis. The goal of this study is to assess the level of consensus among cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs), to identify robust features and to explore sources of disagreement. A set of 14 CDTMs has been applied for computing the climatology of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region using the ERA-Interim dataset for the period 1979Á2008 as common testbed. Results show large differences in actual cyclone numbers identified by different methods, but a good level of consensus on the interpretation of results regarding location, annual cycle and trends of cyclone tracks. Cyclogenesis areas such as the northwestern Mediterranean, North Africa, north shore of the Levantine basin, as well as the seasonality of their maxima are robust features on which methods show a substantial agreement. Differences among methods are greatly reduced if cyclone numbers are transformed to a dimensionless index, which, in spite of disagreement on mean values and interannual variances of cyclone numbers, reveals a consensus on variability, sign and significance of trends. Further, excluding 'weak' and 'slow' cyclones from the computation of cyclone statistics improves the agreement among CDTMs. Results show significant negative trends of cyclone frequency in spring and positive trends in summer, whose contrasting effects compensate each other at annual scale, so that there is no significant long-term trend in total cyclone numbers in the Mediterranean basin in the 1979Á2008 period.

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Land surface energetic partitioning between latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes determines climate and influences the terrestrial segment of land-atmosphere coupling. Soil moisture, among other variables, has a direct influence on this partitioning. Dry surfaces characterize a water-limited regime where evapotranspiration and soil moisture are coupled. This coupling is subdued for wet surfaces, or an energy-limited regime. This framework is commonly evaluated using the evaporative fraction--soil moisture relationship. However, this relationship is explicitly or implicitly prescribed in land surface models. These impositions, in turn, confound model-based evaluations of energetic partitioning--soil moisture relationships. In this study, we use satellite-based observations of surface temperature diurnal amplitude (directly related to available energy partitioning) and soil moisture, free of model impositions, to estimate characteristics of surface energetic partitioning--soil moisture relationships during 10--20-day surface drying periods across Africa. We specifically estimate the spatial patterns of water-limited energy flux sensitivity to soil moisture (m) and the soil moisture threshold separating water and energy-limited regimes (θ*). We also assess how time evolution of other factors (e.g., solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit, surface albedo, and wind speed) can confound the energetic partitioning--soil moisture relationship. We find higher m in drier regions and interestingly similar spatial θ* distributions across biomes. Vapor pressure deficit and insolation increases during drying tend to increase m. Only vapor pressure deficit increases in the Sahelian grasslands systematically decrease θ*. Ultimately, soil and atmospheric moisture availability together play the largest role in land surface energy partitioning with minimal consistent influences of time evolution of other forcings.Plain Language Summary Whether available, incoming solar energy is used for evaporating surface water, or surface heating largely depends on water availability across the landscape. Under dry conditions (water limitation), increasing soil moisture increases evaporation and surface cooling. In this regime, droughts and heatwaves can be initiated and sustained because drying is positively reinforced. Under wetter conditions (energy limitation), increasing soil moisture does not generally influence evaporation. Climate models rely on these soil moisture-evaporation relationships to describe associations between water and energy cycles and predict future climate. However, due to difficulty observing evaporation at large scales, these relationships assume different forms across climate models which contribute to divergences and uncertainty in making climate projections. We use satellite observations of soil moisture and daily temperature range (quantifying surface heating; inversely related to evaporation) to evaluate these relationships free of model impositions across Africa. Following rain events during surface drying, da...