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Abstract. We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological factors by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and is estimated using a daily model based on a generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated with daily probability estimated by the daily model. The model is calibrated using 13 years of data (2004–2016) and validated against the period of January–September 2017. Results obtained show that about 72 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the “extreme” class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than 1.5 times the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.

The Fire Weather Index (FWI) is widely used to assess the meteorological fire danger in several ecosystems worldwide. One shortcoming of the FWI is that only surface weather conditions are considered, despite the important role often played by atmospheric instability in the development of very large wildfires. In this work, we focus on the Iberian Peninsula for the period spanning 2004–2018. We show that atmospheric instability, assessed by the Continuous Haines Index (CHI), can be used to improve estimates of the probability of exceedance of energy released by fires. To achieve this, we consider a Generalized Pareto (GP) model and we show that by stepwisely introducing the FWI and then the CHI as covariates of the GP parameters, the model is improved at each stage. A comprehensive comparison of results using the GP with the FWI as a covariate and the GP with both the FWI and CHI as covariates allowed us to then define a correction to the FWI, dependent on the CHI, that we coined enhanced FWI (FWIe). Besides ensuring a better performance of this improved FWI version, it is important to stress that the proposed FWIe incorporates efficiently the effect of atmospheric instability into an estimation of fire weather danger and can be easily incorporated into existing systems.

Mapping burned areas using satellite imagery has become a subject of extensive research over the past decades. The availability of high-resolution satellite data allows burned area maps to be produced with great detail. However, their increasing spatial resolution is usually not matched by a similar increase in the temporal domain. Moreover, high-resolution data can be a computational challenge. Existing methods usually require downloading and processing massive volumes of data in order to produce the resulting maps. In this work we propose a method to make this procedure fast and yet accurate by leveraging the use of a coarse resolution burned area product, the computation capabilities of Google Earth Engine to pre-process and download Sentinel-2 10-m resolution data, and a deep learning model trained to map the multispectral satellite data into the burned area maps. For a 1500 ha fire our method can generate a 10-m resolution map in about 5 min, using a computer with an 8-core processor and 8 GB of RAM. An analysis of six important case studies located in Portugal, southern France and Greece shows the detailed computation time for each process and how the resulting maps compare to the input satellite data as well as to independent reference maps produced by Copernicus Emergency Management System. We also analyze the feature importance of each input band to the final burned area map, giving further insight about the differences among these events.

We describe a methodology to discriminate burned areas and date burning events that use a burn-sensitive (V, W) index system defined in near-/mid-infrared space. Discrimination of burned areas relies on a monthly composite of minimum of W and on the difference between this composite and that of the previous month. The rationale is to identify pixels with high confidence of having burned and aggregate new burned pixels on a contextual basis. Dating of burning events is based on the analysis of time series of W, and searching for the day before maximum temporal separability is achieved. The procedure is applied to the fire of Monchique, a large event that took place in the southwest of Portugal in August 2018. When the obtained pattern of burned pixels is compared against a reference map, the overall accuracy is larger than 99%; the commission and omission errors are lower than 5 and 10%, respectively; and the bias and the Dice coefficient are above 0.95 and 0.9, respectively. Differences between estimated dates of burning and reference dates derived from remote-sensed observations of active fires show a bias of 0.03 day and a root mean square difference of 0.24 day.

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Abstract. We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean 10Europe aiming to improve state-of-the art modelling skills for classes of high fire danger. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts, as provided by the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Fire danger is estimated based on daily probabilities of exceedance of daily energy released by fires occurring at the pixel level. Daily probability considers meteorological information by means of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) 15and is estimated using a Daily Model based on a Generalized Pareto distribution. Five classes of fire danger are then associated to daily probability estimated by the Daily Model. The model is calibrated using seven years of data (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016) and validated against the period of January-August 2017. Results obtained show that about 80 % of events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the "Extreme" class of fire danger, a considerably high fraction that is more than the double of the values obtained when using the currently operational Fire Danger Forecast module of the European Forest Fire Information System 20 (EFFIS) or the Fire Risk Map (FRM) product disseminated by the LSA SAF. Besides assisting in wildfire management, the procedure is expected to help in decision making on prescribed burning within the framework of agricultural and forest management practices.